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04-18

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8

Baseball Prospectus News: New Stat Reports and Site Upgrades
by
Rob McQuown

12-19

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16

Baseball Prospectus News: A New Direction for Stats at BP
by
Harry Pavlidis

08-06

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15

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Foundation of the Front Office
by
Gabe Kapler

06-11

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4

Painting the Black: Swinging With Starlin
by
R.J. Anderson

04-25

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: There is No Divide
by
Derek Zumsteg

08-24

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17

The Stats Go Marching In: Do Pitchers Forget How to Hit in the Minors?
by
Max Marchi

08-21

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6

Baseball ProGUESTus: Baseball and Base 3
by
Zachary Levine

08-17

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Setting the Stage for 2005: Steroids
by
Nate Silver

07-17

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45

Overthinking It: PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-30

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22

Pebble Hunting: Moneyball: The Prequel
by
Sam Miller

01-27

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15

The BP Wayback Machine: Money Poorly Spent, Now and Then
by
John Perrotto

09-22

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2

Resident Fantasy Genius: What Sabermetrics Means to Me
by
Derek Carty

09-19

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17

BP Feature: Reviewing "Behind the Seams: The Stat Story"
by
Derek Carty

05-05

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21

Baseball ProGUESTus: A Statistician Rereads Bill James
by
Andrew Gelman

11-01

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2

Prospectus Q&A: Sam Fuld
by
David Laurila

08-17

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48

Changing Speeds: Behind the Screen at Fox
by
Ken Funck

04-17

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2

Wait 'Til Next Year: The SEC Ascendant
by
Bryan Smith

02-22

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0

Transaction Analysis: Odds and Ends
by
Christina Kahrl

02-17

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0

Transaction Analysis: Camp-Opening Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

02-04

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0

Transaction Analysis: Philly Non-Fixes and the Seattle Predicate
by
Christina Kahrl

01-25

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0

Transaction Analysis: Scanning Shields, and Nailing Down Rocks
by
Christina Kahrl

01-21

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0

Transaction Analysis: Dodging the Arbitrator
by
Christina Kahrl

01-13

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0

Transaction Analysis: Moves from the Week that Was
by
Christina Kahrl

01-08

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0

Transaction Analysis: Breaking in the New Year
by
Christina Kahrl

12-31

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0

Transaction Analysis: December Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

12-09

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0

Transaction Analysis: Big Moves in the NL
by
Christina Kahrl

11-13

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0

Transaction Analysis: NL Pickups and Discards
by
Christina Kahrl

11-07

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0

Transaction Analysis: AL Pick-me-ups and Discards
by
Christina Kahrl

10-24

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0

The Ledger Domain: The Impact of the Fantasy Stats Ruling
by
Maury Brown

08-26

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0

Transaction Analysis: All-Around Catch-Up Edition
by
Christina Kahrl

08-19

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0

Transaction Analysis: National League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

08-08

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0

Transaction Analysis: AL Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

08-01

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0

Transaction Analysis: Deadline Day
by
Christina Kahrl

07-30

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0

Transaction Analysis: Weekend Wheeling and Dealing
by
Christina Kahrl

07-28

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0

Transaction Analysis: Swaps and Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

07-26

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0

Transaction Analysis: American League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

07-16

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0

Transaction Analysis: National League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

06-12

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0

Transaction Analysis: National League Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

06-06

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0

Transaction of the Day: American League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

05-31

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0

Transaction of the Day: Senior Circuit Switches
by
Christina Kahrl

05-29

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0

Transaction Analysis: AL-brand Catsup
by
Christina Kahrl

05-24

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0

Transaction Analysis: NL-Brand Ketchup
by
Christina Kahrl

05-15

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0

Transaction Analysis: May 10-14, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

05-10

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0

Transaction Analysis: May 6-9, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

05-07

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 29-May 6, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

04-30

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 21-28, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

04-22

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 19-21, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

04-19

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0

Transaction Analysis: April 15-18
by
Christina Kahrl

04-15

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Transaction Analysis: Opening Day to April 14, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

04-12

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Transaction of the Day: Roster Reviews of the Easts
by
Christina Kahrl

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PECOTA appears at MLB.com, and BP publishes new stat reports and updates to PITCHf/x products and player cards.

Often, the content on the Baseball Prospectus website is driven by data collected during the research leading to an article. And readers can now benefit from some recent research on a daily basis, as six new reports have been added to the sortable statistics page, all of which will be updated daily throughout the season.

Player Pace Reports

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A new philosophy, and some new faces, for the stats team at Baseball Prospectus.

Two things about Baseball Prospectus that seem to remain true:

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What baseball's highest-paid personnel can learn from its lowest.

