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06-15

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Outta Left Field: Do Cueto's Shimmies Work?
by
Dustin Palmateer

06-01

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2

Outta Left Field: The Only Rule Is It Has To Quirk
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-26

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Life at the Margins: The Giants Have Had a Good Week
by
Rian Watt

05-23

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2

What You Need to Know: Matt Cain's Campaign To Get His 2018 Option Picked Up Wins the Weekend
by
Ashley Varela

04-29

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2

Prospectus Feature: Goodbye, April: You Are Not Special
by
Rob Mains

04-11

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What You Need to Know: The Fella's Last Name Is Story
by
Ashley Varela

03-31

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1

Rumor Roundup: Tim Lincecum, Still Exists
by
Demetrius Bell

03-17

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10

Rumor Roundup: LaRoche Opts to See Son This Season
by
Demetrius Bell

03-15

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8

Baseball Therapy: Bringing Down The House
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-09

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2

Rumor Roundup: Sorry, Missed Jackson
by
Daniel Rathman

12-16

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Prospectus Feature: The New Dominican Dandy?
by
Daniel Rathman

12-15

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9

Transaction Analysis: Cueto Two Years From Now
by
Matthew Trueblood and Ben Carsley

12-09

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11

Banished To The Pen: What If Barry Bonds Had Been Nice?
by
Andrew Patrick

12-09

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Raising Aces: Free Agent Roulette: Jeff Samardzija and Hisashi Iwakuma
by
Doug Thorburn

12-05

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Transaction Analysis: Shark Who Goes There
by
Rian Watt and George Bissell

12-04

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Transaction Analysis: NL Non-Tenders To Rock Your World
by
R.J. Anderson

11-23

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Rumor Roundup: What a Lovely O'Day
by
Daniel Rathman

11-19

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6

Transaction Analysis: The Crawford Comps
by
Sam Miller

10-27

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Kauffman Stadium
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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3

Pitching Backward: Some Signatures Are Forgeries
by
Jeff Long

09-29

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Transaction Analysis: So Goes Dipoto
by
R.J. Anderson

05-22

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2

What You Need to Know: Bummed!
by
Daniel Rathman

05-13

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2

The BP Wayback Machine: Sign Barry Bonds
by
Joe Sheehan

04-29

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4

What You Need to Know: HIS NAME IS... !
by
Daniel Rathman

04-24

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10

What You Need to Know: Shenanigans!
by
Daniel Rathman

04-15

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11

Rubbing Mud: The Early-Season Odds Changers
by
Matthew Trueblood

04-03

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Pitching Backward: Do the Bullpens that Stay Together Parade Together?
by
Jeff Long

03-16

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13

Every Team's Moneyball: San Francisco Giants: Embodying the Market Inefficiency
by
Matthew Trueblood

01-26

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2

Transaction Analysis: Miami Ich
by
R.J. Anderson

01-22

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2

Rumor Roundup: Jonathan Singleton Is Probably Not the Breakout Candidate You're Looking For
by
Chris Mosch

01-19

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2

Transaction Analysis: Unlikely Nori
by
R.J. Anderson and Craig Goldstein

01-05

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24

2015 Prospects: San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

12-19

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Transaction Analysis: Bringing the Band Back Together... Again
by
Daniel Rathman and Wilson Karaman

12-18

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3

Fantasy Team Preview: San Francisco Giants
by
Jeff Quinton

12-05

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Rumor Roundup: The Least Likely Melky Cabrera Suitor
by
Daniel Rathman

12-02

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6

Painting the Black: The Ones That Sabean Let Get Away
by
R.J. Anderson

11-25

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3

Rumor Roundup: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Immediately
by
Daniel Rathman

11-18

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Rumor Roundup: Are the Jays Preparing to Splurge?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-03

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32

Prospectus Feature: The Decision that Decided a World Series
by
Dustin Palmateer

10-31

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11

Raising Aces: Bum Deal
by
Doug Thorburn

10-30

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Pitching Backward: Sing, Sing, Sing, for the Unsung Affeldt
by
Jeff Long

10-30

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2

Painting the Black: That Time We All Hated the Mike Morse Signing
by
R.J. Anderson

10-30

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5

Playoff Prospectus: The Giants Win The World Series, Again
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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BP Unfiltered: The Reason Bumgarner Should Start (Even Though He Won't)
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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3

BP Unfiltered: Why NOT to Start Madison Bumgarner
by
Russell A. Carleton

10-29

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2

Moonshot: Do the Giants Beat the Heat?
by
Robert Arthur

10-29

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14

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game 7 Preview
by
Sam Miller

10-29

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Playoff Prospectus: Second-Inning Struggles
by
Sahadev Sharma

10-28

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Playoff Prospectus: 1-2-3 Repeater
by
Miles Wray

10-27

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15

Playoff Prospectus: Mad Cool
by
Sam Miller

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Do 37 different deliveries make for a better pitcher?

