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03-22

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17

Fantasy Freestyle: ROI: Keeper League Edition
by
Mike Gianella

11-13

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37

Bizball: Ranking 10 MLB Relocation and Expansion Markets Shows Why Either is Difficult
by
Maury Brown

09-05

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6

Manufactured Runs: How Much Team Age Matters
by
Colin Wyers

02-29

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13

Prospectus Preview: AL Central 2012 Preseason Preview, Part Two
by
Steven Goldman and Ben Lindbergh

02-29

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12

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

02-22

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28

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Derek Carty and Michael Jong

02-20

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19

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

01-30

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20

The BP Broadside: Jorge Posada and the Third-String Yankees
by
Steven Goldman

01-18

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16

Heartburn Hardball: The Hawk and the Dragon
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

12-09

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23

Baseball ProGUESTus: Sunset in Flushing
by
Jonathan Bernhardt and Jarrett Seidler

11-08

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: When Good GMs Go Bad
by
Jonah Keri

10-20

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: The Importance of Being 1-0
by
Rany Jazayerli

10-06

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Is the Best of Five the Worst of Series?
by
Mike Carminati

08-22

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41

Changing Speeds: Ethical Bandwagon Jumping
by
Ken Funck

08-04

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9

Divide and Conquer, AL East: Destination Delusion
by
Dustin Parkes

04-21

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10

Fantasy Beat: Team Tracker, PFM, Scoresheet, and You
by
Rob McQuown

04-12

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14

Transaction Analysis: Never Enough Pitching
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-14

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36

Ahead in the Count: Battle for the Beltway
by
Matt Swartz

03-10

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4

Overthinking It: A Review of Jonah Keri's The Extra 2%
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-04

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5

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Impact of World Series Starts (or How Much Was Jack Morris Really Worth?)
by
Sean Smith

02-25

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7

Fantasy Beat: Scoresheet Draft Prep, BP Kings, and You
by
Rob McQuown

02-22

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5

Checking the Numbers: Paying the Premium
by
Eric Seidman

02-21

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16

Baseball ProGUESTus: Scorecasting Review
by
Phil Birnbaum

11-16

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3

Prospectus Q&A: J.C. Bradbury, Part I
by
David Laurila

10-27

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16

World Series Prospectus: Fall Classic Memories
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-15

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Richard A. Johnson
by
David Laurila

09-16

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13

Changing Speeds: Half a Team, Half a Team, Half a Team Onward
by
Ken Funck

08-01

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9

Transaction Analysis: Deadline Day Outcomes in the NL
by
Christina Kahrl and Kevin Goldstein

07-23

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28

Ahead in the Count: Buyers and Sellers
by
Matt Swartz

07-13

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11

One-Hoppers: Bluster and Luster: George Steinbrenner (1930-2010)
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

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6

Transaction Action: Shuffling Seniors
by
Christina Kahrl

07-02

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7

Transaction Action: Dealing and Decapitating
by
Christina Kahrl

06-30

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6

Transaction Action: Disorderly Conduct
by
Christina Kahrl

06-18

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5

Transaction Action: Waterloo's 195th Anniversary Edition
by
Christina Kahrl

06-04

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12

Ahead in the Count: No Turnover Standings Breakdown
by
Matt Swartz

03-22

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11

Transaction Action: Weekend Mayhem Edition
by
Christina Kahrl

03-16

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2

Transaction Action: Lefty-less and Zedliness
by
Christina Kahrl

03-15

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7

Transaction Action: Expanding and Contracting
by
Christina Kahrl

03-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Central Competitive Ecology
by
Jay Jaffe

02-23

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Central Competitive Ecology
by
Jay Jaffe

02-12

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL East Competitive Ecology
by
Jay Jaffe

01-25

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63

Prospectus Roundtable: Analyzing RoboPitcher
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-20

