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Articles Tagged Run Differential 

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05-06

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5

Baseball Therapy: Is Oakland's Run Differential for Real?
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-18

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 44: Sizing Up the Giants' Starters/Rooting for Run Differential
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-05

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22

Sobsequy: The Postmodern Orioles
by
Adam Sobsey

09-04

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 34: Making Sense of the Orioles and MLB's Blackout Policy
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-27

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27

Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or Lucky?
by
Russell A. Carleton

05-24

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What You Need to Know: Thursday, May 24
by
Daniel Rathman

12-21

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36

Spinning Yarn: Hit-and-Run Success is No Accident
by
Mike Fast

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-26

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3

Divide and Conquer, NL West: Bochy Wins the Close Ones
by
Geoff Young

01-19

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41

Manufactured Runs: The Twilight of the Gods
by
Colin Wyers

09-23

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8

Prospectus Hit List: NL: Getting Sorted
by
Jay Jaffe

04-22

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6

Prospectus Hit List: Epic Flights and Epic Fights
by
Jay Jaffe

12-31

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155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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3

Prospectus Hit List: Season Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

07-26

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18

Checking the Numbers: Defining Declining Expectations
by
Eric Seidman

07-03

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24

Prospectus Hit List: Beating the Holiday Traffic
by
Jay Jaffe

05-29

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10

Prospectus Hit List: Going Places
by
Marc Normandin

05-08

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12

Prospectus Hit List: The Banny Man and the Manny Ban
by
Jay Jaffe

05-01

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12

Prospectus Hit List: Back to Earth
by
Jay Jaffe

09-18

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Underachievers
by
Jay Jaffe

09-12

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Top to Bottom
by
Jay Jaffe

08-28

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Prelude to the Great Unplugging
by
Jay Jaffe

06-27

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Prospectus Hit List: Further Adventures in Interleague Mayhem
by
Jay Jaffe

06-26

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0

Prospectus Today: Shopping Season
by
Joe Sheehan

06-21

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0

Can Of Corn: Grading A's
by
Dayn Perry

06-09

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Prospectus Today: Brave New Problems
by
Joe Sheehan

05-12

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0

Prospectus Today: Miracle in Miami?
by
Joe Sheehan

04-11

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Prospectus Hit List: Small-Sample Theater
by
Jay Jaffe

11-01

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Prospectus Hit and Run: Dis and Data
by
Jay Jaffe

10-12

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0

Playoff Prospectus: Indians versus Red Sox
by
Jay Jaffe

08-16

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Prospectus Today: The Snakes' Progress
by
Joe Sheehan

07-20

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0

Prospectus Today: Upstairs Downstairs Out West
by
Joe Sheehan

07-13

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Friday the 13th Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

07-06

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Prospectus Hit List: Pinch-Hitter's Edition
by
Marc Normandin

06-22

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Prospectus Hit List: Hurting Hurlers
by
Jay Jaffe

06-15

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Prospectus Hit List: June Swoons and Happier Tunes
by
Jay Jaffe

05-31

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Look Sharp
by
Nate Silver

05-17

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Organized Common Sense
by
Dan Fox

05-04

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0

Prospectus Hit List: One Month Down
by
Jay Jaffe

03-08

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Schrodinger's Bat: Using Your Leverage
by
Dan Fox

12-19

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Prospectus Today: Looking Back
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

07-25

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Prospectus Hit List: July 25
by
Marc Normandin

07-18

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Prospectus Hit List
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Week of July 9
by
Jay Jaffe

06-21

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0

Prospectus Today: Best in the West
by
Joe Sheehan

06-16

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0

Prospectus Notebook: Royals, Twins
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-02

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Week of April 30
by
Jay Jaffe

04-06

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Wins and the Quantum
by
Dan Fox

02-03

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Prospectus Matchups: Windy City Revisited
by
Jim Baker

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Evaluating predictions for the season past, and closing the book on it.

Every year I try to project every team's record and runs scored and allowed, using as much information as is available to me in the waning days of March. I do it because it's fun, and because the process of making those predictions is very educational for me in the ramp-up to the season. The process, rather than the end results, is what is important, because the chance of getting many teams' overall records or run differentials correct is fairly slim. The value of the pieces I write at that time is in the analysis, the words; the numbers are for information purposes only.

