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Articles Tagged San Diego Padres 

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09-08

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5

Retro Transaction Analysis: Latos, Later
by
Bryan Grosnick

09-02

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6

In The Air Every Night
by
Daniel Rathman

08-02

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1

Transaction Analysis: Take My Contract, Please
by
Bryan Grosnick and Ben Carsley

07-30

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0

Transaction Analysis: Marlins Gonna Marlins
by
Adam McInturff, Dustin Palmateer, Steve Givarz, Jeff Quinton and Jeffrey Paternostro

07-27

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0

What You Need to Know: That Summertime Sadness
by
Nicolas Stellini

07-27

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0

Transaction Analysis: Blue Jays Add Rejuvenated Upton
by
Joshua Howsam, Adam McInturff and George Bissell

07-15

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10

Transaction Analysis: Red Sox Swing Big For Pomeranz
by
Ben Carsley and Christopher Crawford

07-09

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1

Raising Aces: Fastballs Are Secondary
by
Doug Thorburn

07-01

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1

Transaction Analysis: Rodney Takes His Quiver To Miami
by
Bryan Grosnick, Matthew Trueblood, Wilson Karaman and Christopher Crawford

06-18

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0

BP South Side
by
James Fegan

06-09

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1

What You Need to Know: Bad Braves Snap Pitiful Streak
by
Demetrius Bell

06-08

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5

Cold Takes: The Stolen Bases Stolen From Us
by
Patrick Dubuque

06-07

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2

Prospectus Feature: Do Pathetic, Embarrassing, Miserable Failures Breed Success?
by
Rob Mains

06-06

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0

Transaction Analysis: Small Trade James
by
James Fegan, Jeff Quinton, Christopher Crawford and Bryan Grosnick

06-03

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1

What You Need to Know: Don't Know What the Hurry Is
by
Nicolas Stellini

06-02

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9

Prospectus Feature: The Matt Bush Challenge
by
Trevor Strunk

06-01

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1

What You Need to Know: The Catcher Who Threw 96 In A Blowout
by
Emma Baccellieri

06-01

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2

Outta Left Field: The Only Rule Is It Has To Quirk
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-20

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1

Transaction Analysis: Nathan Trying To Be Famous Again
by
Bryan Grosnick

05-18

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4

Outta Left Field: The Physics Of Derek Norris Throwing From His Knees
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-06

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1

What You Need to Know: Yankees Find a New Way to Lose
by
Emma Baccellieri

04-29

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2

Prospectus Feature: Goodbye, April: You Are Not Special
by
Rob Mains

04-15

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17

Pebble Hunting: So I Guess This Is Vince Velasquez Now
by
Sam Miller

04-11

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0

What You Need to Know: The Fella's Last Name Is Story
by
Ashley Varela

03-30

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2

Transaction Analysis: Deep Cuts For The SuperFans
by
Bryan Grosnick

03-29

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4

Winter Is Leaving
by
Dustin Palmateer

02-11

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1

Rubbing Mud: Three Evolving Hitters
by
Matthew Trueblood

01-20

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4

Outta Left Field: This Is the Padre Way
by
Dustin Palmateer

01-15

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0

Transaction Analysis: San Diego's Short-Term Shortstop Solution
by
Matthew Trueblood

01-05

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6

Rumor Roundup: The Slow Burn Of Ian Desmond's Free Agency
by
Daniel Rathman

12-31

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3

Best of BP 2015: The Season's Craziest Second-Half Split
by
Dustin Palmateer

12-11

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0

Transaction Analysis: The Ex-Prospects Challenge Trade
by
R.J. Anderson

12-09

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14

Outta Left Field: The Season's Craziest Second-Half Split
by
Dustin Palmateer

10-29

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2

Outta Left Field: Preller's Problems
by
Dustin Palmateer

05-22

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6

West Coast By Us: Day 1: In The Land Where Everybody Is Immediately Put On TV
by
Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman

