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April 1, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Punting Saves

0

Jeff Quinton

The auction values at hand lead Jeff to punt saves, leaving him with plenty to spend on his four-star infielders of choice.

The Process

You have to start somewhere and I started with the goal of getting good players. Really, this is exercise is the person assembling the roster (me) versus Mike Gianella (versus other contestants versus Gianella); this is unfortunate for me because I use Mike’s valuations as a starting point for my offseason process.

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April 1, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: The Big Outfield

2

George Bissell

Mookie Betts leads George's loaded group out on the pasture, while Carlos Carrasco and Adam Wainwright anchor his pitching staff.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget.

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March 31, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Spreading the Dollars and Mitigating Risk

2

Scooter Hotz

Two Astros outfielders headline Scooter's offense, while Kluber, Thor, and Archer anchor his staff.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by our fantasy overlord, Mr. Sayre:

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March 30, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Sweet Bryce, Do It for Me Twice

0

Wilson Karaman

Wilson counts on a worthy encore from the defending National League MVP to anchor his squad.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits, and that annual rite of passage spurred an idea from Bret Sayre a few years back called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by Sayre:

We are using the mixed-league values.

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March 30, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: The 70/30 Split ... Almost

0

Bret Sayre

Bret aims to spend 70 percent of his budget on bats, and comes a dollar short with high-upside outfielders in tow.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by our fantasy overlord, Mr. Sayre:

We are using the mixed-league values.

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March 30, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Shooting for the Middle

0

Greg Wellemeyer

Greg shies away from most positions' top players, instead seeking bargains, upside plays, and steady hands in the middle tiers.

Process

In a redraft auction setting, I rarely invest in any player at a top-of-the-position price. I’m just not a believer that the premium paid for the perceived best player at any given position accurately reflects the probability that he actually out-earns the alternatives, and much less that he does so by the margin required to substantiate the price difference.

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The fantasy gang reveals some of its favorite and least-favorite 2016 targets, plus much more.

With Opening Day right around the corner, it’s prediction time! The fantasy staff at Baseball Prospectus thought we’d take a crack at trying to make some predictions of our own. Feel free to come back and laugh at the ones we got ridiculously wrong six months from now, while ignoring the ones we got right.

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March 29, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Follow Your Heart

4

J.P. Breen

After a rough first year, J.P. picks the players he likes, eschewing the "safe" picks that went awry in 2015.

Process

This is my second year participating in the My Model Portfolio competition, which means I attempted to learn from last year’s missteps and to employ a better overall strategy. In 2015, I single-handedly coughed up the title due to Kyle Lohse’s self-immolation on the mound in Milwaukee. Other poor picks included Erick Aybar, Michael Cuddyer, Brandon Moss, and Danny Santana. In other words, I erred when I opted for “safe” players, rather than players I actually liked.

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March 29, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: $30-Plus Players Need Not Apply

0

Matt Collins

Matt spreads the wealth around, with his top buys both coming in at $27.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by our fantasy overlord, Mr. Sayre:

We are using the mixed-league values.

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March 28, 2016 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Goldschmidt, Correa, Machado'What Could Go Wrong?

3

J.J. Jansons

J.J. unveils his ideal 2016 fantasy squad with a three-headed monster anchoring his lineup.

Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by our fantasy overlord, Mr. Sayre:

We are using the mixed-league values.

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March 18, 2016 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Recapping the 2015 Model Portfolios

0

Greg Wellemeyer

Looking back at what went right or wrong with the fantasy staff's ideal 2015 squads.

Our positional coverage is all wrapped up and draft season is drawing to a close as Opening Day nears. One feature we’ll be rolling out before then is My Model Portfolio, wherein our staff members will each pick a roster using Mike Gianella’s final auction values. You’ll see those values shortly and our individual authors’ model portfolios will follow the week after next.

Before we get there, though, how about a little accountability on last year’s picks? Easy for me to say since I wasn’t here yet. I’m judging these purely based on how much difference there was between Mike’s preseason auction values and his postseason valuations. There is no consideration for roster balance or categorical strength, this is purely an evaluation of whose draft day roster created the most raw profit over the course of the season.

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Our picks for the playoff races and major awards this season.

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.).

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