CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Futures Guide 2014 is Now Available in Paperback and Three E-book Formats.

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

Articles Tagged Significance 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

07-16

comment icon

16

Baseball Therapy: It's a Small Sample Size After All
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-24

comment icon

17

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: A Little Ditty About Life, Death, and Finding Perspective
by
Jason Parks

09-06

comment icon

13

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Rangers vs. Red Sox: Mexico Edition
by
Jason Parks

05-30

comment icon

10

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: U Got the Look: Fielding, Part II
by
Jason Parks

05-10

comment icon

12

Manufactured Runs: The Deconstruction of Falling Stars
by
Colin Wyers

12-31

comment icon

77

Prospectus Perspective: Bagging on Bagwell
by
Christina Kahrl

10-31

comment icon

10

World Series Prospectus: Game Three Report
by
John Perrotto

09-30

comment icon

24

Reintroducing PECOTA: Aches and Pains
by
Colin Wyers

04-30

comment icon

2

One-Hoppers: Can the Braves recover?
by
John Perrotto

04-21

comment icon

9

Game Story: Brewers at Pirates
by
Christina Kahrl

03-26

comment icon

17

OPS, I Did it Again
by
Colin Wyers

02-23

comment icon

31

Expanded Horizons: Overrating Fifth Starters
by
Tommy Bennett

02-10

comment icon

35

Introducing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman

01-22

comment icon

43

Under The Knife: Frickin' Laser Beams, Part 1
by
Will Carroll

01-11

comment icon

16

Checking the Numbers: Side Effects on Pitchers' Hitting
by
Russell A. Carleton and Eric Seidman

09-18

comment icon

3

Checking the Numbers: Whiffing the Pitcher, Part Two
by
Eric Seidman

09-01

comment icon

14

Ahead in the Count: Home-Field Advantage, Part Four
by
Matt Swartz

08-25

comment icon

24

Ahead in the Count: Home-Field Advantages, Part Three
by
Matt Swartz

08-11

comment icon

66

Ahead in the Count: Home-Field Advantages, Part One
by
Matt Swartz

03-25

comment icon

19

Checking the Numbers: Under Pressure
by
Eric Seidman

03-19

comment icon

9

Wait 'Til Next Year: The Week in College Baseball
by
Bryan Smith

08-03

comment icon

0

Prospectus Preview: Sunday's Games to Watch
by
Marc Normandin

08-16

comment icon

0

Schrodinger's Bat: Putting the Pedal to the Metal
by
Dan Fox

03-29

comment icon

0

Under The Knife: Day Games
by
Will Carroll

02-23

comment icon

0

Prospectus Today: Signature Insignificance
by
Joe Sheehan

09-14

comment icon

0

Lies, Damned Lies: ELO Considers the Yankees
by
Nate Silver

11-08

comment icon

0

Prospectus Matchups: Head Start on 2006
by
Jim Baker

10-10

comment icon

0

Prospectus Today: What Happened to the A's?
by
Joe Sheehan

05-22

comment icon

0

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

comment icon

0

Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

10-24

comment icon

0

Aim For The Head: They Cringed
by
Keith Woolner

09-18

comment icon

0

Tough Cops... and Other Ones
by
Michael Wolverton

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries

Russell reruns the numbers to determine when hitter stats stabilize.

Who said sabermetrics hasn't gone mainstream? We've now reached the point where even mainstream analysts are yelling "small sample size!" at one another. There's always been some understanding that a player who goes 4-for-5 in a game is not really an .800 hitter, but now, people are being more explicit in talking about sample size. I consider that a victory. Hooray for sabermetrics!

Read the full article...

While mortality can remind of us of the most important things in life, baseball can help us pull through our struggles.

The music for the mood is Scott Walker's Climate of Hunter, a devastatingly odd record, one that can plunge the healthiest of psyches into schizophrenia and at the same time provide schizophrenics a nipple from which to extract relational comfort. Walker’s voice is the screaming soul of man trying to find avenues out of the body. Right now, Scott Walker’s robust baritone is a warm cup of tea and a friend.

On the subject of friends, I just said goodbye to one of my oldest and dearest compadres. He died in his sleep of a heart attack at age 39. He was an 80-grade friend. His sudden death brought about a wave of raw emotion, the kind we keep safely secured in the basements of our psychological homes. The kind that we fear will scare those around us if too much light shines on its structure. The kind that forces your hands to reach out for the keys, in search of the safety you assume can be found in words. That emotion is very present.

Read the full article...

Our prospect guru finds himself in a food coma in Mexico, taking in a televised matchup between two AL contenders.

After a few weeks in Mexico, I happen upon my first televised major-league baseball game, a battle between the Texas Rangers and the Boston Red Sox, shown on ESPN. I’m excited for obvious reasons: The baseball void has already nullified a quarter of my general existence, and the Rangers are the team of my youth—I’m always willing to give them my eyes and ears. The game is dubbed in Spanish, which is annoying and rousing at the same time; the former because the speed of said Spanish is at Billy Hamilton level, and my overall comprehension requires the gentle pace of an aging Molina. My head is pounding from exposure to altitude and alcohol, but the medicinal qualities of baseball’s familiar attraction will no doubt minimize my discomfort.

