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Articles Tagged Toronto Blue Jays 

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06-28

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2

Prospectus Feature: Tulo's Bat Is As Cold As The Rockies
by
Aaron Gleeman

06-27

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1

What You Need to Know: Sometimes You Win, Sometimes You Hit Seven Homers and Lose
by
Ashley Varela

06-26

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0

BP Toronto
by
Dave Church

06-07

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2

Life at the Margins: Stuff Your Scouting Report
by
Rian Watt

06-02

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3

Prospectus Feature: The One Who Got Away
by
Aaron Gleeman

06-02

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2

Transaction Analysis: Walsh Revolution
by
Rian Watt, James Fegan and Matthew Trueblood

05-24

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0

BP Toronto
by
Tammy Rainey

05-20

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3

What You Need to Know: So This Is Matt Harvey?
by
Nicolas Stellini

05-20

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1

Transaction Analysis: Nathan Trying To Be Famous Again
by
Bryan Grosnick

05-16

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22

Pebble Hunting: The 14 Heroes Of Sunday's Odor/Bautista Brawl
by
Sam Miller

05-16

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1

What You Need to Know: Papi Endings
by
Ashley Varela

05-15

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0

BP Toronto
by
Eric Mercer

05-11

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2

What You Need to Know: I Have Seen The Royals, And That Team Last Night Was Not The Royals
by
Nicolas Stellini

05-06

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1

What You Need to Know: Yankees Find a New Way to Lose
by
Emma Baccellieri

05-02

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8

Players Prefer Presentation: Upon Further Review, We Will Never Be Happy
by
Meg Rowley

04-19

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2

What You Need to Know: Let's Roll It Up
by
Daniel Rathman

04-14

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3

Tools of the Trade
by
Jeff Long

04-06

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4

What You Need to Know: Noah Syndergaard and the 95 mph Slider
by
Emma Baccellieri

04-04

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2

What You Need to Know: The Race is Long, And in the End It's Only With Yourself
by
Ashley Varela

03-31

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5

Fifth Column: Freedom Brown
by
Michael Baumann

03-29

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Two Most Exciting Fifth Starters Named
by
Daniel Rathman

03-23

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1

Rubbing Mud: Injuries to Boston's Lefties Might Turn Out All Right
by
Matthew Trueblood

03-14

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5

Rumor Roundup: The Big Bad Bautista Extension
by
Ashley Varela

03-11

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0

BP Toronto
by
Michael Bradburn

03-07

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0

BP Toronto
by
Gideon Turk

03-03

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0

Rumor Roundup: Blue Jays Get Extendy
by
Demetrius Bell

03-01

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7

Life at the Margins: Things Are Looking Upside
by
Rian Watt

02-26

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2

Winter Is Leaving
by
Joshua Howsam and Matt Gwin

01-22

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19

Internet Baseball Awards: The Jokester-Free AL Player of the Year
by
Tom Tango

01-12

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7

Baseball Therapy: Put Russell In the Hall of Fame
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-11

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8

Transaction Analysis: Jays, Storen Each Get Relief
by
Bryan Grosnick and J.P. Breen

01-08

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10

Rubbing Mud: A's Who Are Jays Who Like A's To Be Jays
by
Matthew Trueblood

12-04

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5

Transaction Analysis: Shapiro Gets His Cleveland Fix
by
Rian Watt

11-20

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1

Ducks on the Pond: Last Year's Best Starter-To-Reliever Transition
by
Chris Mosch

11-09

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12

Prospectus Feature: Passed Balls and Wild Pitches: Getting It Right
by
Jonathan Judge

10-22

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3

Playoff Prospectus: Holy Cow It Almost Happened Again: ALCS Game 5
by
Sam Miller

10-20

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5

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Tuesday LCS Previews
by
Mike Gianella and Chris Mosch

10-19

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5

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Game 3 Preview
by
Matthew Trueblood

10-16

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10

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview: Royals vs. Blue Jays
by
R.J. Anderson

10-15

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18

Playoff Prospectus: We Are All Dead: ALDS Game 5
by
R.J. Anderson

10-14

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1

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Game 5 Previews and PECOTA Odds
by
Jeff Quinton and Matthew Trueblood

