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Articles Tagged Second Wild Card 

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10-01

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8

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 53: Is the Second Wild Card Working?/Explaining Mainstream Screeds Against Advanced Stats
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-17

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7

Bizball: Who is Getting the Most Bang for their Buck?
by
Maury Brown

09-19

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5

Prospectus Hit and Run: Backing into the Playoffs
by
Jay Jaffe

09-01

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2

Manufactured Runs: Raising the Stakes
by
Colin Wyers

08-25

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12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

04-27

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18

Ahead in the Count: Expanded Playoffs, Expanded Salaries
by
Matt Swartz

03-01

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

02-22

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26

The Payoff Pitch: Two, Three, Many Wild Cards!
by
Neil deMause

10-12

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3

Prospectus Hit List: Season Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

10-04

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3

It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
by
Christina Kahrl

08-21

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29

Prospectus Hit List: Patchwork
by
Jay Jaffe

11-07

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5

Prospectus Hit and Run: Divisionology
by
Jay Jaffe

10-05

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4

Prospectus Hit List: Season Wrap-up
by
Jay Jaffe

09-16

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: Burning Bullpens
by
Jay Jaffe

09-27

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

07-13

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Friday the 13th Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

11-09

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0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-06

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-04

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Week of October 2
by
Jay Jaffe

09-19

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 19th
by
Jay Jaffe

09-12

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 10
by
Jay Jaffe

08-22

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of August 20
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of July 9
by
Jay Jaffe

07-11

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Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

09-21

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Prospectus Today: The Wild Card
by
Joe Sheehan

09-10

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Prospectus Matchups: Wilding
by
Jim Baker

09-17

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Lies, Damned Lies: Wild Card: A Fairy Tale
by
Nate Silver

09-10

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0

Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Playoff Tiebreakers but Were Afraid to Ask
by
Christian Ruzich

07-10

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Arizona Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-31

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0

American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

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National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-15

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0

Individual Ballots
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-16

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0

Projected 1999 National League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-12

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0

Projected 1999 American League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-01

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Projected 1998 National League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-31

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Projected 1998 American League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

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October 5, 2008 1:27 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Season Wrap-up

4

Jay Jaffe

From not-quite juggernauts to the Nationals nightmare, how it all shakes out at season's end.

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September 16, 2008 1:33 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: Burning Bullpens

6

Jay Jaffe

A look at the degree to which the performance of relief pitchers is determining who might partner up for the post-season shuffle.

As the final two weeks of the season kick into gear, most of the post-season berths are still in play. Three of the six divisions-the AL East, AL Central, and NL East-feature races where the margin is two games or less, as does the race for the NL wild card. Adding to the drama is a flurry of games decided in the late innings, by timely hitting overcoming leaky bullpens. Consider Sunday's activity:

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September 27, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It

1

Nate Silver

Which teams blew the best possible shots at making the postseason, and where do the ill-fated teams on this year's NL slate stand to land?

Today's article represents an update of Clay Davenport's piece from two years ago that described the biggest collapses in playoff chase history (spoiler alert!), as defined by the teams that had the highest percentage chance to reach the playoffs at some point during the regular season who then failed to do so. I have a comprehensive set of playoff odds reports that Clay prepared for us in connection with It Ain't Over, and was therefore able to identify a couple of races that Clay had missed during his spot-checking. In addition, I will be looking all the way back to the start of the season, rather than limiting things to August 1st as Clay did; it's surprisingly easy for teams to establish a stranglehold on a playoff spot relatively early in the season in the Wild Card era, and if they're a bit less dramatic as narratives go, those collapses still deserve discussion. In addition, Clay has made some improvements to his methodology since the time his article was originally published, so all of that goodness is incorporated herein.

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Somebody's going to make it out alive, but who's chances are rising and falling?

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November 9, 2006 12:00 am

Predictatron Recap

0

Ben Murphy

BP's newest contest is taken down by a Twins fan.

Just as I did last year, I'm here to follow up the HACKING MASS Wrap with a look at this year's Predictatron results. This is the second year we've done the Predictatron contest, and it continues to be popular, for obvious reasons--trying to predict the order of finish and teams' eventual records is one of the oldest hobbies of baseball fans.

For those that haven't had the pleasure to compete, Predictatron is the annual contest at Baseball Prospectus where entrants can win $500 by predicting the total wins for each of the 30 major league teams, and the results of the playoffs. Basic scoring is set up so that everyone starts with 1000 points, and you lose points for every win you are off for each team; you can win points back with the playoffs. There are also a few wrinkles, like the Mortal Lock, so I'd encourage everyone to read the full rules.

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Jim digs back and looks at the best starting efforts by the Mets and Cardinals in the era of divisional play.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 6, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three

0

Joe Sheehan

The Yankees continued their run through the ... hey, not so fast! In San Diego, the Cardinals continued to make a statement about the importance of home-field advantage, while in New York the Mets were the one team to keep order in the first two games.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160157644_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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October 4, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit List: Week of October 2

0

Jay Jaffe

Despite a better Hit List finish than in 2005, the White Sox are nursing their chai teas and watching from home. The last Hit List of the 2006 season finds justice and injustice up and down the majors.

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Angels and Blue Jays fans get the short end of the stick in the real standings, but they'll always have the Hit List.

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The surging Indians turn it on when it doesn't count in the strongest division in baseball, while former Red Sox prospects turn it on across the country in this week's Hit List.

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The Blue Jays are in the top ten in this week's Hit List, but is it enough to save J.P.'s job? Also, the Mets and Tigers give a little back in the postseason odds report, but are still among the top teams in the majors.

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Jay has the newest rankings, plus a first-half breakdown of all major league teams.

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