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There is no pitcher like Johnny Cueto, and he's danged good to boot.

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The improbably predictable Giants.

The Giants won yesterday, 4-3 in extra innings against the Padres, and even before they did, they had the best week of any team in baseball. By BP’s own reckoning, in the form of our Playoff Odds report, their chances of making a postseason appearance this year increased by the largest amount—17.0 percent—of any other team this week, and that’s before the system had a chance to consider Brandon Crawford’s walkoff single by the bay last night. When it does, their odds of tasting October in this, an even year, will go up further, not only because the Padres are a division rival but because, as well, the season is one day closer to its end.

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The 2010 Giants are back, sort of. Meanwhile, Noah Syndergaard continues his takeover of the world, while Joe Kelly flashes great stuff.

The Weekend Takeaway
The ghost of the 2010 Giants was resurrected on Saturday when Matt Cain delivered his first win of 2016. Yes, yes, the baseball-god-defying Giants did lay claim to championship titles in 2012 and 2014, but the last time Cain’s cFIP dipped under 100 in a winning Giants season, he was headlining the rotation with Tim Lincecum and sporting a career-high 6.1 WARP while the club marched to their its World Series in San Francisco.


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What did we learn about various players and teams this month? Less than we'll learn in the next one.

Early season baseball is full of articles about “What we’ve learned so far” after a week, or two weeks, or a month of play. You can’t really blame the sportswriters and TV sports producers and podcast hosts who come up with these pieces. They have to talk about something, and there aren’t any pennant races or awards competitions to discuss in April.

As Russell Carleton has demonstrated, though, most measures of baseball performance take far longer than a week or three to stabilize. Drawing conclusions from a 10- or 20-game sample is akin to statistics problem sets involving drawing balls from an urn. A really, really big urn. With lots and lots of balls in it. When you draw a few balls from a really, really big urn with lots and lots of balls in it, you don’t get a good picture of what’s really in the urn.

But how useless are April statistics? Are they worse than those from other months? On one hand, last April Andrew McCutchen batted .194/.302/.333 and Jose Iglesias batted .377/.427/.536. Jon Lester had a 6.23 ERA while Ubaldo Jimenez’s was 1.59. Those weren't particularly durable figures. On the other hand Dallas Keuchel’s 0.73 April ERA and Josh Donaldson’s .319/.370/.549 April batting line were.

We can look at the relevance of April numbers by correlating them to players’ full-year figures, and comparing the correlation in April to that of May, June, July, August, and September. (Throughout this analysis, April includes a few days of March play in the relevant years, and September includes a few days of October games.) To do this, I selected batting title and ERA qualifiers from each of the past 10 seasons and compared their monthly results to their full-year results. I had a sample of 1,487 batter seasons with corresponding monthly data in about 87 percent of months and 850 pitcher seasons with corresponding monthly data in 86 percent of months.

Admittedly, there’s a selection bias in April data, and it applies mostly to young players. Since I’m comparing monthly data to full-year data for batting title and ERA qualifiers, I’m selecting from those players who hung around long enough to compile 502 plate appearances or 162 innings pitched. If you’re a young player who puts up a .298/.461/.596 batting line in April, as Joc Pederson did last April, you get to stick around to get your 502 plate appearances, even though 261 of your plate appearances occurred during July, August, and September, when you hit .170/.300/.284. On the other hand, if you bat .147/.284/.235 in April, as Rougned Odor did, you do get a chance to bat .352/.426/.639 in 124 plate appearances spread between May and June, but you get them in Round Rock instead of Arlington. So there’s a bias in this analysis in favor of players who perform well in April (giving them a chance to continue to play) compared to those who don’t (who may get shipped out). This shouldn’t have a big impact on the overall variability of April data, though, since the presence of early-season outperformers like Pederson who get full-time status on the strength of their April is canceled, to an extent, by early-season underperformers like Odor who don’t.

So is April more predictive than other months? Here’s a chart for batters, using OPS as the measure, comparing the correlation between batters’ full-year performance and that of each month.

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Trevor Story can't stop hitting home runs, Vince Velasquez nearly pulls off a no-hitter, and Bartolo Colon resurrects the panache of Willie Mays.

The Weekend Takeaway
Both the Padres and the Rockies had something to rejoice over in the 13-6 slugfest on Friday night. It’s been a long, long week in the NL West, especially for the Friars, who had managed to string together 30 scoreless innings to begin the season. Those 13 runs must've felt like an exorcism.


