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Articles Tagged Stolen Base 

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05-30

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1

BP Unfiltered: Erick Aybar is a Fox
by
R.J. Anderson

03-01

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12

Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 50 Fantasy Outfielders, Part Two: 26-50
by
Mike Gianella, Josh Shepardson and Paul Singman

02-18

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15

Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 15 Fantasy Second Basemen
by
Josh Shepardson

04-13

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10

Fantasy Beat: Can Dee Gordon Steal 80 Bases?
by
Jason Collette

12-21

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36

Spinning Yarn: Hit-and-Run Success is No Accident
by
Mike Fast

09-26

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: Losing Speed
by
Derek Carty

08-15

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3

Resident Fantasy Genius: Managing a Need for Speed
by
Derek Carty

08-08

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5

Fantasy Beat: Preparation Only Gets You So Far
by
Jason Collette

08-04

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13

Spitballing: Why When You Go Matters
by
Jeremy Greenhouse

08-03

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3

Value Picks: Outfield for 8/3/11
by
Rob McQuown

07-29

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0

Fantasy Beat: Royalty Running Wild
by
Jason Collette

07-28

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0

Fantasy Beat: Stolen Base Thieves and Wannabes
by
Michael Jong

06-30

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4

Fantasy Beat: League-Wide Stolen Base Woes
by
Jason Collette

06-27

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3

Fantasy Beat: Who Am I?
by
Jason Collette

05-06

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4

Fantasy Beat: Stolen Bases and You in 2011
by
Jason Collette

05-05

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15

Overthinking It: Year of the Stolen Base?
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-03

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0

Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars FAAB Update, 5/2
by
Jason Collette

04-08

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3

Fantasy Beat: April Stolen Base Trends
by
Jason Collette

03-18

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22

Fantasy Beat: Bobby Abreu vs. Rajai Davis
by
Jason Collette

03-11

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8

Fantasy Beat: Billy Butler, Speed Demon
by
Jason Collette

02-18

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12

Expanded Horizons: Journey to the Center of the Worth
by
Tommy Bennett

02-09

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5

Fantasy Beat: Rickie Weeks' 2010 Breakout
by
Craig Brown

12-22

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57

Future Shock: New York Mets Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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17

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

10-05

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19

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Twins vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

06-18

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2

Prospectus Q&A: Davey Lopes
by
David Laurila

05-13

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24

Checking the Numbers: Caught Quantifying
by
Eric Seidman

03-29

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0

Fantasy Beat: Steal This Post
by
Craig Brown

03-10

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5

Prospectus Hit and Run: Ozzie's Baserunning Whizzes
by
Jay Jaffe

02-23

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36

Fantasy Focus: Second Base Rankings
by
Marc Normandin

01-18

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38

Baseball Therapy: Profiling a Manager, Part 1
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-14

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3

The Baserunning Report
by
Christina Kahrl

09-16

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8

Forecasting Stolen Base Success Rates
by
Tim Kniker

09-04

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5

You Could Look It Up: No Juice at Bailout Field
by
Steven Goldman

07-28

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: Return of the Rickeys
by
Jay Jaffe

07-24

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Today, Who is the Rickey-est?
by
Jay Jaffe

06-21

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37

Prospectus Idol Entry: When It Doesn't Pay To Steal
by
Brian Cartwright

12-15

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21

Prospectus Hit and Run: Oh Rickey, You're So Fine
by
Jay Jaffe

07-19

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0

Fantasy Focus: Speed Never Slumps
by
Jeff Erickson

04-25

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0

Fantasy Focus: April Stolen Base Report
by
Jeff Erickson

03-20

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Clearing the Decks
by
Dan Fox

11-01

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: My First Full Season
by
Dan Fox

10-18

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: The Baserunning Edition
by
Dan Fox

08-19

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Tim Raines
by
David Laurila

07-19

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Dropping One Down, Part Two
by
Dan Fox

06-18

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0

Watching the Detectives
by
Mike Carminati

06-01

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0

Fantasy Focus: Exceptional Thievery
by
Jeff Erickson

04-29

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Dan Levitt
by
David Laurila

03-29

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: The Price of Contentment
by
Dan Fox

03-22

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Double Steals And More
by
Dan Fox

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The Angels shortstop steals second when nobody is looking.

Erick Aybar's clever baserunning has earned e-ink before, but what he did in last night's game against the Mariners marks a new personal best.

Read the full article...

The second half of our outfield rankings takes you from Carl Crawford through Chris Davis.

The Baseball Prospectus fantasy team has been rolling out its positional rankings over the past couple of weeks, and will conclude the process next week. Each team member assigned to cover a position will create an initial top 15 (more for outfielders and starting pitchers) on his own. He will then send that list to the rest of the team for discussion, at which point we will debate the rankings, both in terms of each player’s specific placement and the merits on which he was included in the top 15. This back-and-forth debate will yield the final list, which will be presented by the original author with notes on the pertinent players. We encourage you to bring your opinions into the fray using the comment section below.

Today, we continue the rankings with the second half of our outfielders list, featuring the players ranked 26-50. We released our top 25 outfielders on Wednesday, and you can view that article here.

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February 18, 2013 5:00 am

Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Top 15 Fantasy Second Basemen

15

Josh Shepardson

The keystone features a terrific trio, but questions cloud the dozen players that follow.

In the coming weeks, the fantasy team here at Baseball Prospectus will be rolling out our positional rankings. Each team member assigned to cover a position will create an initial top 15 (more for outfielders and starting pitchers) on his own. He will then send that list to the rest of the team for discussion, at which point we will debate the rankings, both in terms of each player’s specific placement and the merits on which he was included in the top 15. This back-and-forth debate will yield the final list, which will be presented by the original author with notes on the pertinent players. We encourage you to bring your opinions into the fray using the comment section below.