I’ve been living in a foreign country for 15 days, and I’ve been exposed to more luchadores than lanzadores, which presents an interesting reality, although not one that proves to be especially productive for someone who (supposedly) feeds off the bosom of the game. It’s 2 p.m., and the game is set to begin, with Colby Lewis matched up against Texas native John Lackey. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is packed to capacity. I’m hydrating and reclining in a relaxed state. Oh, baseball.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Those who don the tools of ignorance don't just need physical prowess.

When it comes to evaluating low-level talent behind the plate backbone of the process is formed from observing the body and the natural movement(s) of the body—just like all other position evaluation. Baseball isn’t black and white, and players don’t always arrive wrapped in prototypical packages. This is especially true for catchers. When you think of a catcher’s build, what body type comes to mind? Let me guess: Shortish, with bulbous aspects of the frame (stocky); thick wrists; fullback body. Sound about right? You might think this represents the ideal, but ultimately it comes down to how the body works rather than how it measures out.

When evaluating a catcher, I care more about the athleticism, coordination, and strength involved than the inherent physical characteristics [read: height/weight]. Not every player carries weight well, or projects to carry weight well, while others inhabit bad bodies that somehow allow the requisite quickness and agility for the position to shine through. You can’t judge the body in isolation; you need to see the body walk the runway to see how it moves. Basic point: Just because the body doesn’t look the part doesn’t mean the body can’t perform the role. Basic Point #2 (which is really Basic Point #1 repackaged): Catchers can be fat.

Read the full article...

What does the future hold for Derek Jeter, and how can we tell?

Before we can talk about Derek Jeter (and yes, I think there’s still something to say about Derek Jeter that you haven’t already heard this season), we should probably clarify which Derek Jeter we’re talking about. There really are two Derek Jeters—the one who exists in fact, and the one who exists in myth.

The actual Derek Jeter is interesting enough as a player that one wonders why the myth was necessary—always an exceptional hitter, Jeter has always been a player who could’ve had a job on any team in the league. He will go into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot, and nobody will bat an eye. Then there’s the Captain—the athlete whom ad agencies consider akin to Tiger Woods and Roger Federer. The player so exceptional that he can displace a generational talent like Alex Rodriguez from his natural position.

Read the full article...

Character assassination, speculation, a commitment to process... ah, it has to be Hall of Fame season.

I doubt you've missed it, but the Hall of Fame announcement is coming next week. I should stress that I don't vote on the Hall of Fame because as of yet I cannot, and won't be eligible to for another eight years, if ever. As a result, I tend not to get as wrapped up in the annual frustrations with the process as some, having already long since despaired over the shabby treatment of the late Ron Santo for not getting voted in, not to mention the flabby gymnastics presented by way of explanation from that shrinking segment of voters determined to ignore Bert Blyleven. But I get asked about it often enough casually by people assuming that I must already be in the electorate; optimist that I am, I stick with the hope that, come the day, Tim Raines will never need my vote, and that justice will be done to the players who deserve election in the meantime, however fractiously, and with however many unhappy exceptions.

Read the full article...

The Rangers win the first-ever Fall Classic game in the Metroplex to claw (and antler) their way back into the series.

ARLINGTON—Giants manager Bruce Bochy said earlier in the postseason that his team reminded him of the "The Dirty Dozen," a band of castoffs and misfits. The media has run with that and Bochy's line has been repeated over and over for two weeks.

Read the full article...

Teaching PECOTA about injuries.

Any forecasting system is only as good as the inputs that go into it—once you get rolling from there you can certainly end up far worse than your data, but the quality and amount of data you have is a fundamental constraint.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 30, 2010 12:56 pm

One-Hoppers: Can the Braves recover?

2

John Perrotto

If Atlanta loses tonight and still makes the playoffs, it will make history.

The Braves' rallying point in 2010 is to send beloved manager Bobby Cox, who plans to retire at the end of the season, out in style. They hope to at least get back to the playoffs after a four-year absence and ultimately win their first World Series since 1995.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

A scurvy crew can hurt worse in the worst kinds of losses.

April being April, the Pirates were in second place at the start of tonight's action, while the Brewers sat below .500. The AL Central might get all the pub for personifying parity, but with the Cardinals out front and the Astros in the cellar, the Pirates can take some satisfaction in ranking atop the muddled middle in the division two weeks into the action. This early on, it would be silly to credit this with too much significance. At 5-7, the Brewers came into town with their own issues, but here again, two weeks is barely a blink in baseball time.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

March 26, 2010 12:25 pm

OPS, I Did it Again

17

Colin Wyers

The quick'n dirty offensive measure doesn't always correlate between individuals and teams.

So, how good is good enough, exactly? A recent blog post on ESPN looked at how OPS fares at explaining team runs. It’s a rather oft-repeated argument, to be sure—we can simply let it stand in for any number of articles in this vein:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

February 23, 2010 12:49 pm

Expanded Horizons: Overrating Fifth Starters

31

Tommy Bennett

The battles for fifth spots in rotations make for good spring stories, but are actually rather pointless.

This week, position players join pitchers and catchers at spring training. For those who travel to Florida or Arizona to cover the teams, reporting on the same story lines can grow tiresome. For others, enjoying watching the same story lines pop up again and again is half the fun.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries