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Articles Tagged Starting Rotation 

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01-13

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15

Baseball Therapy: Building a Better Starting Rotation
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-21

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3

Overthinking It: Washington's Gas Policy
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

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0

What You Need to Know: Wednesday, April 11
by
Daniel Rathman

03-19

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8

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Rotation Rumble
by
Jay Jaffe

02-22

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28

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Derek Carty and Michael Jong

02-20

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19

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

11-01

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9

Prospectus Perspective: Moving Forward in Miami
by
Bradley Ankrom

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-16

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16

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Kansas City Royals
by
Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

09-14

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17

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Washington Nationals
by
Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

07-21

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1

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West
by
Joey Matschulat

07-05

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4

Painting the Black: Six-Man Mania
by
R.J. Anderson

03-23

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12

On the Beat: The Sunny Side of Spring
by
John Perrotto

03-15

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7

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, AL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-04

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4

Fantasy Beat: Value Picks in the Rotation
by
Bill Baer

01-17

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10

Transaction Analysis: Royal Re-Gearing
by
Christina Kahrl

12-31

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0

On the Beat: A Bird of a New Feather
by
John Perrotto

12-20

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26

Transaction Analysis: The Greinke Trade
by
Christina Kahrl

12-15

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35

Checking the Numbers: Ranking R2C2
by
Eric Seidman

11-24

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32

GM for a Day: New York Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

10-19

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17

GM for a Day: Milwaukee Brewers
by
John Perrotto

08-27

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6

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
by
Bill Baer

08-17

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2

Ahead in the Count: Only Two Games Worse
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

08-12

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4

Transaction Action: NL Central Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

07-30

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4

Fantasy Beat: Rotation Promotions
by
Bill Baer

07-26

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34

Transaction Action: Send Me Some Angels
by
Christina Kahrl and Kevin Goldstein

07-21

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38

Transaction Action: ALtruisms
by
Christina Kahrl

07-21

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4

On the Beat: Staying Positive in a Negative Situation
by
John Perrotto

07-12

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6

Transaction Action: Shuffling Seniors
by
Christina Kahrl

07-02

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7

Transaction Action: Dealing and Decapitating
by
Christina Kahrl

06-02

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11

On the Beat: Wednesday Update
by
John Perrotto

06-01

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3

Transaction Action: NL Central Update
by
Christina Kahrl

05-19

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8

On the Beat: Wednesday Update
by
John Perrotto

05-06

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Dr. John Bagonzi
by
David Laurila

05-02

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6

Transaction Action: NL Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

04-09

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2

Transaction Action: NL East and West
by
Christina Kahrl

04-02

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0

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
by
Bill Baer

03-26

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8

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
by
Bill Baer

03-21

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13

Fantasy Focus: Depth Chart/PFM Update, Part 2
by
Clay Davenport

03-01

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10

Camp Battles: NL West
by
Christina Kahrl

02-04

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30

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3
by
Matt Swartz

12-06

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25

Prospectus Today: NL Shopping Lists
by
Joe Sheehan

12-06

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9

On the Beat: Pre-Winter Meetings Shopping Lists
by
John Perrotto

10-07

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11

Playoff Prospectus: Phillies versus Rockies LDS
by
Eric Seidman

09-09

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11

Checking the Numbers: A Giant Run-Scoring Problem
by
Eric Seidman

09-06

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2

Transaction Action: Assorted Central Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

08-30

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1

On the Beat: Weekend Roundup
by
John Perrotto

08-14

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3

Checking the Numbers: Anatomy of a Good Problem
by
Eric Seidman

08-06

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5

Transaction Action: Assorted National League Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

07-15

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20

Second-Half Prescriptions
by
Baseball Prospectus

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January 13, 2014 6:00 am

Baseball Therapy: Building a Better Starting Rotation

15

Russell A. Carleton

Is the five-man rotation the best teams can do?

