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Articles Tagged Sample Size 

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05-09

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5

Baseball Therapy: Should I Worry About My Favorite Pitcher?
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-24

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6

Baseball Therapy: It Happens Every May
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-16

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16

Baseball Therapy: It's a Small Sample Size After All
by
Russell A. Carleton

12-02

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19

Prospectus Hit and Run: Resetting the Standard
by
Jay Jaffe

11-08

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14

Baseball ProGUESTus: Getting Explicit with Sample Sizes
by
Matt Lentzner

10-26

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16

Spinning Yarn: Can We Predict Hot and Cold Zones for Hitters?
by
Mike Fast

09-24

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71

Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation
by
Mike Fast

06-01

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6

Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone, Part 2
by
Mike Fast

04-21

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5

Collateral Damage: The Concussion Discussion, Part II
by
Corey Dawkins and Marc Normandin

02-16

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59

Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone
by
Mike Fast

08-29

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2

Between The Numbers: The PITCHf/x Summit Quasi-Liveblog
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-28

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1

Ahead in the Count: Hometown Discounts
by
Matt Swartz

04-26

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4

Baseball Therapy: The Difference Between Night and Day
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-21

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6

Fantasy Beat: When Sample Size Matters
by
Marc Normandin

04-08

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2

Manufactured Runs: April is the Cruelest Month
by
Colin Wyers

01-22

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43

Under The Knife: Frickin' Laser Beams, Part 1
by
Will Carroll

08-05

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17

Changing Speeds: PECOTAs Wild Pitches
by
Ken Funck

07-23

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55

Changing Speeds: PECOTA's Strikeouts
by
Ken Funck

07-05

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14

Prospectus Idol Entry: Cartwright Interview Transcript
by
Brian Cartwright

02-12

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24

Future Shock: Royals Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-18

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0

Prospectus Today: It Doesn't Count
by
Joe Sheehan

03-13

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0

Prospectus Hit and Run: Running Afoul
by
Jay Jaffe

04-09

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0

Prospectus Today: Playing Games
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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0

Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

04-18

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0

Prospectus Today: Confirmation Bias
by
Joe Sheehan

03-03

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Part Four
by
Nate Silver

12-01

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0

Crooked Numbers: Plop Plop Fizz Fizz
by
James Click

09-13

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0

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Seven
by
Rany Jazayerli

08-04

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0

Crooked Numbers: Objects at Rest
by
James Click

06-24

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0

Prospectus Notebook: Friday Edition
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-10

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Florida Marlins, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
by
Derek Jacques

04-27

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Does Size Matter?
by
Nate Silver

04-21

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0

Crooked Numbers: April Fools
by
James Click

04-13

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0

Prospectus Triple Play: Florida Marlins, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates
by
Derek Jacques

03-07

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0

Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Feng-Shui
by
Erik Siegrist

03-03

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0

Crooked Numbers: The Morning After
by
James Click

02-24

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Crooked Numbers: More on the Lineup
by
James Click

02-21

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part I
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-20

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0

Baseball Prospectus Basics: Statistical Consistency
by
James Click

02-19

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0

Baseball Prospectus Basics: Measuring Offense
by
Dayn Perry

05-29

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0

Aim For The Head: Simulating Catcher's ERA
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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0

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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0

Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-21

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Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)
by
Keith Woolner

05-21

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0

Analyzing PAP (Part One)
by
Keith Woolner

04-18

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0

Sensible Revenue Sharing
by
Keith Woolner

07-18

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0

Doctoring The Numbers: The Burroughs Hypothesis
by
Rany Jazayerli

09-22

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0

From The Mailbag: Umpire Stolen Base Rates and Scott Sheldon
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-10

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0

Field General or Backstop?
by
Keith Woolner

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April 18, 2006 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Confirmation Bias

0

Joe Sheehan

Joe looks to April performance to see what we've learned so far (hint: the answer is "nothing").

Out in Oakland, the A's are off to an unimpressive 6-7 start, albeit one that has them tied for first in the AL West. They've allowed more than five runs a game, a figure that belies a stat line showing them to have the highest strikeout rate in the AL, a better than 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the fourth fewest home runs allowed in the league. That 5.26 ERA is going to fall, and when it does, the A's will get separation in the West on their way to a division title.

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March 3, 2006 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Part Four

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Nate Silver

Nate turns to PECOTA's analysis of young pitchers.