Today, we continue the rankings with a look at our top 15 second basemen.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

April 13, 2012 12:42 pm

Fantasy Beat: Can Dee Gordon Steal 80 Bases?

10

Jason Collette

A look at whether Dee Gordon is capable of stealing 80 bases, a feat not achieved since the 80s

In Monday’s piece about bold predictions, reader dodgerken22 called his shot by saying that Dee Gordon would steal 92 bases in 2012. My initial response was that I am not sure an 80-steal season is possible in the major leagues any longer with the increased use of slide steps, improved pickoff moves, more awareness about time to the plate, and managerial tendencies, but I figured it was worth going back and looking at where those kinds of seasons came from in the past.

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The hit-and-run is much maligned as a small-ball tactic, but it's a surprisingly successful strategy.

In this game you never know enough.”—Dale Mitchell

Read the full article...

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 26, 2011 5:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: Losing Speed

2

Derek Carty

When a batter has a dropoff in stolen-base rate, what's the likelihood he has a return to his normal rates?

Earlier this season, I had a discussion with one of my leaguemates and friends in the CardRunners Fantasy Baseball Experts League, Chris Hill (a poker player who partners with Hollywood director Nick Cassavetes for the league), after he read my article about how long it takes for hitting stats to stabilize. In that article, I proposed that a hitter’s stolen-base success rate (SB%) is extremely volatile, but Chris said that I might want to reexamine that line of thinking. He said that he hadn’t run a study on it, but he had always attributed a caught-stealing spike to “either an injury indicator or a precursor to significant decline of all skills [and] almost never random,” rattling off a series of such examples. I thought that this was interesting and at least worth a look, so I asked him to propose a way to study his theory, and I would run the study.

Based on his proposal, I’ll be examining all hitters who played in three consecutive seasons dating back to 1993 (a “baseline, a decline year, and a rebound year”) and had at least 15 stolen-base attempts in the first season. From here, I’ll use this set of batters to answer the four questions he proposed:

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August 15, 2011 11:28 pm

Resident Fantasy Genius: Managing a Need for Speed

3

Derek Carty

There are some managers more afraid of turning runners loose on the basepaths, but just how much do skippers affect the running game?

Prior to the 2011 season, much ado was made in the fantasy community over the Brewers declining to bring back manager Ken Macha, instead replacing him with Ron Roenicke. While Roenicke was far from a household name, his stated desire to allow his players to run more than they did under his predecessor piqued the interest of fantasy owners:

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August 8, 2011 10:34 am

Fantasy Beat: Preparation Only Gets You So Far

5

Jason Collette

Jason looks at Coco Crisp's surprise 2011 and muses on how luck and preparation can play into fantasy seasons.

Ed Bradley once said that he found the harder he worked, the better his luck was because he was prepared.  Ben Franklin told us that diligence is the mother of good luck. Seneca told us that luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. That is all fine and dandy, but any fantasy player that does not admit to luck being more than just a miniscule factor in a fantasy season is simply not being honest.

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Baseball's best basestealers should get proper credit for knowing when crime does and doesn't pay.

We’ve heard the argument against RBIs a million times. It begins with name-calling and ends with being called names, but in between, the rational party explains that Runs Batted In do not control for context. Batters do not get to choose when they hit with runners on base. The same logic can be applied to win probability added—a measure that assigns credit based on the shift in a team’s win expectancy over the course of play.

A walk-off grand slam in a tie game might be worth 4 RBI and raise the team’s win expectancy to 100%, but the batter does not deserve more credit for that home run than for most other home runs. In fact, a single would have been just as good. Batters can alter their situational hitting but not their hitting situations. The accepted solution* has been linear weights, which gives batters credit for their contributions devoid of any context. An average home run is worth 1.4 RBI or 0.14 WPA.

Read the full article...

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August 3, 2011 10:45 am

Value Picks: Outfield for 8/3/11

3

Rob McQuown

There's lot of outfield turnover in VP this week given all of the weekend's trade deadline moves.

It's been a chaotic week of outfielder moves across the league, and Houston's outfield takes on an entirely new look with Carlos Lee moving to first base and the other two starters moving out of town. Last week's additions both graduate from The List this week, but new faces are getting playing time all around the majors with the shuffling. The holes in San Diego and Seattle will probably see multiple players before the season ends, but none besides Trayvon Robinson have much star power, and the parks will depress the stats of the other pretenders enough that they can be safely ignored for now.
 


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July 29, 2011 10:46 am

Fantasy Beat: Royalty Running Wild

0

Jason Collette

Jason looks at the baserunning philosophy of Royals manager Ned Yost and how it has benefited fantasy players.

Do you remember this quote from Spring Training?

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July 28, 2011 12:56 am

Fantasy Beat: Stolen Base Thieves and Wannabes

0

Michael Jong

Michael looks at three hitters who could start stealing more bases and three who could start stealing fewer the rest of the way.

Success in stealing bases is very difficult to predict, and we might be better off looking at a player's stolen base opportunities and attempts to help us find potential players who could help us in terms of volume steals. Of course, the players decide on their own whether or not they want to take off or not (perhaps with the help or confidence of their managers), and some do not seem to have the best of judgment when it comes to making these decisions. Looking through the list of players with at least 50 stolen base opportunities in 2011 (data provided by Baseball-Reference), one can definitely identify some players who should seemingly be running more to help their fantasy owners and some who should be running less to help their run-scoring chances.
 


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