In 2013, the average starting pitcher lasted a bit under six innings (5.89, to be exact), and starters as a whole had an ERA of 4.01 (and an earned-or-not run average of 4.17). Collectively, the guys who began the game posted an xFIP of 3.91. They did so by using what has become a standard rotation setup. Five starters take their turns in sequence and throw roughly 100 pitches in an attempt to make it through six or seven innings (the 5-6-7 model.)

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April 21, 2012 9:23 am

Overthinking It: Washington's Gas Policy

3

Ben Lindbergh

The Nationals rotation throws harder than any staff in baseball has over the past few seasons, and that just might win them the NL East.

The Washington Nationals haven’t hit very well this season: their .252 TAv ranks ninth in the National League. They haven’t run very well, either: they rank third from last in the big leagues in Baserunning Runs (-2.2). Nonetheless, the Nats have an 11-4 record, good for first place in the National League East and the third-best record in baseball, behind only the 11-2 Rangers and the 11-3 Dodgers. In a tight division like the NL East, a quick start can improve a team’s playoff odds significantly. The Nats’ chances of making the playoffs have risen from 7.9 percent before their first game to 19.2 percent today.

How have the Nats succeeded, if not by outslugging their opponents or regularly taking the extra base? The source of the team’s success has been defense and pitching—starting pitching, in particular. Before Edwin Jackson allowed five runs in five innings against the Astros on Thursday night, no Nats starter had allowed more than four runs in an outing. Through the team’s first 13 games, the starting rotation produced nine quality starts with a 1.65 ERA and a 2.20 RA, by far the best marks in baseball.

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The Royals' rotation is off to a stellar start, and tonight's match-ups will feature many aces.

The Tuesday Takeaway
Pop quiz: Name the five current members of the Royals starting rotation.

Those five pitchers have combined to throw 29 innings in the team’s first turn through the rotation and have allowed just five runs on 18 hits, 13 walks, 22 strikeouts, and no home runs. That adds up to a stellar 3.03 FIP—and it’s the main reason why manager Ned Yost’s team is off to a 3-2 start, considering that his offense has only produced 16 runs to date.


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March 19, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Rotation Rumble

8

Jay Jaffe

How do the junior circuit's rotations shake out when offseason additions are tallied?

Two years ago, the Rangers made a bold gambit that helped end nearly a decade of rotation-driven futility, shifting reliever C.J. Wilson to the starting five and bringing former supplemental first-round draft pick Colby Lewis back from Japan. Both pitchers did what Ranger hurlers of recent vintage had not: miss bats. In 2010, the two pitchers combined for 366 K's in 405 innings, helping the Rangers jump from 12th in the league in strikeouts to fourth. Helped by other upgrades—shortstop Elvis Andrus keyed a defensive turnaround—they won the AL pennant, and last year they repeated the feat.

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February 22, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview

28

Derek Carty and Michael Jong

Roundtable discussion of the pressing questions facing the NL East teams as we approach the start of the season

1) After a disappointing sophomore campaign, what can we expect of Jason Heyward going forward?
MJ:
Jason Heyward had an injury-riddled sophomore season in Atlanta, but there is a lot to like about his chances at a rebound campaign in 2012. His offensive line was deflated by a .260 BABIP, but his peripherals were once again stellar. His 11.6 percent walk rate represented a regression from 2010 but cannot be considered poor, and his .162 ISO likewise dropped from the previous year but did not experience a precipitous fall.


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February 20, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview

19

R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

Roundtable discussion of the most pressing issues facing each AL East team entering Spring Training

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4







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November 1, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Perspective: Moving Forward in Miami

9

Bradley Ankrom

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria would like to make a smash as the Fish move into their new park, but the team would be better off making only minor moves.

Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria wants people to forget about the Florida Marlins, forget about Sun Life Stadium, and forget about a miserable year that saw the team spend 92 of the final 105 days of the season in the cold, dark cellar of the National League East, only its second last-place finish since Loria purchased the team, unopposed, from John Henry in 2002.

