Mike reviews the results of two of his auctions, one for each league.
Like most of my readers, I devour every scrap of expert-league auction data I can get my hands on before the season starts. However, while useful, expert auctions are almost always start-over. While this gives a decent baseline for raw values, it isn’t very instructive as to what might happen when you start dealing with keepers, reserve lists, and other twists on the rules that cater more to carryover leagues.
Below is a brief recap of what I did in my two longstanding keeper auctions this past weekend. While nearly all of us are done drafting or auctioning, looking back at what we did right as well as what we did wrong can be very instructive.
Chris Iannetta, George Kottaras, and Steve Lombardozzi get examined in this week's VP.
My optimistic outlook for Gordon Beckham(Yahoo! 10%, ESPN 13%, CBS 46%) resulted in a 4-for-23 week at the dish with no pop or speed. He's making contact, with a contact rate of better than 90 percent in the last two weeks, but it hasn't been hard contact; he’s posted a paltry 8 percent line drive rate. Stephani Bee discussed Beckham as a change of scenery candidate in Wednesday's Lineup Card. Perhaps that is what it will take to get Beckham right, or perhaps there is no fixing Beckham, but for now, he doesn't need to be rostered in fantasy leagues.
It's too early to look at statistical leaderboards, but sometimes we have to anyway.
April 19, 2011: "Somehow, someway, Carlos Lee is second with a 53.2 UZR/150. I will literally eat broken glass if he finishes with a positive number this season. (Someone hold me to it.)" —This guy, who is now dead, from eating glass :(
We have such a weird relationship with April stats. I’m trying to think of anything else where we consider a 10-percent sample almost totally useless. On election night, when they show the vote totals, I start to take them seriously once 10 percent of precincts are in. If you could see only 10 percent of a human, you could still probably figure out whether he was tall, fat, into rockabilly, etc. But the first 10 percent of a baseball season is like the first 10 percent of the sausage race in Milwaukee: filled with narrative, almost entirely misleading, and a place where Randall Simon doesn’t belong.
News and notes from Sunday's Nationals-Cubs game at Wrigley Field.
CHICAGO | The Nationals have a pair of projected regulars rehabbing at Double-A Harrisburg in Michael Morse and Rick Ankiel. With both expected to return within the next week or so, Washington has some roster decisions lying ahead.
The Twins struggled in 2011 and there's little help from the farm coming soon
Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fade—whether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview from Baseball Prospectus, a front-office take from former MLB GM Jim Bowden, a best- and worst-case scenario ZiPS projection for 2012 from Dan Szymborski, and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.