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9

Transaction Action: International Arbitration Avoidance Day
by
Christina Kahrl

12-21

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36

Ahead in the Count: When Bad Teams Land Good Free Agents
by
Matt Swartz

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

12-06

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25

Prospectus Today: NL Shopping Lists
by
Joe Sheehan

11-23

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20

Transaction Action: Fill'er Up!
by
Christina Kahrl

11-17

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32

Ahead in the Count: How To Make Up a Good Trade Rumor
by
Matt Swartz

11-13

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8

Transaction Action: Action and Reaction
by
Christina Kahrl

11-01

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8

You Could Look It Up: He Should Have Picked Lee
by
Steven Goldman

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

March 22, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: ROI: Keeper League Edition

17

Mike Gianella

Mike examines the merits of category dumping with two keeper-league scenarios.

In fantasy baseball, everyone’s burning question is “what does it take to win?” While a few might ask if it takes a certain kind of temperament or disposition to contend, most who ask this question are asking from the standpoint of how strong their roster should be to win a title.

In non-carryover leagues, this exercise is simple enough. You can set targets in every category in an attempt to finish with a certain number of points across the board. In a 12-team, 5x5 league, if 95 points is typically what it takes to win, your goal should be to finish third in every category. This would net you 100 points, and there’s a good chance—based on historical data—that this would put you atop the standings. As a general rule, I recommend not trying to dump categories in one-and-done leagues.: Since every category is available for purchase, unless there is a crazy draft or auction trend, you’re better off playing it straight.

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A look at the ten most likely places for a new MLB club

It seems that nearly every week, articles surrounding the potential relocation of the A’s and Rays surface. A panel looking into a potential San Jose relocation for the A’s has been gridlocked since 2009 (and remember, the A’s have been looking to move to San Jose for a heck of a lot longer than that). The Rays haven’t been far behind in their efforts to get out of Tropicana Field. Whether it’s the commute for fans to get to the domed stadium, the aesthetics, or the need to be closer to an urban core, it seems that Tampa Bay has been seeking a new ballpark for just as long. Relocation for these two clubs is crucial.

Another thing that comes up less frequently but has extra meaning going into 2013 is expansion. With the Astros moving into the AL West, the American League and National League will now be balanced at 15 clubs a piece. The problem is that 15 is an odd number, and as a result, interleague will become a daily affair. It’s unlikely that’s something that the league wanted, so getting to 32 clubs would take care of that matter. That would mean revenues spread thinner with two extra mouths to feed. Additionally, it’s no given that one or both wouldn’t be revenue-sharing takers, and trying to get ballparks built is no easy feat in this economy. So, 30 is a number that seems to suit the “Big Four” sports leagues in North America. The NBA has it. Ditto for the NHL. Currently, only the NFL—which has the advantage of being highly centralized (revenues are shared more evenly across the franchises) and exceptionally popular—is the exception at 32 clubs.

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September 5, 2012 5:00 am

Manufactured Runs: How Much Team Age Matters

6

Colin Wyers

How much should the age of a team's present roster affect our forecasts for its future success?

Alas! for this gray shadow, once a man—
So glorious in his beauty and thy choice,
Who madest him thy chosen, that he seem'd
To his great heart none other than a God!
I ask'd thee, "Give me immortality."
Then didst thou grant mine asking with a smile,
Like wealthy men who care not how they give.
But thy strong Hours indignant work'd their wills,
And beat me down and marr'd and wasted me,
And tho' they could not end me left me maim'd
To dwell in presence of immortal youth,
Immortal age beside immortal youth,
And all I was in ashes.
- “Tithonus,” by Alfred Tennyson

There is an uneasy overlap between sabermetric analysis and forecasting things to come. To be sure, not all prognostication (not even most of it, I would say) comes from sabermetricians, people who would call themselves sabermetricians, or even people who are well versed in the work of sabermetricians. At the same time, the sort of skillset and temperament required to do sabermetrics frequently leads one to the conclusion that predicting baseball is hard and that the sum of what we don’t know about the future often exceeds the sum of what we do know.














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Wrapping up our tour of the AL Central by discussing how good the Tigers can be, how close the Royals are to being competitive, and the sorry state of the Twins.