Starting Pitchers

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December 1, 2005 12:00 am

Crooked Numbers: Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

0

James Click

James takes a look at the crazy offseason market for relievers to see if there's anything we can learn about reliever consistency.

Putting aside the dollar values on these contracts for a moment, it's important to consider just how consistent and predictable reliever performances are. There are a multitude of factors that routinely influence reliever performance more than that of starting pitchers or batters; primarily those are small sample size and the prevailing usage patterns of modern bullpens. The sample size issue is obvious--most relievers top out around 60 or 70 innings, roughly 1/3 of a typical starting pitcher's innings--but the way modern bullpens are managed (bringing in relievers in the middle of innings, for example) often means that a reliever's performance, as measured by ERA, is as much a reflection of those pitching before and after him than his own contributions. Whereas starters often get to work into and out of their own jams, relievers don't have that luxury.

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September 13, 2005 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Seven

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Rany Jazayerli

Rany returns with a look at the value of high-school hitters drafted between 1984 and 1999.

Using the technique described in the last part of this draft series, here's a breakdown of draft pick value for college and high school players, separated into pitchers and regulars, from 1984 through 1999:

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August 4, 2005 12:00 am

Crooked Numbers: Objects at Rest

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James Click

James answers a reader question about the effect of consecutive games played on a team's W-L record.

Jumping right in today, reader Benjamin Lauderdale sent this question Will Carroll's way; he was kind enough to forward it to me:

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Which of Oakland's offseason trades is working out the best? How many former A's third basemen does it take to staff the hot corner in L.A.? Prospectus Notebook takes a look.

Read the full article...

The Marlins' defense has been historically good, the Yankees' defense has been historically bad, and the Pirates need to check out of the W Hotel.

  • Foiled Again: BP's Neil deMause called it first: The Marlins' latest bid for a taxpayer-funded stadium died an ugly death at the hands of the Florida State Senate last week. It's not a huge surprise or even a huge shame, except to the extent that ownership visits to Las Vegas, Portland, San Juan, Mexico City, and Kuala Lumpur might distract from a terrific season by South Florida's ballclub.
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    April 27, 2005 12:00 am

    Lies, Damned Lies: Does Size Matter?

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    Nate Silver

    An e-mail from Will Carroll causes Nate Silver to investigate the historical relationship between body type and performance.

    2005 PECOTA Forecast BA OBP SLG HR VORP Adam Dunn, Adam Dunn Size .270 .395 .562 35 42.4 Adam Dunn, David Eckstein Size .265 .387 .542 32 36.1 This might not seem like a huge difference, but keep in mind that height and weight are the only variables that we have changed. By being compared to folks like Dick Kokos and Art Shamsky instead of Fred McGriff and Jim Thome, Dunn loses about 25 points of OPS, or six runs off his VORP forecast. The differences become even more profound if we look out further into the future, as bigger, and presumably stronger players are more likely to have sustained peaks, and long major-league careers. Here is Dunn's five-year WARP forecast, before and after:

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    April 21, 2005 12:00 am

    Crooked Numbers: April Fools

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    James Click

    While April performances have to be regarded with a dose of skepticism, they shouldn't be dismissed entirely.

    As an exercise in restraint, here are the Best and Worst hitters on April 30, 2004 as ranked by MLVr (min 50 PAs in April and 300 on the year):

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    Take your seats in the Small Sample Size Theatre as we present a two-act play. Intermission? A trip through What Might Have Beenland...

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    March 7, 2005 12:00 am

    Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Feng-Shui

    0

    Erik Siegrist

    Taking park factors to the next level.

    But a player's home ballpark only applies to half their games. What about the other half? Road games never enter into the equation. Conventional wisdom says that a team's away games are fairly evenly distributed, and the aggregate impact of all those different road parks will even out.

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    March 3, 2005 12:00 am

    Crooked Numbers: The Morning After

    0

    James Click

    What effect do extra-inning games and doubleheaders have on teams? We give you the lowdown on baseball's version of overtime

    During the regular season, things are obviously different and it's clear that extra-inning games can be a drag on a team. Playing nine innings every day is hard enough, but throw in the occasional 13- or 14-inning affair and players can show signs of fatigue, particularly in the bullpen or behind the plate. Managers find themselves with fewer options than normal the next day because players are still tired from the previous day. Doubleheaders have similar effects on clubs. Free baseball is great for the fans, but it can be rough on their team.

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