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12-19

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1

Rumor Roundup: Kenta Maeda Will Not Be Appearing In This Feature (Beyond Today)
by
Daniel Rathman

12-16

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1

Rumor Roundup: It's Hard To Make Dan Haren Happy
by
Daniel Rathman

12-15

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0

Rumor Roundup: The Slugging Korean Shortstop, Or Perhaps Non-Slugging Third Baseman
by
Daniel Rathman

12-15

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9

Prospectus Feature: The Surprising Math Teams Use to Value a Compensation Pick
by
Jeff Quinton

12-12

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1

Rumor Roundup: Remember James Shields?
by
Daniel Rathman

12-11

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4

Rumor Roundup: Yoenis Cespedes Is Always Good, Fit
by
Daniel Rathman

12-10

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1

Rumor Roundup: A Dayton Moore-Atlanta Connection?
by
Daniel Rathman

12-09

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5

Transaction Analysis: Moss Gathered
by
R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

12-08

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5

Rumor Roundup: Interested Teams Are Way In On Chen
by
Daniel Rathman

12-04

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19

Pitching Backward: Best. Reliever Season. Ever.
by
Jeff Long

12-04

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7

Rumor Roundup: The Inevitability of the Dodgers
by
Chris Mosch

12-03

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4

Rumor Roundup: The Fourth Year Is Always The Hardest
by
Chris Mosch

12-02

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15

An Agent's Take: Advice For The Teenaged Rumors Reporters
by
Joshua Kusnick

12-02

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4

Rumor Roundup: Lester's New Home Won't Be His New Home
by
Daniel Rathman

12-01

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1

Rumor Roundup: A Shark in Sox?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-26

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0

Rumor Roundup: The Ace Chase, the Rays' Face, and Some Chase Waste
by
Chris Mosch

11-25

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3

Rumor Roundup: Revenge is a Dish Best Served Immediately
by
Daniel Rathman

11-24

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3

Rumor Roundup: If Step One Is Making Betances Closer, What's Step Two?
by
Daniel Rathman

11-20

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3

Rumor Roundup: The Ideas That Dayton Moore Toys With
by
Chris Mosch

12-04

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 341: Hot Stovepocalypse
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

12-03

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0

Rumor Roundup: Re-Upping Ramirez
by
Daniel Rathman

11-27

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0

The Lineup Card: 8 Unfulfilled Rumors From Last Year's Hot Stove
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-12

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15

Overthinking It: Picking an Appropriate Cardinals Shortstop
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-08

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1

Rumor Roundup: Backup Planning
by
Daniel Rathman

11-04

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2

Rumor Roundup: Restarting the Rumor Mill
by
Daniel Rathman

09-03

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 278: Chris Cotillo on Breaking Trades Before Finishing High School
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-20

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0

Daily Roundup: Around the League: July 20, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-24

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5

Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 24, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-11

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6

Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 11, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-10

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4

Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 10, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-09

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Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 9, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

04-08

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3

Daily Roundup: Around the League: April 8, 2013
by
Clint Chisam

03-31

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1

Daily Roundup: Around the League: March 31, 2013
by
Clint Chisam and Joe Hamrahi

01-16

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6

Pebble Hunting: The Month for Drawing Interest
by
Sam Miller

12-07

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13

Pebble Hunting: Hottest Rumors From Baseball's Winter Meetings in Nashville!
by
Sam Miller

12-04

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 94: The Perplexing Trade Value of R.A. Dickey and Billy Butler
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

11-28

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8

Rumor Roundup: Wednesday, November 28
by
Daniel Rathman

11-20

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6

Overthinking It: Why Justin Upton is Always About to Be Traded
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-08

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 79: Are Teams Becoming More Willing to Trade Their Young Players?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-16

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 22: Why BP Didn't Break the Melky Cabrera Suspension
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-01

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9

Transaction Analysis: Trade Deadline Non-Transaction Analysis
by
Colin Wyers

07-26

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11

BP Unfiltered: The Best Trade Rumor Yet
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-25

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 6: Doorbell
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

12-23

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1

BP Unfiltered: MLBTR App Review
by
Chase Gharrity

12-14

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0

Winter Meetings Diary
by
Baseball Prospectus

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Also, Nori Aoki is wandering around with no clear direction or intent; the Rockies want pitching, if you can imagine; and the Red Sox are willing to give up Allen Craig, if you can imagine.

