Introducing the latest in the great line of Baseball Prospectus publications...The Call-Up 2012 e-book!
Like our bestselling annual, this mid-season debut provides the latest scoops and analysis to help fans follow their favorite teams and win their fantasy leagues. The e-book highlights the most notable teams and players of the season's first half, offering over 50 new player comments by 10 of your favorite BP authors, a preface by e-book editor Ben Lindbergh, and some of the best of BP's recent online articles, as well as rest-of-season PECOTA projections for all players profiled.
A look back and a look ahead to who could the top prosects in the senior circuit next year.
One of the most frequent questions I get, be it via e-mail, chats, or the comment sections in the articles, is which player on (insert team here) has the best shot at moving into the Top 101. That's a much different question from who is the best prospect not in the Top 101, as the focus need to move solely to growth potential. Building on last year's "Future Top Dogs" series, let's keep that category in this year's version, while also taking an honest look at last year's prognostications.
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Looking ahead to who could top next year's prospects lists in the junior loop.
One of the most frequent questions I get, be it via e-mail, chats, or the comment sections in the articles, is which player on [insert team here] has the best shot at moving into the Top 101. That's a much different question from who is the best prospect not in the Top 101, as the focus needs to move solely to growth potential. Building on last year's "Future Top Dogs" series, let's keep that category in this year's version, while also taking an honest list at last year's prognostications.
Counting down the top 15 farm systems armed with the most promising talent.
15. New York Mets Last Year’s Ranking: 18 Why They Are Here: The system is on the upswing, thanks to a nice group coming from the international market and, for the first time in a while, a draft class (2009) that looks like it will pay some dividends. With four Top 101 prospects and a three-star list that runs into the early teens, there's room for optimism here. Where They Will Be Next Year: The Mets could add another Top 50-type with the seventh overall pick in the draft, their highest slot since 2004, and fourth-highest pick in the last 25 years. Top prospects like Jenrry Mejia and Ike Davis have more of a 2011 timetable, so Fernando Martinez is the only top prospect likely to lose his eligibility this season.
It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.
The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners, and Athletics put together a blockbuster trade that has rarely been seen in baseball history: nine players will belong to new organizations next year, including two former Cy Young winners very much in their prime.
It's time to announce the winners of the 16th annual Internet Baseball Awards. More than 1,400 baseball fans from cyberspace participated in this effort to honor those players and managers whose performance in 2007 were most deserving.
Now that the team-by-team player rankings are over, Kevin tallies everything and ranks the organizations themselves.
I began by assigning points to each team for the talent it has, giving points at differing levels within the Excellent, Very Good, and Good labels used in the recently completed Top 10 lists. Additional points were granted for average prospects, as well as talent beyond their top 10 that would qualify for that level. The rankings you see here reflect the total raw points. In order to have a little fun with this, and in an attempt to provide some additional information, I then split the talent between hitting and pitching, found the average amount of hitting and pitching points, and then calculated the number of standard deviations above or below that average. Presto! Instant 20-80 scores for each category.
Nate finishes up his PECOTA-driven look at prospects with a few rankings, and some final thoughts.
Since the All-Star Game was first played in 1933, there have been 519 players who have been named to participate in the event at least three times. This constitutes a reasonable, if slightly arbitrary, definition of what we might consider to be a "star" performer; our apologies in advance to relatives of Tim Salmon and Bobby Abreu. If we divide that 519 figure by the number of seasons covered during this time period (73), we come up with 7.1 players that "graduate" to star status per year. That is, if we took a typical amateur draft class, we'd expect--give or take--seven players from that draft class to develop into stars.
We take a look inside the selection criteria for assembling our Top 50 Prospects list.
For example, BP's Top 50 from 2005, while not without flaws, was better than most. Sure there were pitchers ranked highly (Richie Gardner and Adam Miller) who succumbed to arm injuries. We had thought that Willy Aybar (#34) would develop some power by now and that Edwin Jackson (#45) would improve from his sub-par 2004. Despite those missteps, Baseball Prospectus is proud of the work that went into that list as well as the 2006 version.
With a verifiable cornucopia of prospect lists out in cyberspace, there of course exists a vast array of philosophies governing the compilation of these lists. The king of prospect sites, Baseball America, ranks prospects based on scouting reports, tools, upside, age vs. level of competition and performance. Other sites lean heavily on a player's walk rate. Take, for example, the case of second baseman Travis Denker, in the Dodgers' system. After Denker hit .310/.417/.556 in Low A as a 20-year-old, many sites had him among their top 50 and, in one case, much higher. With a BB/PA rate of .147, Denker has exhibited unusual plate discipline for a young prospect. However, what these lofty rankings ignored were his stone hands, iron glove, .155 EqA upon his promotion to High-A that year, and his PECOTA projections. When different ranking systems rate some pieces of the puzzle higher than other systems, wildly differing outcomes will result.