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Articles Tagged San Diego Padres 

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06-18

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BP South Side
by
James Fegan

06-09

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1

What You Need to Know: Bad Braves Snap Pitiful Streak
by
Demetrius Bell

06-08

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5

Cold Takes: The Stolen Bases Stolen From Us
by
Patrick Dubuque

06-07

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2

Prospectus Feature: Do Pathetic, Embarrassing, Miserable Failures Breed Success?
by
Rob Mains

06-06

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Transaction Analysis: Small Trade James
by
James Fegan, Jeff Quinton, Christopher Crawford and Bryan Grosnick

06-03

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1

What You Need to Know: Don't Know What the Hurry Is
by
Nicolas Stellini

06-02

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8

Prospectus Feature: The Matt Bush Challenge
by
Trevor Strunk

06-01

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1

What You Need to Know: The Catcher Who Threw 96 In A Blowout
by
Emma Baccellieri

06-01

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2

Outta Left Field: The Only Rule Is It Has To Quirk
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-20

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1

Transaction Analysis: Nathan Trying To Be Famous Again
by
Bryan Grosnick

05-18

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4

Outta Left Field: The Physics Of Derek Norris Throwing From His Knees
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-06

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1

What You Need to Know: Yankees Find a New Way to Lose
by
Emma Baccellieri

04-29

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2

Prospectus Feature: Goodbye, April: You Are Not Special
by
Rob Mains

04-15

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17

Pebble Hunting: So I Guess This Is Vince Velasquez Now
by
Sam Miller

04-11

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What You Need to Know: The Fella's Last Name Is Story
by
Ashley Varela

03-30

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2

Transaction Analysis: Deep Cuts For The SuperFans
by
Bryan Grosnick

03-29

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4

Winter Is Leaving
by
Dustin Palmateer

02-11

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1

Rubbing Mud: Three Evolving Hitters
by
Matthew Trueblood

01-20

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4

Outta Left Field: This Is the Padre Way
by
Dustin Palmateer

01-15

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Transaction Analysis: San Diego's Short-Term Shortstop Solution
by
Matthew Trueblood

01-05

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6

Rumor Roundup: The Slow Burn Of Ian Desmond's Free Agency
by
Daniel Rathman

12-31

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3

Best of BP 2015: The Season's Craziest Second-Half Split
by
Dustin Palmateer

12-11

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Transaction Analysis: The Ex-Prospects Challenge Trade
by
R.J. Anderson

12-09

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14

Outta Left Field: The Season's Craziest Second-Half Split
by
Dustin Palmateer

10-29

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2

Outta Left Field: Preller's Problems
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-22

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6

West Coast By Us: Day 1: In The Land Where Everybody Is Immediately Put On TV
by
Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman

05-04

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The Call-Up: Austin Hedges
by
Christopher Crawford and J.P. Breen

04-20

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4

Tools of Ignorance: The San Diego Hedgehogs?
by
Jeff Quinton

04-10

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28

Rubbing Mud: Carlos Quentin's DFA is This Godforsaken Era in a Nutshell
by
Matthew Trueblood

04-06

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33

Transaction Analysis: The Last Blockbuster of the Offseason
by
Matthew Trueblood, Mark Anderson, Bret Sayre and Wilson Karaman

04-01

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Transaction Analysis: Spring Shuffling
by
R.J. Anderson

03-25

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4

Painting the Black: Getting Personal
by
R.J. Anderson

03-18

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4

Every Team's Moneyball: San Diego Padres: Payroll Tetris
by
Doug Thorburn

03-12

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Only Thing Left That Matters Is Cuban
by
Daniel Rathman

03-11

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4

Rumor Roundup: Olivera, Why Not Take Olivera?
by
Chris Mosch

03-02

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4

Rumor Roundup: You Can't Predict Padres
by
Daniel Rathman

02-27

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9

Prospectus Feature: A.J. Preller's Offseason and the Toronto Precedent
by
Steven Jacobson

02-25

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2

Rumor Roundup: Closer Closer to Closing Deal
by
Daniel Rathman

02-10

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19

Tools of Ignorance: How the Padres Won the Offseason
by
Jeff Quinton

02-10

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Rumor Roundup: Mysterious Blob Will Attempt To Eat Yoan Moncada Next
by
Daniel Rathman