At least three teams still vying for Norichika Aoki
While other lower-tier free agent outfielders, like Nick Markakis and Alex Rios, have already come off the board, Aoki remains available, with multiple clubs hoping to bring him in. CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman says the Mariners, Orioles, and Reds are “among possibilities” for the left-handed hitter entering his fourth year in the United States.


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December 16, 2014 3:36 am

Rumor Roundup: It's Hard To Make Dan Haren Happy

1

Daniel Rathman

The Marlins might try to flip Dan Haren, but options are limited. Also, the Cubs aren't interested in Colby Rasmus, and Brad Penny is mentioned.

Marlins might flip Dan Haren
When Haren signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Dodgers on November 25th, 2013, he made it clear that he only wanted to pitch in the Los Angeles area for the remainder of his major-league career. A player option worth $10 million vested when Haren reached 180 innings in 2014, giving him the right to stay with the Dodgers, which he (unsurprisingly) exercised before Halloween.


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Posting will begin soon for Jung-Ho Kang, Ian Desmond seems intent on testing free agency, and Mike Morse is mentioned for the Marlins.

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Why does the value a team places on a draft pick seem to change from situation to situation?

“The Yankees never made an offer to David Robertson; determined they’d rather sign Andrew Miller and get the draft pick [compensation] for Robertson.” – Buster Olney, via Twitter

All other factors equal, it is preferable to sign a free agent who is not attached to a qualifying offer than a free agent that is QO-attached. This is obvious. What is not obvious is by how much, or whether that “how much” is always constant from free agent to free agent for each team. First round pick protection, competitive window, payroll limit, state of one’s minor-league system, and upcoming draft class will all determine how each team costs (values) losing a draft pick. According to traditional financial, economic, whatever-you-want-to-call-it theory, weighing these factors all makes sense. But, according to traditional theory, each team would individually weigh the cost of giving up a draft pick equally across all QO-attached free agents. Example time:

Team X puts the cost of losing its first round pick at $8M. Absent the qualifying offer, Team X values Max Scherzer at six years, $150M and Ervin Santana at two years, $25M. Taking the cost of losing a first round pick into account, Team X should value Scherzer at 6 years, $142M and Santana at 2 years, $17M.

Cool, makes sense. Alas, mental accounting, which posits that “people spontaneously generate their own mental accounts, and where we place these boundaries subtly (but profoundly) influences financial decision making,” indicates that our traditional theories may be oversimplifying things here. Specifically, it notes that we create topical accounts, in that our decisions are altered by the context of the situation. Whereas most think it absurd to drive 15 minutes down the road to another car dealership to save $75 on a $25,000 car, many will stand in line for an hour in the middle of the night to save that same $75 on a $250 smart phone.

Question: What does this have to do with QO-attached free agents?

Answer: Given the use of topical accounts, we could hypothesize that if GMs categorize Scherzer as an impact player and Santana as a role player—and are less willing to give up a draft pick to get a mere role player—that teams might be either (i) undervaluing the cost of the QO when valuing top free agents (saving $75 on the car) and (ii) overvaluing the cost of the QO when valuing lower-end free agents (saving $75 on the smart phone).

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December 12, 2014 9:57 am

Rumor Roundup: Remember James Shields?

1

Daniel Rathman

Shields market might start getting busier, while Melky and the Mariners remain 730 days apart.

The Winter Meetings lit up the hot stove and kept it aflame, and it’s not even nearly out of fuel yet…

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December 11, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Yoenis Cespedes Is Always Good, Fit

4

Daniel Rathman

The Orioles are interested in Cespedes, the Twins are interested in the first name that should probably come to your mind, and the Rule 5 draft's script is leaking.