05-04

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1

The Call-Up: Austin Hedges
by
Christopher Crawford and J.P. Breen

04-20

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4

Tools of Ignorance: The San Diego Hedgehogs?
by
Jeff Quinton

04-10

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28

Rubbing Mud: Carlos Quentin's DFA is This Godforsaken Era in a Nutshell
by
Matthew Trueblood

04-06

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33

Transaction Analysis: The Last Blockbuster of the Offseason
by
Matthew Trueblood, Mark Anderson, Bret Sayre and Wilson Karaman

04-01

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1

Transaction Analysis: Spring Shuffling
by
R.J. Anderson

03-25

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4

Painting the Black: Getting Personal
by
R.J. Anderson

03-18

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4

Every Team's Moneyball: San Diego Padres: Payroll Tetris
by
Doug Thorburn

03-12

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Only Thing Left That Matters Is Cuban
by
Daniel Rathman

03-11

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4

Rumor Roundup: Olivera, Why Not Take Olivera?
by
Chris Mosch

03-02

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4

Rumor Roundup: You Can't Predict Padres
by
Daniel Rathman

02-27

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9

Prospectus Feature: A.J. Preller's Offseason and the Toronto Precedent
by
Steven Jacobson

02-25

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2

Rumor Roundup: Closer Closer to Closing Deal
by
Daniel Rathman

02-10

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19

Tools of Ignorance: How the Padres Won the Offseason
by
Jeff Quinton

02-10

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0

Rumor Roundup: Mysterious Blob Will Attempt To Eat Yoan Moncada Next
by
Daniel Rathman

02-10

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13

Transaction Analysis: Padres Have Big Aims, James
by
Russell A. Carleton and Wilson Karaman

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Preempting a bunch of Chicago Cubs hot takes.

As you may have heard, the Chicago Cubs started the season pretty well. As of the end of May, they were 35-15, playing exactly .700 ball. That projects to a 113-49 record over 162 games, which would be the most wins in a season since the Mariners won 116 in 2001, and the most in the National League since, well, since the Chicago Cubs won 116 in 1906.

But that wasn’t the only notable end-of-May record. The Twins and Braves were both 15-36, on pace for 48-114. The Reds, at 17-35, were on pace for 53-109. The 20-33 Padres projected to 61-101, raising the question of how Padres owner Ron Fowler would describe the Twins, Braves, or Reds. On the other hand, the 32-20 Red Sox were on pace to finish 100-62, the 33-21 Giants were on track for 99-63, the 32-21 Nationals on pace for 98-64, the 31-21 Rangers for 97-65, and the 30-21 Mariners for 95-67. So there were, at the end of May, four teams with a shot at 100 losses and six that could win 100.

As an aside, I am fully cognizant that “on pace for” is intellectually lazy and ignorant, unless it’s wielded cleverly by the likes of Jayson Stark or Cespedes Family Barbecue. (Especially the Cespedes Family Barbecue link. You should check it out. Go ahead, it won’t take long. I’ll still be here.) So no, I’m not implying that there actually will be four teams with 62 or fewer wins and six with 62 or fewer losses. I’m just setting the tone. Play along with me here.

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Chicago takes James Shields off San Diego's hands for a pair of prospects.

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Julio Urias gets hit again, Zack Greinke is basically back, and the Padres out-do themselves.

The Thursday Takeaway
Statistically, you’re unlikely to be a nuclear physicist. There are certainly some of you that are nuclear physicists, but almost assuredly, the average reader of this columnist is unlikely to currently be a nuclear physicist. It’s substantially more likely, however, that there are many physics majors reading this. Yet, of course, a physics major doesn’t make one a nuclear physicist.


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In a sport that fetishizes comebacks, it can be difficult to tell a return from a redemption.

I was following along, like maybe a lot of you, with the Matt Bush story the past few weeks. Bush likely needs no real intro to a committed baseball readership, but here’s the short version for context’s sake. Bush was drafted as a shortstop with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft by the San Diego Padres. He was bad at hitting—which led to his conversion to pitching—and bad at avoiding injury. Worse than either, though, were his problems with drugs, domestic violence, and DUI. He spent three years in prison.

