CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Articles Tagged Strategy 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives
<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 15, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Strategy and Process: A Pseudo Mailbag

1

Jeff Quinton

Jeff's inbox is open for your questions.

First off, I would like to say that the best part about writing at Baseball Prospectus is the community and audience that I get to write for. The enthusiasm and intelligence of the readership (at least what I can tell from the commenters) is outstanding. Smart and insightful comments are often the inspiration for my articles and often allow me to better understand the concepts and ideas I am/was writing about. Now they are not all pearls of wisdom, but there ain’t no sweet without the sour.

Anyhow, the three comments from my article two weeks ago, In-Season Advocacy Effect and Managing Multiple Leagues, all brought up interesting points and I figured responding to these questions/points would make for a helpful article (I also apologize for the delay). I figured that if one person is thinking something or asking something, then there are probably others with the same thoughts and questions. At the very least, responding to these comments should help us improve our understanding of these concepts and topics.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

January 5, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Zagging: Catchers and an Opportunitistic Strategy

6

Jeff Quinton

Part one of a weekly strategy-based subseries that will run alongside the fantasy team's positional content.

Catchers are kind of cool because they get to wear cool gear. In Little League, catchers get to have that cool big bag for all their cool gear. In the majors, some catchers have their name on their gear and sometimes, if they have a nickname, their nickname goes on the gear as opposed to their less-cool birth name (which is kind of a weird term to begin with). Unfortunately, for fantasy purposes, this is where the coolness ends (except for Mike Piazza and that time when Jason Kendall stole those bases). As a result of this lack of fantasy prolificness, it is pretty easy to forecast catchers from a game theory perspective. What the heck does that even mean? It means that because there is no corner-infield or middle-infield equivalent for catchers and because no one sets out to put a catcher in one’s utility slot, we have a pretty good idea of the number of catchers that will be drafted, which catchers will be first off the board, and which catchers will be around if we choose to wait on the position. In other words, determining a strategic approach for how to roster catchers is easier than, say, anything else one needs to determine during a draft or auction. Relatedly, there are two key components to drafts and auctions that we should always remember:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

If it doesn't make sense to call for pitchouts, why do major-league managers keep doing it?

Last week, my colleague Sam Miller ran a few numbers on the pointless, yet poignant play that is the pitchout (a billion points to whomever catches that reference) and concluded that pitchouts are actually a net loser: they cost the defense/pitching team more in runs than they gain. Sure, individual pitchouts sometimes nab a would-be base stealer (and that's a good thing), but overall, managers guessed wrong so often that the expected payoff wasn't high enough to justify the strategy. Rule number one of strategic thinking is that just because you got lucky on a stupid bet, it doesn't negate the fact that it was a stupid bet.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Ben and Sam discuss Joe Girardi's decision(s) not to pinch-hit for any of his left-handed hitters late in Game Three of the ALCS.

Ben and Sam discuss Joe Girardi's decision(s) not to pinch-hit for any of his left-handed hitters late in Game Three of the ALCS.

Episode 64: "Should Joe Girardi Have Pinch-Hit in Game Three?"

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 7, 2012 5:00 am

The Stats Go Marching In: Four Questions for the Stretch Run

7

Max Marchi

Some strategic questions have different answers in September than they do during the rest of the regular season.

During the first four or five months of the season, I don’t care which teams are playing, as long as there is at least one day game I can watch from my location six time zones ahead of the East Coast. But when September arrives, I often find myself looking at the schedule in disgust when I learn that the only game played at 1 PM features two teams already out of contention.

September also brings a different kind of baseball, as rosters expand and teams pull out all the stops to make the playoffs. Given the altered nature of the game in the final month of the regular season, the men in charge of pushing the buttons should know the answers to a few questions that either do not arise or are not really relevant earlier in the season. Let’s have a look at a few of them.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

You might not know it from watching the World Series, but it often makes sense for a manager to pinch hit for his starter before the late innings.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Mitchel Lichtman, or MGL, has been doing sabermetric research and writing for over 20 years. He is one of the authors of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, and co-hosts The Book blog, www.insidethebook.com. He consulted for the St. Louis Cardinals from 2004 to 2006, as well as other major-league teams. He holds a B.A. from Cornell University and a J.D. from the University of Nevada Boyd School of Law. Most of the time these days you can find him on the golf course.


Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 21, 2010 10:08 am

Checking the Numbers: Churn and Burn

17

Eric Seidman

Can a player's performance one week have any predictive power on how he will perform during the next week?

Full disclosure: I have never really played fantasy baseball, at least in a serious or semi-serious capacity, prior to this season. My lack of participation had nothing to do with ulterior motives like taking a stance against W-L and batting average. I just never got into it. Well, things have changed and, in deciding to try my hand at the massively popular game, I am finding that certain tendencies have awoken that I believed were trained out of my baseball vernacular long ago. For instance, it is becoming increasingly tempting to drop a player after a poor week in exchange for a player in the midst of a hot streak. I mean, I know Jeff Francoeur isn’t going to hit .438/.583/.839, but my goodness, if I had that production or even some semblance of it instead of the .250/.345/.333 from Andrew McCutchen, I might have won both of my matchups so far.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 8, 2010 11:46 am

Baseball Therapy: Why Not Two Pitchers?

37

Russell A. Carleton

Alternating left-handed and right-handed relievers by temporarily shifting them to the outfield is an old strategy to reconsider.

It was the second game of a doubleheader last July 12, and the Cardinals were visiting Wrigley Field. In the top of the ninth inning, the Cards held a 4-2 lead, and the wheels were moving in the head of Cubs manager Lou Piniella. Piniella had brought lefty Sean Marshall into the game with runners on first and second and no one out to face the announced left-handed hitting Cardinals pinch hitter Chris Duncan (Tony La Russa countered by using Nick Stavinoha to pinch-hit). Marshall walked Stavinoha, and Piniella popped out of the dugout and called to his bullpen. In came the right-handed Aaron Heilman to face Brendan Ryan, and Marshall was dismissed from the mound to left field. It was Cubs left fielder Alfonso Soriano who was headed for the showers, rather than Marshall. Piniella apparently wanted to keep Marshall in the game to face Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus, the next two hitters due up after Ryan. Piniella's strategy worked. Heilman struck Ryan out. Marshall then returned to the mound. He ended up striking out Jaret Hoffpauir (pinch hitting for Schumaker) and getting Rasmus to fly to left field, where Marshall's replacement, Reed Johnson, made a fine catch.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Bryan concludes his analysis of the draft tendencies of scouting directors.

Today, I close out my attempt to find tendencies in the drafting philosophies of Major League scouting directors. I surmised that any person of power in sports falls back on his own patterns of informed behavior when making important choices. This is basically a case study in making a mock draft without inside knowledge--I'm wondering what the past can tell us about the future.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 29, 2007 12:00 am

Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors, AL East

0

Bryan Smith

Bryan continues his analysis of the draft tendencies of scouting directors.

Two weeks ago, I started an attempt to identify the drafting tendencies of MLB scouting directors. I surmised that any person of power in sport falls back on his own patterns of informed behavior when making important choices. This is basically a case study in making a mock draft without inside knowledge--I'm wondering what the past can tell us about the future.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 27, 2007 12:00 am

Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors, NL Central

0

Bryan Smith

Bryan continues his analysis of the draft tendencies of scouting directors.

This series is my attempt to identify the drafting tendencies of Major League scouting directors. In looking at the scouting directors, I'm hoping that the past might tell us something about the future. I'm analyzing them in multiple categories: Best Player Produced, Best Prospect in Minors, Notable Steals (any notable player that was drafted after round five), Five-Round Strategy (total picks in first round divided by college and high school selections), and Strategy in a Nutshell (subjective look at the scouting director's choices). Finally, I use this information to look into the 2007 Draft Crystal Ball and determine if we can forecast choices merely based upon previous tendencies. Today, we move to the NL Central. You can find the AL West here, the NL West here, and the AL Central here.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 22, 2007 12:00 am

Wait 'Til Next Year: The Scouting Directors, AL Central

0

Bryan Smith

Bryan continues his analysis of the draft tendencies of scouting directors.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries