Jose Guillen is Surging – Why? As anyone who's played fantasy realizes, a huge part of winning is not only knowing how much players are going to produce, but also how highly valued they might be by others. I own Jose Guillen on my ill-fated FP911 Expert League team. Here's the latest writeup, for people in need of a laugh – “I wasn't prepared, so I drafted Gerald Laird”... that rhyme more-or-less summarizes my season, though I did avoid picking up MarinersMilton Bradley, Chone Figgins, Ian Snell, et al - not that anyone could have predicted their declines in 2010. But, honestly, I hadn't paid much attention to Guillen as a potential Value Pick. So, I was surprised to see that he's still owned in about 50% of leagues, even in the shallower formats available. Sure, before 2010, his Weighted-means PECOTA came out at a useful .285/.333/.464 rate, despite playing in KC. And he's theoretically moving to the easier league. But consider his rate stats by year:
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With two more players down to injury, the Detroit Tigers have some openings to fill that may be of interest to your fantasy roster.
The loss of Magglio Ordonez hurts. After all, there are just a handful of American League outfielders with TAv’s north of .300 this year - Ordonez has a .304 TAv. Couple that with the loss of Carlos Guillen, on the DL for the second time this season (.271 TAv in 246 plate appearances) and last week’s injury to Brandon Inge and there are a batch of new players angling for time in Detroit that are new to the fantasy radar.
To fill the holes created by the injuries, the Tigers recalled middle infielder Will Rhymes and first baseman/designated hitter Jeff Larish from Triple-A Toledo. With so many injuries, they’ll certainly get their opportunities… However, the one player who stands to gain the most was already on the Tigers roster.
Lima Time as a standard for evaluation, reinforcing the Red Sox, the Tigers slip by an Inge, and more.
Using a pitcher's rate of SNLVAR, Kazmir's season has been a disaster of massive proportions, one that rates about 4.8 on the Keough scale, something that for the moment suits my purposes for describing starting pitcher inadequacy, using Matt Keough's appalling 1982 season as a baseline for starting pitcher-related terrors visited upon a team's unhappy fans over a full season. This isn't really especially fair of me, in that Keough doesn't hold the single-season low for a starter with 30 starts in a campaign, but 1982 was a horrifying disappointment, and the man was beaten with a regularity that made me think that he was the drum, and the entire American League was Keith Moon.
Perhaps it's another case of the Orioles being the Orioles, but they saw Garrett Atkins hit two doubles and drive in a baserunner last week—no, really, he did!—and figured he'd gotten this whole pesky hitting thing sorted out well enough to let him be while the organization does with Nolan Reimold what they'd already done with Luke Scott. So, Reimold's getting a crash course in first-base play while marking time with the Tides, this while Scott doesn't get employed at first base after all, leaving at-bats to be burned on Atkins until some new idea becomes fashionable. Meanwhile, they decided they had to had to had to have a second lefty in the pen with the decision to spot utility pitcher Mark Hendrickson for David Hernandez on Sunday, which turned out about as well as you could hope in terms of Hendrickson's performance (three runs allowed in five innings). Meanwhile, Dave Trembley's managed to leave a number of roster spots idling—Jason Berken hasn't pitched in a week, and Lou Montanez hasn't played in almost two weeks—but if Hernandez isn't able to make his next turn on Friday, you can hope that they might at least make a retroactive move and reclaim at least that slot and apply it to some useful purpose, unless they want to just start listing certain players' positions as “witness,” given what little else they're being asked to do.
Apparently not destiny, meaning we get another post-season with quality time in their dome home.
Sometimes, being both a fan and an analyst creates a conflict. For me, that has usually centered around my desire to be a credible writer and my lifelong love affair with the New York Yankees. This played out on these pages all through last year, the final season of the old Yankee Stadium, in moments such as the All-Star Game, where I wanted badly to cheer Mariano Rivera but couldn't because I was in the role of professional in that moment.
Baseball games in late June should almost never be considered pivotal - especially interleague baseball games. Yet to the ever-anxious fans of Chicago's north side baseball team, circumstances conspired to make Thursday's match-up between their star-crossed Cubs and the streaking Detroit Tigers take on an air of unusual importance.
Nate finishes up his PECOTA-driven look at prospects with a few rankings, and some final thoughts.
Since the All-Star Game was first played in 1933, there have been 519 players who have been named to participate in the event at least three times. This constitutes a reasonable, if slightly arbitrary, definition of what we might consider to be a "star" performer; our apologies in advance to relatives of Tim Salmon and Bobby Abreu. If we divide that 519 figure by the number of seasons covered during this time period (73), we come up with 7.1 players that "graduate" to star status per year. That is, if we took a typical amateur draft class, we'd expect--give or take--seven players from that draft class to develop into stars.