1) Will their defensive experiment work out?

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February 29, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview

12

Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

The two Jasons dissect the pressing questions facing the Rangers, Angels, A's, and Mariners this season.

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 89-73
Team WARP: 45.7
Runs Scored: 719
Runs Allowed: 648​
Team FRAA: 37.6






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February 22, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview

28

Derek Carty and Michael Jong

Roundtable discussion of the pressing questions facing the NL East teams as we approach the start of the season

1) After a disappointing sophomore campaign, what can we expect of Jason Heyward going forward?
MJ:
Jason Heyward had an injury-riddled sophomore season in Atlanta, but there is a lot to like about his chances at a rebound campaign in 2012. His offensive line was deflated by a .260 BABIP, but his peripherals were once again stellar. His 11.6 percent walk rate represented a regression from 2010 but cannot be considered poor, and his .162 ISO likewise dropped from the previous year but did not experience a precipitous fall.


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February 20, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview

19

R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

Roundtable discussion of the most pressing issues facing each AL East team entering Spring Training

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4







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Team all-stars by WARP string-where would the pennants stop? Plus, some of the best and worst songs of 1987.

Jorge Posada and the Third-String Yankees
I was asked on the radio last week where Jorge Posada ranked as a Hall of Fame candidate. I responded that he was the third-best catcher in Yankees history in career value, which proved to be a good, not-quite-off-the-top-of-of-my head guess (when someone asks you to rank the presidents, you can play it lose as long as you start with George Washington and not Warren Harding, but when it comes to ballplayers you have to know your Berra-Dickey do-re-mi). I became curious as to just how good the third-best team in a team’s history might be. Part of the fun of following baseball is making lists, and this seemed to be a good excuse to make one.

If we ranked each position by career WARP, how far down would we have to go before we reached a team that wouldn’t win the pennant every year? Would Jorge still get his share of rings?


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January 18, 2012 3:00 am

Heartburn Hardball: The Hawk and the Dragon

16

Jonathan Bernhardt

After starring for opposing teams in the Japan Series, Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada will try to adjust to life in Baltimore and last place, as the Orioles react to the new CBA by plugging their pitching holes with Asian imports.

On November 12th, 2011, as Major League Baseball recovers from one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory, Nippon Professional Baseball begins its own best-of-seven championship: the Japan Series.

Much like MLB, Japanese professional baseball has two leagues—the Central and the Pacific—and much like MLB, the champions of those respective leagues play each other to determine a final champion for the entire season. As NPB has only 12 teams compared to to MLB's 30, however, the playoffs are structured a bit differently; with only six teams per league, NPB does not bother with divisions or Wild Cards—the best three teams in each league make the playoffs, with the league's top seed getting a first-round bye. The second and third seeds play a best-of-three series, and the winner faces the first seed in a best-of-five “Climax Series” that's roughly analogous to MLB's League Championship Series. The winning club from each league's Climax Series is that league's champion and advances to the best-of-seven Japan Series to determine which is the best club in NPB. The Climax Series format was implemented first by the Pacific League in 2004 and then adopted by the Central League three years later. Previously, there had been no real postseason in NPB: the team with the best season record from the Central would play the team with the best season record from the Pacific in the Japan Series, and that was that.

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As the Mets embark upon an uncertain rebuilding phase, they're putting their faith in young pitchers, as they've done before.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Jonathan Bernhardt is a freelance writer born in Baltimore who lives and works in New York City. He is an occasional contributor to the Et tu, Mr. Destructo? blog.

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Did new Orioles general manager Dan Duquette leave a mess behind him in his last GM job?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As Dan Duquette prepares to take on a clean-up operation in Baltimore, revisit Jonah's take on his job performance in his previous stints as a GM, which originally ran on April 25, 2002.
 


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Does dropping the first game of the World Series to the Cardinals mean Texas is in trouble?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

In the wake of the Cardinals' Game 1 victory, revisit Rany's investigation of what it means to go down 1-0, which originally ran as a "Doctoring the Numbers" column on October 28, 2001.

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