02-10

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13

Transaction Analysis: Padres Have Big Aims, James
by
Russell A. Carleton and Wilson Karaman

02-05

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2

Transaction Analysis: An Ax To Sign
by
R.J. Anderson

02-02

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1

Rumor Roundup: The Right-Handed Reliever You Covet For The Seventh Inning Might Still Be Available!
by
Daniel Rathman

01-13

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6

Rumor Roundup: Three Stories About NL West Teams Pursuing Pitching
by
Daniel Rathman

12-31

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Transaction Analysis: Rays Take A Cab
by
R.J. Anderson, Wilson Karaman and Nick Shlain

12-24

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34

2015 Prospects: San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects
by
Nick J. Faleris and BP Prospect Staff

12-22

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8

Ninety Percent Mental: The Predictable Aggressiveness of a First-Year GM
by
Lewie Pollis

12-20

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10

Transaction Analysis: Padres Wish Upton a Star
by
R.J. Anderson, Wilson Karaman, Bret Sayre, Jordan Gorosh, Jeff Moore and Ethan Purser

12-19

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5

Transaction Analysis: Catchin' Relief
by
Matthew Trueblood, R.J. Anderson, Wilson Karaman, Mike Gianella, Jordan Gorosh and Chris Rodriguez

12-18

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Transaction Analysis: What the Rays and Nationals Got
by
Tucker Blair, Jordan Gorosh, Chris Rodriguez and J.P. Breen

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What did we learn about various players and teams this month? Less than we'll learn in the next one.

Early season baseball is full of articles about “What we’ve learned so far” after a week, or two weeks, or a month of play. You can’t really blame the sportswriters and TV sports producers and podcast hosts who come up with these pieces. They have to talk about something, and there aren’t any pennant races or awards competitions to discuss in April.

As Russell Carleton has demonstrated, though, most measures of baseball performance take far longer than a week or three to stabilize. Drawing conclusions from a 10- or 20-game sample is akin to statistics problem sets involving drawing balls from an urn. A really, really big urn. With lots and lots of balls in it. When you draw a few balls from a really, really big urn with lots and lots of balls in it, you don’t get a good picture of what’s really in the urn.

But how useless are April statistics? Are they worse than those from other months? On one hand, last April Andrew McCutchen batted .194/.302/.333 and Jose Iglesias batted .377/.427/.536. Jon Lester had a 6.23 ERA while Ubaldo Jimenez’s was 1.59. Those weren't particularly durable figures. On the other hand Dallas Keuchel’s 0.73 April ERA and Josh Donaldson’s .319/.370/.549 April batting line were.

We can look at the relevance of April numbers by correlating them to players’ full-year figures, and comparing the correlation in April to that of May, June, July, August, and September. (Throughout this analysis, April includes a few days of March play in the relevant years, and September includes a few days of October games.) To do this, I selected batting title and ERA qualifiers from each of the past 10 seasons and compared their monthly results to their full-year results. I had a sample of 1,487 batter seasons with corresponding monthly data in about 87 percent of months and 850 pitcher seasons with corresponding monthly data in 86 percent of months.

Admittedly, there’s a selection bias in April data, and it applies mostly to young players. Since I’m comparing monthly data to full-year data for batting title and ERA qualifiers, I’m selecting from those players who hung around long enough to compile 502 plate appearances or 162 innings pitched. If you’re a young player who puts up a .298/.461/.596 batting line in April, as Joc Pederson did last April, you get to stick around to get your 502 plate appearances, even though 261 of your plate appearances occurred during July, August, and September, when you hit .170/.300/.284. On the other hand, if you bat .147/.284/.235 in April, as Rougned Odor did, you do get a chance to bat .352/.426/.639 in 124 plate appearances spread between May and June, but you get them in Round Rock instead of Arlington. So there’s a bias in this analysis in favor of players who perform well in April (giving them a chance to continue to play) compared to those who don’t (who may get shipped out). This shouldn’t have a big impact on the overall variability of April data, though, since the presence of early-season outperformers like Pederson who get full-time status on the strength of their April is canceled, to an extent, by early-season underperformers like Odor who don’t.