10-14

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1

Playoff Prospectus: Win Or Go Home: Hamels Vs. Stroman
by
Doug Thorburn

10-13

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9

Playoff Prospectus: The Greatest Mop-Up Man In Playoff History: ALDS Game 4
by
Kate Morrison

10-12

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0

Playoff Prospectus: Oh, *Those* Toronto Blue Jays: ALDS Game 3
by
Kate Morrison

10-10

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1

Playoff Prospectus: The Rougned Show Goes Long: ALDS Game 2
by
Kate Morrison

10-08

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0

Transaction Analysis: How the AL Division Champs Got Here
by
BP Staff

10-08

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9

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Rangers vs. Blue Jays
by
R.J. Anderson

05-04

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1

Transaction Analysis: Baby Blue Jays Crash To Earth
by
R.J. Anderson

03-30

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8

Every Team's Moneyball: Toronto Blue Jays: I Gotta Sell High, All The Time
by
Chris Mosch

03-20

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3

Rumor Roundup: Aaron-Starting Era Starting
by
Chris Mosch

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March 7, 2016 5:04 pm

BP Toronto

0

Gideon Turk

If Toronto wants to keep its best pitcher cost-controlled, the Jays will have to extend him soon.

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Edwin Encarnacion could be due for a reup, while A.J. Ellis could lose his job, if not his actual job.

Edwin Encarnacion and the Blue Jays have started up contract extension talks
This week, we’ve seen Kolten Wong and Salvador Perez each receive contract extensions. One of the next players to join them could be Encarnacion, a very different sort of player in a very different sort of situation. According to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, Toronto has extended inquiries; the extent of his interest is unknown; his extant commitment is through 2016; while an extenuating factor could be his age.

Even though Encarnacion is on the “wrong” side of 30, he’s done nothing but improve his most valuable asset—his power hitting. In the 2015 season, he hit .277/.372/.557 with a TAv of .324 and 39 home runs, up from .268/.354/.547, .310 TAv and 34 a year earlier. He might be just another weapon in a fearsome Blue Jays lineup, but he'd be good enough to be the best hitter in a championship-quality offense.


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March 1, 2016 6:00 am

Life at the Margins: Things Are Looking Upside

7

Rian Watt

Finding upside in the AL's lesser rotations.

This all began with R.A. Dickey, who’s projected (by PECOTA) for just 0.4 WARP next year. On the face of it, that seems rather odd. Here are Dickey’s WARP totals since 2010, complete and unabridged:

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February 26, 2016 6:00 am

Winter Is Leaving

2

Joshua Howsam and Matt Gwin

No, really: The Blue Jays mash.

A lot has changed in Toronto since their playoff run ended in October. Alex Anthopoulos has moved on to warmer places, David Price is taking the mound for Boston, and Ben Revere is suiting up for the Nats. The Jays have also made significant changes to the pitching staff, adding some desperately needed depth. While those additions are nice, they’re mostly window dressing, as the pitching is still only decent. Thankfully, the Jays only need mediocre pitching, because their hitters straight up mash.

The Blue Jays were a magnificent offensive team in 2015. We know it. You know it. Sam Dyson definitely knows it. But I don’t think many of us realized just how good Toronto’s hitters were last year. In addition to leading baseball in runs scored, the Jays led the league in HR, BB, SB%, TAv, and most other offensive statistics that you can think of. Basically, the offense could do it all. In order to fully visualize that, look no further than this fantastic tweet from Gideon Turk, which charts OBP against SLG.

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Did this year's IBA voters really prefer the player we said they preferred in a tight race?

I love crowdsourcing projects. I love them because they take virtually no effort to set up, and yet we get a huge amount of information out of them. They work because the voters are the ones doing all the work, and whatever biases they may have get cancelled out, so that we're left with a reasonable view of the perceived truth. That's if everyone is playing fair. Sometimes, the voters try to game the system.

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Start the bandwagon: The next criminally underrated HOF candidate is today's criminally underrated superstar.

I might be a little biased, but I think that if there’s something that last week’s Hall of Fame results needed, it was more inductees named Russell. With Russell Branyan not eligible for election (and in legal trouble), things have been looking kinda bleak. But something else happened in last week’s results that gives me hope. Other than that guy who’s going in with a backwards cap, catcher Mike Piazza finally got his spot in the Hall of Fame.

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January 11, 2016 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Jays, Storen Each Get Relief

8

Bryan Grosnick and J.P. Breen

Ben Revere is reunited with Jon Papelbon in Washington; Drew Storen bids good riddance.



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January 8, 2016 6:00 am

Rubbing Mud: A's Who Are Jays Who Like A's To Be Jays

10

Matthew Trueblood

Why do these two teams like each other's pitchers so much?

The A’s sold Arnold Leon on Tuesday, a fairly forgettable transaction involving a fairly forgettable (I’m so sorry, Leon family) pitcher. Few things are as unremarkable as the A’s letting another team have a marginal talent in exchange for some much-needed cash. I might not have taken note of this deal at all, but for the identity of the team taking on Leon: the Blue Jays. That makes this move stand out to me a little bit, for a simple reason: the Jays and A’s sure seem to like one another’s pitchers.

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December 4, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Shapiro Gets His Cleveland Fix

5

Rian Watt

The Toronto Blue Jays name a new GM.

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Probably not the one you're thinking of, if you're thinking of one at all.

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How a mystery that began with R.A. Dickey ended with a new, more precise way of measuring catcher performance.

Recently, we overhauled our approach to how we evaluate passed balls and wild pitches here at Baseball Prospectus. It started innocently enough, as an attempt to make our data better-behaved, but progressed to a gradual recognition that we—and as far as we can tell, plenty of others—have been taking the wrong approach to these events for quite some time. Today, we’ll talk about what we’ve learned, and how our models are much the better for it.

Background
It’s no secret that some catchers are better at blocking pitches than others. Yadier Molina seems to be pretty good at it, and Mike Zunino does not. But raw wild pitch and passed ball numbers can be unfair. The catcher, after all, is not the one throwing the pitch, and some pitching staffs are wilder than others, particularly if those pitchers like to throw certain pitches in certain places. The sabermetric community’s longstanding skepticism of official scoring has also led to the practice of combining passed balls and wild pitches for modeling purposes, even though the former are judged by the scorer to be the catcher’s fault, and the latter to be the fault of the pitcher.

As with all things sabermetric, the means of adjustment for these factors have become more sophisticated over time. At the simplest level, we could simply trust the official scorer, and assume the other factors largely balance out. A more sophisticated approach is the “With or Without You” method, which grades a catcher based on how he does without certain pitchers, or how pitchers do without various catchers. Going one step beyond, researchers have tried to identify relevant factors driving passed balls and wild pitches, incorporated them into models of “likely” passed ball/wild pitches versus “actual” such events, and then grading a catcher on the difference. FanGraphs has adopted a model created by Bojan Koprivica as the basis for its Runs per Passed Pitches (RPP) metric. (The parameters of that model appear to be proprietary, although Bojan does describe the relevant aspects). Finally, we unveiled our own blocking model last year, called “RPM WOWY”: a combination of PBWP likelihood, as determined by PitchInfo, followed by a WOWY assignment of credit among catchers and pitchers.

When we began incorporating mixed models into our catcher metrics earlier this year, we converted our catcher blocking model over as well, since it made sense to have all our catcher metrics on the same basic method. And so, throughout the 2015 season, we combined all of what we now call “errant pitches” into a linear mixed model, specified as follows in the R programming environment:

glmer(PBWP ~ log(prob) + (1|pitcher) + (1|catcher), family=binomial(link=’probit’)

The model was, frankly, a bit of an afterthought. We were focused more on converting RPM WOWY into our new framework rather than thinking it over from scratch. The log transformation of errant pitch probability (the former “RPM,” and the “prob” in the new blocking model) was added as much to assist convergence as anything else.


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The Blue Jays kept the series alive and, perhaps more importantly, kept David Price available.

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