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Articles Tagged Scoring 

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08-16

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3

BP Unfiltered: Because No One Else Would Drive Them In
by
Geoff Young

07-26

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4

BP Unfiltered: Mario Guerrero’s Scoring Problem
by
Geoff Young

03-11

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38

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Quality Stat, Better than Wins
by
Jay Jaffe

06-15

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: Year of the Pitcher?
by
Jay Jaffe

05-19

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6

Manufactured Runs: Everything You Wanted to Know About Run Prevention But Were Afraid to Ask, Part 1
by
Colin Wyers

03-14

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9

Circling The Bases: Cleaning Up the (Run-Scoring) Environment with EPA
by
Tim Kniker

03-07

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3

Prospectus Q&A: Chaz Scoggins
by
David Laurila

08-03

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46

Ahead in the Count: Runs Per Inning, and Why I Love the Long Ball
by
Matt Swartz

06-04

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0

Prospectus Hit and Run: How I Learned to Stop Worrying About Early-Season Scoring Levels and Love Larger Sample Sizes
by
Jay Jaffe

07-27

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It
by
Nate Silver

04-24

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Cruelest Month
by
Nate Silver

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

06-15

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0

Is Small Ball Also Smart Ball?
by
Sean Ehrlich

05-05

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0

Crooked Numbers: Do Not Pass Go
by
James Click

05-04

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Introducing ORVY
by
Nate Silver

05-13

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0

Breaking Balls: Keeping Score
by
Derek Zumsteg

06-20

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0

Aim For The Head: Response Rates
by
Keith Woolner

03-04

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Analytic Model Creation Contest
by
Keith Woolner

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If these guys didn't hit the ball out of the park, they probably weren't scoring.

In our earlier look at players who were immune to scoring runs, reader blocher asked about guys who hit a lot of home runs but otherwise didn't score much. He mentioned Andre Dawson's 1987 campaign, in which Dawson hit 49 homers but scored only 90 runs.

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Yonder Alonso may not score many runs, but at least he's no Mario Guerrero.

Yonder Alonso is a slow man playing for a bad team. He has 86 hits this season and 27 runs scored, a ratio of 3.19 to 1. That's worst in MLB among batting title qualifiers.

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Quality starts have value, despite the cavils of retrograde thinkers.

Murray Chass is at it again, or perhaps he never stopped. I'm not sure, as I'll admit an aversion to reading the blog of a writer who years ago declared his loathing for the form and its practitioners, but now dwells in that very ghetto himself since being laid off by the New York Times. Chass has made noise twice in recent weeks via missives bemoaning the diminishing primacy of pitcher wins and assailing the so-called "new-age thinking" of anyone who would introduce more modern measures, be they VORP, WAR(P), or quality starts. Even the latter, which was introduced by Philadelphia Inquirer columnist John Lowe back in 1985, is too newfangled for Chass' tastes.

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June 15, 2010 8:44 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Year of the Pitcher?

9

Jay Jaffe

Some outstanding early-season pitching gems have caused the decrease in run scoring to be overstated.

In the wake of Ubaldo Jimenez's no-hitter, two perfect games, Armando Galarraga's near-perfecto and Stephen Strasburg's sizzling debut, we've been treated to a spate of "Year of the Pitcher" articles, even from within the BP fold. While none of the pundits have gone so far as to suggest that it's 1968 all over again—Jimenez's Bob Gibson-esque 1.16 ERA notwithstanding—the collective wisdom of such pieces suggests that the pendulum that has favored offense for the better part of the past two decades has finally swung in the other direction.

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Breaking down the basics of estimating runs and why it is so important.

We spend a lot of time analyzing baseball, studying it, trying to learn about it, and simply enjoying it. But what if I were to tell you that there was a secret to understanding baseball, a shortcut to knowing (almost) everything you would ever need to know?

Well, there is. And it’s hiding in plain sight–it’s the second line of the official rules of baseball: “The objective of each team is to win by scoring more runs than the opponent.”

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Playing the percentages means different things in different circumstances.

Ugh!  What is that vile stench? That’s right, it’s Sidney Ponson starts and the Mariners' offense polluting our pristine Run Expectancy and Win Expectancy Matrices. Before we write our congressman to apply for stimulus money for the cleanup, let's ask: How did it get this way?

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Revisiting a conversation with the long-time official scorer in Boston.

Chaz Scoggins has been the primary official scorer at Fenway Park for over 30 years. A long-time sportswriter for The Lowell Sun and a former president of the Baseball Writers Association of America, Scoggins sat down for this interview in December 2004.

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Have some of us been overlooking the obvious when it comes to scoring runs?

If you have ever tried to explain the concept of Pythagorean Record to a baseball novice, you probably have had to answer the following criticism: "That counts the extra runs at the end of a blowout as much as other runs, even though it does not matter whether you win 10-0 or 15-0." The answer that we give to that criticism is that teams that can take advantage of blowouts have better offenses and those type of teams will be more likely to win close games in the future. That is the reason that we have thousand-run estimators that try to approximate how many runs a team will score on average, and why we evaluate players with statistics like VORP-measured in runs over replacement player. Runs are the building blocks of wins, and you win by scoring more runs than your opponent. We cringe when we hear offenses evaluated by batting average because we know that the goal of offenses is to score runs, not get hits.

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Examining a strange love for early-season results.

I've spent the past few weeks romping through baseball history in this space, and in the meantime we've passed both the one-quarter and one-third marks in the season. Now that the sample sizes have been beefed up a bit, the statistics we're seeing have started to accumulate a bit more weight, both on the spreadsheet and in the public mind.

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July 27, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Fixing It

0

Nate Silver

Could a Donaghy scenario happen in baseball?

Baseball must be toasting this week's sports pages over glasses of vodka and schadenfreude. Last Friday, NBA referee Tim Donaghy was implicated in a betting scandal. On Wednesday, Tour de France leader Michael Rasmussen, under heavy suspicion of doping, was kicked out of the race by his own team. And on Thursday, Michael Vick was scrambling away from reporters in a federal courthouse, rather than opposing linebackers on the field.

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April 24, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: The Cruelest Month

0

Nate Silver

Nate goes digging for the reason offense is down across baseball.

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Jim digs back and looks at the best starting efforts by the Mets and Cardinals in the era of divisional play.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160845280_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

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