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October 12, 2009 12:30 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Season Finale

3

Jay Jaffe

The final breakdown of who finished where in the 30-team ranking on the season that was.

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July 26, 2009 1:43 pm

Checking the Numbers: Defining Declining Expectations

18

Eric Seidman

Predicting Second-Half Performance from Pitchers Relies on Smart Tool Usage

Back in May, I implored fans and analysts to bypass treating discrepancies between a pitcher's ERA and FIP at various points throughout a season as the gospel, given that a more granular line of research-one that would not necessarily require an abundance of time-could provide more telling results. Even if the heavier, research-laden conclusion pointed to the same performance trends suggested by the differential, the investigative process itself would be much more accurate. The subject of that particular discussion was Matt Cain, who continues to be pegged as a candidate for a severe second-half regression based on an FIP over a run higher than his earned run rate. It is certainly plausible and frankly, it is downright likely, that Cain or pitchers of that ilk-Jair Jurrjens, for example-will see their ERAs worsen down the stretch based on many of their current marks falling right in line with those of years past.

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The Dodgers no longer rule the roost, but with four of the top five teams in the AL East, they're in tough company.

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May 29, 2009 2:00 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Going Places

10

Marc Normandin

By filling five of the top nine perches, the beasts of the Easts are riding high on this week's list.

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May 8, 2009 1:20 pm

Prospectus Hit List: The Banny Man and the Manny Ban

12

Jay Jaffe

Some reshuffling's to be expected, but the Jays ride high while the Dodgers have nowhere to go but down.

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May 1, 2009 1:02 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Back to Earth

12

Jay Jaffe

The leaders start coming back to the pack, while the Washington/Baltimore corridor gets acquainted with special ignominy.

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September 18, 2008 12:08 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Underachievers

10

Jay Jaffe

Teams who truly let themselves down, plus those happy few who did so but nevertheless made it into the postseason.

It lacked the fanfare of a division-clinching victory, or the exuberance of Francisco Rodrigurez's record-setting 58th save, but around the time that the Angels popped the champagne corks last week, they surpassed another record. Roughly two weeks since I pointed out their impending date with history, they inched past the 2004 Yankees' all-time mark of 12.7 wins above their third-order Pythagenpat projection—that is, their projected won-loss record after adjusting for run elements, park, league, and quality of competition. Since then, they've just kept going; through Wednesday, the Halos held a 92-59 record, the best in the major leagues despite their having outscored their opponents by just 63 runs. After adjusting for everything under the sun to get a truer bead on the quality of their offense, the Adjusted Standings show them as 14.2 games above their third-order projection of 77.8-73.2. While it's possible they could backslide a bit before the season ends, right now they have a solid claim as the most overachieving club of all time.

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September 12, 2008 1:00 pm

Prospectus Hit List: Top to Bottom

0

Jay Jaffe

Fortunes rising, fortunes falling, and the Nationals ascend as the Pirates slide into the abyss.

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August 28, 2008 12:58 pm

Prospectus Hit and Run: Prelude to the Great Unplugging

0

Jay Jaffe

A grab bag of loose ends, including BoSox rookie arms, the Chicago-Minnesota Gap, and some not so Giant prospects.

Just about every year around this time, I go through what I've come to refer to as the Great Unplugging. For a few days, I escape the grid and all of my gadgets and head off into the Wind Rivers mountain range in Wyoming to backpack with my father. No phone, no iPod, no internet, no baseball scores, and no Baseball Prospectus columns. Hell, no plumbing or electricity either while we're at it, just a camera to take some photos and a flashlight to read a book by at night. It's a great way to recharge my mental batteries while spending some quality time with my dad-whose boundless energy even at age 67 still puts me to shame-and I look forward to it every year.

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June 27, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Hit List: Further Adventures in Interleague Mayhem

0

Jay Jaffe

Teams continue to chase the Red Sox and Cubs as we start to see who might be buying, and who might be selling.

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With buyers once again outnumbering sellers, who should be looking to pull off a deal in the next five weeks to help their bids for contention?

In yesterday's column, I wrote something pretty dumb:

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