So is April more predictive than other months? Here’s a chart for batters, using OPS as the measure, comparing the correlation between batters’ full-year performance and that of each month.

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The best pitching performance of the season so far, as told in the best dozen or so pitches thrown.

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Trevor Story can't stop hitting home runs, Vince Velasquez nearly pulls off a no-hitter, and Bartolo Colon resurrects the panache of Willie Mays.

The Weekend Takeaway
Both the Padres and the Rockies had something to rejoice over in the 13-6 slugfest on Friday night. It’s been a long, long week in the NL West, especially for the Friars, who had managed to string together 30 scoreless innings to begin the season. Those 13 runs must've felt like an exorcism.


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A roundup of last-spring roster shuffling, starring all your favorites: Nate Freiman, Dan Straily, Erik Kratz, and more!

Acquired 1B-R Nate Freiman from the Braves for 1B/OF-R Tyler Moore [3/29]

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March 29, 2016 6:00 am

Winter Is Leaving

4

Dustin Palmateer

No, really: Preller Phase 2 starts this year, far from Petco.

You know the story about Billy Beane retreating into the bowels of the Coliseum to avoid actually watching his meticulously crafted team play baseball. Someday similar tales will circulate about A.J. Preller ducking Padres games, only Preller—the story will go—won’t be hiding on a stationary bike somewhere in Petco Park. Instead he’ll be 3,000 miles away on a scouting trip in the Dominican Republic, radar gun pointed in the general direction of a lanky 16-year-old pitcher.

Last year Preller may have looked away from the on-field proceedings for a different reason, as his vision for a winning team, which included bringing in veterans Matt Kemp, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, and Justin Upton, flopped spectacularly to register a Padres-like 74 wins. If there’s a silver lining to the ultimate disappointment of another 70-something win season—that’s five straight and six in seven years, for those counting—it’s that the Padres have quietly set themselves up for a big year on the amateur side in 2016.

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What the past says about the futures of three once-bright stars.

About 13 months ago, I wrote a piece for Banished to the Pen examining the brutal 2014 seasons of three previously promising young hitters (Arismendy Alcantara, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Wil Myers) and the implications of those campaigns on those players’ futures. The concept was a rough, statistical sketch of the players’ likely career arcs, without relying either on scouting information or the general narrative.

The piece seems to have mostly pegged Alcantara and Myers correctly. You can read the piece itself to see exactly what I found, but the gist for Alcantara was that the odds were stacked against long-term success for him because of his excessive strikeout rate, and indeed, that shortcoming crippled him in 2015, even after his demotion to Triple-A Iowa. Myers, meanwhile, managed a .288 TAv and 114 OPS+ when he was healthy—numbers that hew eerily closely to those of the people I found who compared closely to him through 2014.

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The plan of lost season has given way to something San Diego fans are used to: Mixed messages and a lack of direction.

As fans and analysts, we like it when a team has an easily identifiable plan we can follow along with, whether it's rebuilding for a better future or pressing the proverbial all-in button. There's a certain level of solidarity between team and fan (or team and analyst) when both sides are on the same page, allowing us to scroll through the transaction log and nod our collective heads—even if we disagree with a specific move or, in more extreme cases, the entire plan, we at least give the team a certain benefit of the doubt for formulating a course of action and sticking with it.

So when Chris Long tweeted this

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The Padres get at least something for their shortstop woes, while the Pirates reup Chris Stewart.

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The Padres and Ian Desmond fit nicely together, while Bronson Arroyo has unfinished business in Cincinnati.

Padres at least keeping tabs on Ian Desmond
Ian Desmond played shortstop last year. The Padres’ projected starting shortstop is Alexi Amarista, producer of a .205 TAv in 357 plate appearances last season. Ian Desmond is available. Which also means that, despite the obviousness of the match, he’s not yet donning San Diego’s new (old) colors.


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How Derek Norris suddenly got good at defense.

With the year winding to a close, Baseball Prospectus is revisiting some of our favorite articles of the year. This was originally published on December 9, 2015.

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December 11, 2015 6:00 am

Transaction Analysis: The Ex-Prospects Challenge Trade

0

R.J. Anderson

San Diego and Atlanta swap disappointing still-young ex-studs.

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How Derek Norris suddenly got good at defense.

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