Most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers, and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Gabe Kapler spent parts of 12 years in the major leagues from 1998-2010, playing for the Tigers (1998-99), Rangers (2000-02), Rockies (2002-03), Red Sox (2003-06 – with a brief interlude in Japan), Brewers (2008) and Rays (2009-10). He also spent a year managing the Red Sox’ Single-A affiliate in Greenville. Follow him on Twitter @gabekapler, and listen to his recent discussion of advanced stats on Effectively Wild with Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller here.

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Starlin Castro doesn't seem to fit the Cubs' new patient philosophy. But is that too simple an explanation?

Last week, Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer appeared on Buster Olney's podcast. The pair discussed a variety of Cubs-related topics, spending a chunk of time on the organization's new emphasis on plate discipline. Historically the Cubs have operated without great concern for discipline or walks, Hoyer explained, and as a result some of the inherited players are struggling to adjust to the new definition of a quality at-bat, which puts their jobs at risk. Olney smartly followed up with a question about Starlin Castro—an inherited player with a substandard walk rate—to which Hoyer replied with a vote of confidence by saying, "He does need to improve his plate discipline over time. I think he will." Hoyer added, "He'll figure out the on-base thing."

Whether Castro, or any player, can figure out the on-base thing is an endless debate without an apparent answer. In Castro's case there's cause for skepticism. This is his fourth season in the majors, after all, and he's still in search of his first season in which he walks in more than 6 percent of his plate appearances. In fact, his career-high walk rate came in his rookie season, as a 20-year-old. Thus far this year Castro is walking and striking out at what would be career-worst rates, although that isn't too surprising considering many of his rate stats are in the same boat. So there's absolutely reason to think Castro is not figuring out the on-base thing anytime soon.

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Real-world examples show us that we use scouting and performance analysis in tandem all the time.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Derek drew a parallel between job interviews and baseball teams' talent evaluations in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published as a "Breaking Balls" column on January 20, 2005.
 


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Do pitchers get worse at the plate the more time they spend in the minor leagues?

One of the most-used arguments in favor of extending the DH rule to the National League is that the sight of a pitcher flailing about with a bat in his hands every two or three innings isn’t anyone’s idea of competition at the highest levels. This argument can be countered in several ways.

One could be the following: pitchers aren’t much worse at hitting than some oversized sluggers are at circling the bases (notice how I avoided using the word “running”). So why not make baseball a bit more like football? You could have a defensive unit and an offensive one, plus the special teams (the runners). That way, we would always see the best performers in each aspect of the game.

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We think about almost everything but baseball in base 10, but the national pastime stubbornly insists on a base 3 system. It doesn't have to be this way.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Zachary Levine, who somehow tricked an accredited university into giving him a mathematics degree, is in his third season covering the Astros for the Houston Chronicle. This is his second endeavor for Baseball Prospectus, the first being a conversation with Kevin and the Professor about shooting guns in Texas on Episode 49 of the Up and In podcast.

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Can statistics help us see the effects of steroid use?

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Can we detect the use of steroids statistically? Nate attempted one approach in the piece reprinted below, which was originally published on March 30, 2005.
 


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July 17, 2012 9:00 am

Overthinking It: PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses

45

Ben Lindbergh

Forty notable projection successes and failures from the first half, in haiku form.

Sometimes you’re not quite sure what your next column is going to be about, and then you get a pair of tweets like this:

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March 30, 2012 3:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Moneyball: The Prequel

22

Sam Miller

Decades before Billy Beane and Ricardo Rincon, there was Steve Boros and "computer baseball."

I spend a lot of time going through archives, and any time spent in archives inevitably leads to more time in archives, because an awful lot of things found in archives seem ironic or significant in retrospect. Like this:

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Prince Fielder's new deal has albatross potential, but the Tigers hope it doesn't turn out like one of John's picks for the worst contracts of the free-agent era.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

As your mind reels at the size of Prince Fielder's payday, take a look at this list of 10 free-agent deals that didn't work out well for the teams that handed them out, which originally ran on February 20, 2007.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 22, 2011 9:00 am

Resident Fantasy Genius: What Sabermetrics Means to Me

2

Derek Carty

With the Moneyball movie slated for a Friday release, our fantasy genius takes time to reflect on what sabermetrics actually means.

On Sunday, I posted my review of “Behind the Seams: The Stat Story”—an MLB Network special on statistics and their place in the game. Despite being published on a Sunday, the article received a lot of attention, and I received a number of e-mails and phone calls from people with varying opinions on the piece, several of which wound up as discussions on sabermetrics in general. Given this and what’s sure to be widespread misunderstanding after Moneyball is wide-released tomorrow, I wanted to take today to talk about what sabermetrics means to me.

In my review of MLB’s documentary, I mentioned how there is an important distinction between sabermetrics and statistics that I wanted to expand upon today. For me, sabermetrics can be broken down into two components: statistical analysis and scouting.

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