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Sizing up every facet of each contender in this season's Fall Classic.

The Breakdown

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September 16, 2011 11:23 am

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Kansas City Royals

16

Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

The Royals are loaded with young talent, but they're still experiencing growing pains

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fadewhether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview from Baseball Prospectus, a front-office take from former MLB GM Jim Bowden, a best- and worst-case scenario ZiPS projection for 2012 from Dan Szymborski, and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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September 14, 2011 9:00 am

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Washington Nationals

17

Steven Goldman, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

Stephen Strasburg's return and a deep farm system give Washington hope.

Kiss 'Em Goodbye is a series focusing on MLB teams as their postseason dreams fadewhether in September (or before), the League Division Series, League Championship Series or World Series. It combines a broad overview from Baseball Prospectus, a front-office take from former MLB GM Jim Bowden, a best- and worst-case scenario ZiPS projection for 2012 from Dan Szymborski, and Kevin Goldstein's farm system overview.

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July 21, 2011 5:01 am

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West

1

Joey Matschulat

The rest of the division may be a dud, but the Rangers' red-hot run looks all the more impressive when compared to their past rotations.

I'm beginning to wonder if I’ve broken the AL West. I'm being facetious, of course, but the timing has caught me a little off guard. Since writing at length about how Seattle was making something of a spirited go at the division crown and might have a decent shot at swinging a .500 season, the Mariners have dropped from an even 38-38 (2 ½ games back) to 43-54 (12 ½ games), effectively crushing any lingering hopes of contending in 2011. Something similarly strange has happened to the Angels, as my efforts to paint them as legitimate contenders for the division crown just seven days ago had been rewarded by a sharp 3 ½-game drop in the standings and a one-week post-season odds plunge of 11.9 percent going into Wednesday night.

But rather than falsely attribute the coincidentally-timed struggles of the Rangers' competition to any of my work at Baseball Prospectus, let's just be brutally honest about what's going on here: Texas has gone into hyperdrive. Seriously. Before dropping a 9-8 heartbreaker in Anaheim during the waning hours of Wednesday evening (a game the Rangers led by an 8-3 margin after chasing Dan Haren early, leading to a peak win expectancy of 96.4 percent), Texas had collected 12 straight wins, a high-water mark for winning streaks among American League ballclubs since the Red Sox accomplished that same feat back in June 2006.

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July 5, 2011 9:00 am

Painting the Black: Six-Man Mania

4

R.J. Anderson

Does a recent rash of experimentation with six-man rotations make sense, and is it likely to be emulated in future seasons?

People love to label phases and eras, so few periods in baseball have gone without names. The 2010 season will be known as the Year of the Pitcher, if last year’s coverage is any indication, just as the Dead-Ball Era lives on nearly a century later. If the first half of the 2011 season comes away with a nickname, history will have to choose between three compelling options: the Year of the Pitcher II, the Summer of Geriatric Managers, and the Invasion of the Six-Man Rotations. Sequels suck and demographics matter, leaving the latter as the most logical choice. The Yankees have thought about going to a six-man rotation, and the Athletics will use one—at least for a week—and when the rich and smart kids are thinking about making a particular move, then it’s time to talk about it.  

The most effective means of using starting pitchers has always been a hot topic in the sabermetric community, and it’s inextricably tied to workloads, which in turn inevitably leads back to a discussion of optimal rotation size. In Baseball Between The Numbers, Prospectus alum Keith Woolner wrote about the advantages in going to a four-man rotation—citing, among other reasons, fewer starts going to poor fifth starters and an extra roster spot (Rany Jazayerli hit on similar points during his series in 2002). Another sabermetric publication, The Book (by Tom Tango, Andrew Dolphin, and Mitchel Lichtman), also addressed the topic. Within, the trio suggests that the optimal rest period is five days, while the worst is three days—concluding that four days of rest, the amount currently employed by most teams, is a good compromise.

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