Now, he’s with the Texas Rangers—the team most closely associated with another former first-overall draft pick/recovering substance abuser—and pitching in the major leagues for the first time ever. He’s throwing 98 miles an hour, he’s on a zero tolerance policy for drugs or booze, and he’s rapidly climbing the ladder in the Rangers’ bullpen. In short, Matt Bush has reinvented himself.

I’m taken in easily by stories like Bush’s, and that can be a problem. Bush’s anomalous transformation, his ability to become something different in order to succeed in what is a brutal game of failure, makes it tempting to forgive and (more problematically) forget his past sins. And while we all might have different opinions on the value of redemption or retribution, the fact is that we can’t really enjoy the rise of Matt Bush without asking ourselves some serious questions about our relationship to the actions that made him fall.

Bush’s sins aren’t of the Josh Hamilton variety, after all—there’s an easy link by way of substance abuse, and I’ll admit I’ve drawn it without thinking a few times. But Hamilton’s problems were self-destructive, limited for the most part to his own abuse of drugs and his fight to get over that. Bush hurt a lot of people on his way back to the majors, the most famous example of which was running over a man’s head while fleeing a hit-and-run DUI. (The man survived thanks to his wearing a helmet.) While this incident is what landed Bush in prison for a little over three years, he was also involved in the assault of a high school lacrosse player with a golf club (getting him released from the Padres) and he threw a baseball at a woman’s head (which got him kicked off the Blue Jays). In short, Matt Bush made his bed in a fairly dramatic and troubling way. He was awful.

But now he’s back, and it’s tempting to revel in the baseball return story. After all, the comeback is one of our most treasured genres as fans, and for good reason. These stories make us believe, however briefly, in our ability as people to beat the odds. I mentioned Hamilton above, and his story is likely one of the most inspiring in this way, as he kicked his drug habit and tasted some of the Mickey Mantle-esque appeal he had when being drafted first overall by the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays. And while Hamilton’s journey has been a little windy since then, the fact that he saw any success after flaming out for years in the minor leagues is remarkable. Baseball, as I’ve said before and I’ll say again, is powerfully unforgiving.

And so when we see most of the nameless first-round busts or snake-bitten injured phenoms go the way of our Brian Bullingtons and Mark Priors, we’re rightly amazed to see a happy ending. When Rich Hill can stick to the pursuit of baseball as long as he has, and then end up pitching beyond our wildest expectations at 36, that’s pretty cool. That’s a story we can tell our kids about all the great, warm fuzzy feelings baseball is classically supposed to give us: perseverance, self-confidence, belief. These guys beat the odds in a game that is literally already about beating long odds, and we remember and revere them for that.

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Bethancourt livens up a lousy day, the Cubs lose behind Arrieta, and Mookie gets... three homers.

The Tuesday Takeaway
James Shields added another chapter to a sadly long story of soul-crushing outings Tuesday—his fifth career game with 10 or more runs allowed, tying him for the most of any pitcher since 1940, as BP author Aaron Gleeman pointed out on Twitter. The first and second innings began by following the same pattern, with Shields getting two quick outs to start each one before falling apart as he let walks and singles pile up. At the end of the second, though, the pattern broke, as Kyle Seager introduced the first piece of power to the game with a three-run homer, and things only went downhill from there.


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There is no pitcher like Johnny Cueto, and he's danged good to boot.

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Joe Nathan finds a home for his comeback, Jimmy Parades' utility train arrives at a new stop, and the Padres trade cash to keep Blash.

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Derek Norris brings back the Santiago, with a surprising effect.

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The last-place Yankees continue to suffer, the Blue Jays offense breaks out, and Colin Rea hacks the feed for two hours.

