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06-12

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1

Skewed Left: The Wisdom of Pinch-Hitting with Pitchers
by
Zachary Levine

10-09

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26

The Lineup Card: 8 Memorable Manager Decisions in the Playoffs
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-08

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27

Baseball Therapy: What My Four-Year-Old Taught Me About Bunting
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-21

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6

Baseball Therapy: Pitchouts and My Underage Gambling Problem
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-14

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17

Pebble Hunting: The Probably Pointless Pitchout
by
Sam Miller

10-17

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 64: Should Joe Girardi Have Pinch-Hit in Game Three?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-07

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7

The Stats Go Marching In: Four Questions for the Stretch Run
by
Max Marchi

05-26

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20

Baseball ProGUESTus: Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 2
by
Tom Tango

03-08

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27

Fantasy Beat: The Art of Auction
by
Jason Collette

10-14

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17

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

10-05

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19

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

09-08

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2

Prospectus Perspective: Not Dead Yet
by
Christina Kahrl

08-16

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5

Prospectus Perspective: The Last of The Czars
by
Steven Goldman

10-28

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25

World Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies Preview
by
Jay Jaffe

10-07

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46

Prospectus Today: Closing Out and Waiting Around
by
Joe Sheehan

10-01

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20

Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Brewers
by
Jay Jaffe

05-14

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0

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Life and Times of Buzzie Bavasi, Part Two
by
Jay Jaffe

10-10

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0

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview
by
Christina Kahrl

06-05

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0

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12
by
Rany Jazayerli

05-01

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0

You Could Look It Up: Why Baseball Is Obligated to Throw the Book at Delmon Young
by
Steven Goldman

11-29

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0

Smartball and Moneyball
by
Jeff Angus

04-25

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0

From The Mailbag: The Flat Earth Society, Win Expectancies, Running Wild, and Baseball Rhymin'
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-16

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0

Prospectus Today: Status Qua
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Prospectus Today: The Politics of Glory
by
Joe Sheehan

05-23

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6-4-3: Looking for Advantages on the Ground
by
Gary Huckabay and Nate Silver

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August 16, 2010 12:30 pm

Prospectus Perspective: The Last of The Czars

5

Steven Goldman

Except for iron-fisted Buck Showalter, the newly hired managers are really no different than the men they replaced.

Just when you were convinced that managing was a thoroughly debased profession, along comes Buck Showalter. Five clubs have changed managers in the course of this season (Arizona, Baltimore, Florida, Kansas City, and Seattle), which wouldn’t have been a shocking number from the 1960s through the 1980s, but is high for the current era. Back in the 1920s, Giants manager John McGraw said, “With my team I am an absolute czar. My men know it. I order plays and they obey. If they don't, I fine them.” Did Don Wakamatsu look like the czar of anything to you? For that matter, does Jerry Manuel?

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October 28, 2009 1:11 am

World Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies Preview

25

Jay Jaffe

Will the Phillies establish a mini-dynasty, or will the Yankees add to their crowded trophy case with another title?

A year ago, the Phillies broke a 28-year-old title drought by winning the World Series, defeating the upstart Rays in five games. After winning 93 games in the regular season and tidily dispatching both the Rockies and the Dodgers in the first two rounds, they're back to defend their crown with a cast that's largely the same, save for summer acquisition Cliff Lee. They're the first NL team to repeat as pennant winners since the 1995-1996 Braves, and if they win the World Series, they'll be they first senior circuit club to do so since the 1975-1976 Reds.

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October 7, 2008 1:13 pm

Prospectus Today: Closing Out and Waiting Around

46

Joe Sheehan

The LDS round ends early again, leaving us with a few days without baseball to ponder what just happened to give us baseball's final four.

The four teams that advanced to the League Championship Series are probably the top two teams in the AL, and two of the top three playoff teams in the NL. We can debate the Dodgers; relative standing in the NL as a whole, complicated by the fact that their playoff lineup is nothing like anything they used during the season, but I don't think anyone would argue that they're a better team than the Brewers at the moment.

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Will the lefty-mashing Brewers match up well with Philly, or will Phillies firepower and a strong pen make all the difference?

Less than three weeks ago, the Brewers came to Philadelphia holding a four-game lead in the wild-card race and carrying the league's second-best record despite a slump that had seen them lose seven of 10 to open September. By the end of the four-game set, the two teams were tied for the wild card. It was the start of a finishing kick in which the Phillies went 13-3, breezing past the Mets to claim their second division title in a row.

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The glory of the Dodgers in the '60s, followed by an inglorious Padres period and putting the Angels on the map.

Part One, for those who missed it last week.

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Two different approaches at the plate, and two stacked rotations. Christina has the most in-depth preview of the Athletics-Tigers series you'll find anywhere.

Okay, so it's Cinderella with some serious mojo versus the Moneyball-Meets-John Jaha Memorial Edition A's, and everyone's fascinated because it's another delightfully Yankee- and Red Sox-free American League Championship Series involving real ballclubs and stories more interesting than who gets Connecticut.

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June 5, 2006 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part 12

0

Rany Jazayerli

Rany closes out his epic series, identifying the new inefficiency in the market before tomorrow's Rule 4 draft.

Well, there's no reason to think that change suddenly ground to a halt in 1999, and the data from a decade ago may hold little bearing on the decisions that will be made next Tuesday.

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Steven chimes in on the Delmon Young fiasco, looking to history for a bit of guidance.

That Labor Day at Toledo, Derr was calling the plays at first base. The Mudhens had been leading the pennant race, but were in the midst of a losing streak that had dropped them out of first place; tempers were running short. When Derr called a Mudhen out on a close play at first base, Stengel came running out to argue. Whatever he said--use your imagination--it got him thumbed from the game. That was standard operating procedure. What happened next was new. Stengel didn't leave the field. He turned towards the stands and began conducting them like a band leader, exhorting them. Writing about it a few days later, John Kieran of the New York Times said,

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November 29, 2005 12:00 am

Smartball and Moneyball

0

Jeff Angus

Jeff Angus takes a look at how the White Sox' closer usage pattern stacks up against more dominant patterns, and has some illuminating insight into the 2005 Champions' brand of baseball.

The 2005 World Championship Chicago White Sox got the rap of being a "hustle-ball" or "anti-Moneyball" team.

False. One of the pillars of their success was the ability to deliver on an innovation that's best known as the failed child of Bill James and Theo Epstein: The "Closer by Committee." How Chisox General Manager Ken Williams and Manager Ozzie Guillen delivered value from the discredited concept is enlightening, and, because of the team's championship, it's something that's likely (though not certain) to be imitated. As with most competitive tools, it wasn't invented from scratch, but diffused--in this case, from the other side of Chicago.

CLOSER BY SAVE MEETS CLOSER BY COMMITTEE

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Jay Jaffe, Keith Woolner, James Click and Jonah Keri reach into the mailbag and address win expectancies, the stathead revolution, the running game, gambling, and...scrabble? Plus, a reader known only as "J.S." offers Steven Goldman (if that is his real name) some more conspiracy fuel for the fire.

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April 16, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Status Qua

0

Joe Sheehan

While I don't think the Anderson contract was a good one, I can at least see the rationale behind it, the organizational thought process. The Expos' commitment to Hernandez, an innings sponge coming off of his best season, makes much less sense to me. To justify it, you have to think that 2003 represented an Andersonesque leap in performance, and be comfortable with the idea that Hernandez's huge workload in his 20s isn't going to affect either his pitching or his availability over the next few years. I don't know that I can agree with either premise. Despite being the Pitcher Abuse Points poster boy throughout this career, Hernandez has remained healthy enough to make virtually all his starts since reaching the majors for good in 1997. He's established himself as a workhorse who, 2003 aside, provides league-average performance over 210 or more innings. That has value, but when you look at what pitchers of Hernandez's ilk got over the winter, it's hard to understand $7 million a season. Jeff Suppan, a pretty good comp for Hernandez, signed for two years and $6 million over the winter. Jason Johnson is a bit inferior to Hernandez, and got $7 million over two years. Steve Trachsel got his 2005 option picked up at $5 million and an option year--not guaranteed--tacked on at $7 million. In light of these signings, Hernandez was retained at a significant premium above his market value--assuming other teams don't think Livan's 2003 represented a new performance plateau.

Miss Qua, I'm afraid, would not be proud of today's column.

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October 14, 2003 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: The Politics of Glory

0

Joe Sheehan

If you were a Yankee fan looking for a sign that Game Four was going to go differently than Game One did, Alfonso Soriano leading it off with a walk wasn't a bad one. Unfortunately, Soriano's was just about the last good plate appearance the Yankees had all game. As in Game One--and for that matter, as in most games this postseason--the Yankees treated their outs like the mashed potatoes at a Vegas buffet: eat all you want, someone will refill the tray. There was no refill, though; 27 outs later, the Red Sox had tied the ALCS at two games apiece. This isn't the same team that scored 877 runs during the season. The Yankees are drawing about one fewer walk per game, which doesn't mean much in a four-game sample. The quality of their at-bats has fallen through the floor, however. With the exception of Bernie Williams, Yankee hitters have been jumping at the ball the whole series. They're exhibiting no patience, especially with runners on base, throwing away at-bat after at-bat after at-bat. Look at the way they're swinging: they're out in front of everything and trying to hit every ball out of the park. It's exactly the opposite of how they got here in the first place. Right now, the Red Sox are playing better baseball than the Yankees are. They're hitting for power and their pitchers are exploiting the Yankees' sudden need to be the Cubs. The Sox won last night's game not with the sacred little things, but with the big things: home runs, good starting pitching, dominant relief.

This isn't the same team that scored 877 runs during the season. The Yankees are drawing about one fewer walk per game, which doesn't mean much in a four-game sample. The quality of their at-bats has fallen through the floor, however. With the exception of Bernie Williams, Yankee hitters have been jumping at the ball the whole series. They're exhibiting no patience, especially with runners on base, throwing away at-bat after at-bat after at-bat. Look at the way they're swinging: they're out in front of everything and trying to hit every ball out of the park. It's exactly the opposite of how they got here in the first place.

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