Orioles might be a “good fit” for Yoenis Cespedes
Somewhere, a member of the Cespedes Family BBQ duo is jumping for joy. According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Orioles are interested in obtaining the Cuban outfielder from the Red Sox.


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December 10, 2014 5:59 am

Rumor Roundup: A Dayton Moore-Atlanta Connection?

1

Daniel Rathman

The Royals might be going after Upton, the A's might be going after somebody, and the Nationals are holding out for Odor.

Royals involved in various trade discussions
In the wake of his club’s march to the American League pennant, general manager Dayton Moore has been quiet in the first few weeks of the offseason. If reports from San Diego are any indication, however, that might soon change.


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December 9, 2014 12:01 am

Transaction Analysis: Moss Gathered

5

R.J. Anderson, Craig Goldstein and Mauricio Rubio

Yet another AL team plucks a middle-of-the-order hitter from Oakland.

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December 8, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: Interested Teams Are Way In On Chen

5

Daniel Rathman

Dan Duquette's been fielding unsolicited calls for his reliable no. 3, while the Diamondbacks owners reportedly nixed a done deal.

Widespread interest in Wei-Yin Chen
With Kevin Gausman still yet to endure a full season of major-league work and Ubaldo Jimenez’ role uncertain, the Orioles aren’t exactly swimming in rotation depth. But that’s not stopping other teams from phoning Dan Duquette about one of his starters.


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December 4, 2014 6:00 am

Pitching Backward: Best. Reliever Season. Ever.

19

Jeff Long

Or, at least, in the past 25 years.

Relievers are endlessly fascinating to me, which is good because our fearless leader also has some sort of affinity for them as well. In the past two months I’ve talked about Andrew Miller’s emergence as a relief ace, discussed how awesome Jeremy Affeldt secretly is, critiqued the bullpen management of a few managers, and shown why critiquing them isn’t really fair after all. We can add this post to my growing list of bullpen reflection pieces, though this one has a much larger focus than any of the previous pieces.

The question posed by, and hopefully answered in, this post is which relief pitcher had the best single season in recent history. The first hurdle to all of this is figuring out the best way to measure reliever performance. In the past I’ve hung my hat on either WPA (especially for closers) or RE24, because they capture the unique responsibilities of relief pitchers better than something like ERA or WARP.

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December 4, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: The Inevitability of the Dodgers

7

Chris Mosch

Los Angeles gets in on the Lester chase, while Andrew Miller has plenty of (non-Dodger) pursuers.

The bidding for Jon Lester has picked up over the last few weeks, with the Red Sox and Cubs offering the prized left-hander upwards of $130 million over six years and the Giants also reportedly in hard pursuit after losing out on Pablo Sandoval.

But a late entrant for Lester’s services emerged Wednesday night. According to Rob Bradford and Alex Speier of WEEI.com, the Dodgers are the latest club to show serious interest in Lester. Multiple sources told the Boston site that the Dodgers are expected to make a hard push for Lester with one source suggesting that he “would be ‘shocked’ if the Dodgers don’t end up being the high bid in the Lester sweepstakes.”

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December 3, 2014 6:00 am

Rumor Roundup: The Fourth Year Is Always The Hardest

4

Chris Mosch

Could Nick Markakis' contract demands end his time in Baltimore? Meanwhile, the Rockies might be shopping their young starting catcher.

Interest in Markakis growing outside of Baltimore

Earlier this offseason it seemed inevitable that Nick Markakis would re-sign with Baltimore. The 31-year-old right fielder has provided the Orioles consistent production throughout his previous contract, is seen as a fan favorite and is currently the team’s longest tenured player. Even though the Orioles declined their side of a $17.5 million mutual option last month, the two sides were said to be deep in negotiations over a four-year deal estimated to pay Markakis about $10 million-$12 million annually.

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