The Thursday Takeaway
A game that stays scoreless into the 10th sounds like a textbook example of a pitchers’ duel. This presumption gets a bit weaker when the teams in question are the Orioles, who had not scored in 12 innings heading into Thursday, and the last-place Yankees, who have hardly been a model of offensive capability this year. Regardless, keeping the scoreboard empty into extras is a feat, and both Masahiro Tanaka and Kevin Gausman looked sharp yesterday—particularly Gausman, who held New York to three hits with no walks over eight innings.

In the four years since Gausman was drafted, he’s been seen (among other things and in no particular order) as: a top prospect, a question mark, a disappointment, a popular example of every question around the Orioles’ pitcher development, and a young man painfully familiar with the road between Baltimore and Norfolk. Right now, he’s a back-of-the-rotation starter, and on Thursday, he was a very good pitcher.


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What did we learn about various players and teams this month? Less than we'll learn in the next one.

Early season baseball is full of articles about “What we’ve learned so far” after a week, or two weeks, or a month of play. You can’t really blame the sportswriters and TV sports producers and podcast hosts who come up with these pieces. They have to talk about something, and there aren’t any pennant races or awards competitions to discuss in April.

As Russell Carleton has demonstrated, though, most measures of baseball performance take far longer than a week or three to stabilize. Drawing conclusions from a 10- or 20-game sample is akin to statistics problem sets involving drawing balls from an urn. A really, really big urn. With lots and lots of balls in it. When you draw a few balls from a really, really big urn with lots and lots of balls in it, you don’t get a good picture of what’s really in the urn.

But how useless are April statistics? Are they worse than those from other months? On one hand, last April Andrew McCutchen batted .194/.302/.333 and Jose Iglesias batted .377/.427/.536. Jon Lester had a 6.23 ERA while Ubaldo Jimenez’s was 1.59. Those weren't particularly durable figures. On the other hand Dallas Keuchel’s 0.73 April ERA and Josh Donaldson’s .319/.370/.549 April batting line were.

We can look at the relevance of April numbers by correlating them to players’ full-year figures, and comparing the correlation in April to that of May, June, July, August, and September. (Throughout this analysis, April includes a few days of March play in the relevant years, and September includes a few days of October games.) To do this, I selected batting title and ERA qualifiers from each of the past 10 seasons and compared their monthly results to their full-year results. I had a sample of 1,487 batter seasons with corresponding monthly data in about 87 percent of months and 850 pitcher seasons with corresponding monthly data in 86 percent of months.

Admittedly, there’s a selection bias in April data, and it applies mostly to young players. Since I’m comparing monthly data to full-year data for batting title and ERA qualifiers, I’m selecting from those players who hung around long enough to compile 502 plate appearances or 162 innings pitched. If you’re a young player who puts up a .298/.461/.596 batting line in April, as Joc Pederson did last April, you get to stick around to get your 502 plate appearances, even though 261 of your plate appearances occurred during July, August, and September, when you hit .170/.300/.284. On the other hand, if you bat .147/.284/.235 in April, as Rougned Odor did, you do get a chance to bat .352/.426/.639 in 124 plate appearances spread between May and June, but you get them in Round Rock instead of Arlington. So there’s a bias in this analysis in favor of players who perform well in April (giving them a chance to continue to play) compared to those who don’t (who may get shipped out). This shouldn’t have a big impact on the overall variability of April data, though, since the presence of early-season outperformers like Pederson who get full-time status on the strength of their April is canceled, to an extent, by early-season underperformers like Odor who don’t.

So is April more predictive than other months? Here’s a chart for batters, using OPS as the measure, comparing the correlation between batters’ full-year performance and that of each month.

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The best pitching performance of the season so far, as told in the best dozen or so pitches thrown.

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Trevor Story can't stop hitting home runs, Vince Velasquez nearly pulls off a no-hitter, and Bartolo Colon resurrects the panache of Willie Mays.

The Weekend Takeaway
Both the Padres and the Rockies had something to rejoice over in the 13-6 slugfest on Friday night. It’s been a long, long week in the NL West, especially for the Friars, who had managed to string together 30 scoreless innings to begin the season. Those 13 runs must've felt like an exorcism.


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