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Tim Lincecum's showcase remains somewhere down the road. Meanwhile, James Loney might be coming to a town near you and Trevor Story might be coming to a ROY race near you.

Tim Lincecum wants to be "perfect" for potential showcase
Opening Day is only a few days away, and one notable player who more than likely won’t be ready is free agent pitcher Tim Lincecum. The former Giant, former All-Star, former Cy Young winner, etc., is still working out on his own, and rumors of his big impending showcase have thus far been greatly exaggerated.


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Ruben Tejada is released, Johnny Cueto is rattled, and Adam LaRoche is retired.

Adam LaRoche would rather kick it with his boy than play for the Chicago White Sox
Earlier this week, Adam LaRoche shocked the Chicago White Sox by abruptly announcing his retirement from baseball. The timing of this move was particularly interesting, as it’s the middle of spring training and he’s also walking away from $13 million. Even when you consider that he didn’t exactly have a glorious 2015 season—he hit .207/.293/.340 with a TAv of .233, same as Tyson Ross—and was entering his age-36 season on a bit of a slow start due to health concern, it was hard to see why LaRoche would choose to walk away from so much money and a starting job.


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The baseball missteps of of a sitcom reboot.

I’d say that Fuller House, the Netflix revival of the 1990s sitcom of a slightly shorter name, is a guilty pleasure of mine, but first you have to feel guilty about it. Yes, the scripts are still uproariously bad, but the cheese factor was what made the show good to begin with. In a world where everyone has to be too cool for everyone and everything, it’s nice to think that we can all solve our problems in the space of 30 minutes with a hug. Maybe it’s just nice to remember the 90s, when everyone wasn’t so uptight about everything.

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You can plan a pretty picnic but you can't predict Almonte. Meanwhile, the Cubs have balked at a long extension for Jake Arrieta, and Tim Lincecum's unemployment shows why.

Austin Jackson chose White Sox for opportunity to play center field
When Austin Jackson put pen to paper last week, the headline on the website of the Cleveland Plain Dealer read, “Austin Jackson signs with an AL Central team in need of outfield help.” The Indians were a natural fit for Jackson, even before Abraham Almonte was slapped with an 80-game suspension. Almonte’s half-season ban seemed likely to add urgency to their pursuit of the former Tigers outfielder, perhaps enough for general manager Mike Chernoff to overcome his budgetary constraints.

Alas, it wasn’t in the cards. The AL Central team that now employs Jackson is not the Tribe but the White Sox, who inked him to a one-year, $5 million contract. And the runner-up in the race to sign the 29-year-old wasn’t Cleveland, but Anaheim, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.


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When Johnny Cueto makes his first start for the Giants, it will end a very unusual streak in San Francisco.

Over the past 19 seasons, there have been 6,700 regular-season major-league games started (GS) logged by pitchers born in the Dominican Republic. The Giants are responsible for one of them.

On April 2, 2008, the Giants were slated to play the Dodgers in Los Angeles in the third game of each club’s regular season. The sky was partly clear at first-pitch time, but the Doppler radar just west of Dodger Stadium was as green as the oncoming clouds were dark, and managers Bruce Bochy and Joe Torre were in a bind. Starting the probables, Tim Lincecum and Chad Billingsley, meant begging for a mid-game dilemma—pitching a dynamic young starter on both sides of a delay or wearing out the bullpen in an early-April contest—which would leave each skipper open to media scrutiny just days into the season. After some deliberation, Torre gave the ball to one of his relievers, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Bochy followed suit by scratching Lincecum for Merkin Valdez.

Rain delays are a rarity in Chavez Ravine—almost as rare as Dominican-born starters donning the Giants’ orange and black. There have been only two of them since that April evening: on May 23, 2008, and April 7, 2015. One of those brought the tarp out pre-game, the other in the ninth. Neither required a manager to weigh the risk of losing his starter in the early frames.

Valdez, whose career in the majors spanned parts of five rocky seasons, is the answer to several trivia questions. He is one of eight players to appear in three different Futures Games. He was once traded (with Damian Moss) for Russ Ortiz. And he went by Manny Mateo at the time of said trade. But all of those pale in comparison to this one:

In a 19-year span, Valdez was the Giants’ only Dominican-born starter. And he was afforded that opportunity by accident.

Since Juan Marichal—the first-ever Dominican-born Hall of Famer, a Giants legend immortalized with a statue outside AT&T Park’s right-field gate—left San Francisco for Boston after the 1973 season, precious few of his fellow countrymen have pitched in the Giants’ rotation:

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The Giants outbid their big-spending divisional rivals (the Diamondbacks).

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