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03-18

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14

Baseball Therapy: You Gotta Keep 'Em Separated
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-15

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10

Pitcher Profile: Milwaukee's Rotation Brew
by
Harry Pavlidis

12-21

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 107: Edwin Jackson, the Cubs, and Qualifying Offers
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-29

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29

Overthinking It: What Stephen Strasburg's Season Could Have Looked Like
by
Ben Lindbergh

08-01

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 11: Train Crossing
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-26

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2

Value Picks: Starting Pitchers for 7/26/12
by
Paul Sporer

04-21

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3

Overthinking It: Washington's Gas Policy
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-29

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12

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

02-22

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28

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Derek Carty and Michael Jong

02-20

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19

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

01-24

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9

Prospectus Hit and Run: Winter of Discontent?
by
Jay Jaffe

11-23

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16

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Bear a Starter's Fruit: The Three Acts of Feliz
by
Jason Parks

10-10

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6

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Arizona Diamondbacks
by
Ben Lindbergh, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

07-14

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20

Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 2
by
R.J. Anderson

07-05

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4

Painting the Black: Six-Man Mania
by
R.J. Anderson

03-28

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18

Prospectus Hit List: AL Pre-Season Hit List
by
Tommy Bennett

03-28

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21

Prospectus Hit List: NL Pre-Season Hit List
by
Jay Jaffe

03-15

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7

Overthinking It: Small Samplings of Spring, AL Edition
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-18

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7

Transaction Analysis: Trading Gorzo the Magnificent
by
Christina Kahrl

01-17

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10

Transaction Analysis: Royal Re-Gearing
by
Christina Kahrl

01-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Questionable Pursuit of Garza
by
Eric Seidman

12-31

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0

On the Beat: A Bird of a New Feather
by
John Perrotto

12-15

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35

Checking the Numbers: Ranking R2C2
by
Eric Seidman

11-24

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32

GM for a Day: New York Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

10-06

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46

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

08-27

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16

On the Beat: Building Something Special
by
John Perrotto

08-12

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4

Transaction Action: NL Central Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

07-30

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4

Fantasy Beat: Rotation Promotions
by
Bill Baer

07-21

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38

Transaction Action: ALtruisms
by
Christina Kahrl

07-16

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6

Transaction Action: Junior Circuit Jumble
by
Christina Kahrl

07-12

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6

Transaction Action: Shuffling Seniors
by
Christina Kahrl

07-02

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7

Transaction Action: Dealing and Decapitating
by
Christina Kahrl

06-28

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5

Transaction Action: Blast, or Blasted?
by
Christina Kahrl

06-11

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6

Transaction Action: Weekend Omnibus
by
Christina Kahrl

05-19

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20

Under The Knife: Wednesday Update
by
Will Carroll

05-06

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Dr. John Bagonzi
by
David Laurila

05-02

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6

Transaction Action: NL Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

04-04

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5

Transaction Action: Turn of the Screw, NL
by
Christina Kahrl

04-04

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9

Prospectus Hit List: NL Pre-Season Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

04-01

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37

BP Unfiltered: UPDATED NL Projected Opening Day Rosters
by
John Perrotto

04-01

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68

BP Unfiltered: UPDATED AL Projected Opening Day Rosters
by
John Perrotto

03-31

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3

Transaction Action: Turn of the Screw, AL
by
Christina Kahrl

03-30

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30

Expanded Horizons: AL Central Battle Royale
by
Tommy Bennett

03-26

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8

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Starting Pitchers
by
Bill Baer

03-21

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13

Fantasy Focus: Depth Chart/PFM Update, Part 2
by
Clay Davenport

03-01

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10

Camp Battles: NL West
by
Christina Kahrl

02-17

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16

Camp Battles: AL Central
by
Christina Kahrl

02-04

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30

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3
by
Matt Swartz

10-15

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33

Playoff Prospectus: Dodgers vs. Phillies LCS
by
Jay Jaffe

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March 18, 2013 5:00 am

Baseball Therapy: You Gotta Keep 'Em Separated

14

Russell A. Carleton

Does separating starters of the same type in the same rotation make sense?

It's the time of year when managers start thinking about games that will actually count. Positional battles are heating up, because decisions need to be made. Opening Day starters are being named. Variations in lineups are being considered, for facing righties, lefties, and Pat Venditte. Your favorite team has spent the spring trying to decide between two players, both of whom are relative unknowns. Due to the 50/50/90 rule (when you have a 50/50 chance of getting something right by chance, you will get it wrong 90 percent of the time), they will pick the wrong utility infielder and the other guy will become a decent starter for some other team.

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A look at what the Brewers' rotation options offer from a stuff (and beer) perspective.

I like the old cliché, “You go as far as your starting pitching takes you.” It's best to have about seven to nine arms handy to get through the season, because pitchers often get hurt or fail to meet expectations.

Brewers fans may recall a recent season where they barely used six starters. Then, of course, there's last year, when they needed 11. Somewhere in between is normal. For the 2013 Brewers, the question is not if they will go deep into their rotation, but when. And as the summer nears, manager Ron Roenicke will be handing the ball to quite a few young arms.

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Ben and Sam discuss Edwin Jackson and the rest of the Cubs' offseason signings and talk about how the specter of draft-pick compensation is affecting some free agents.



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If the Nationals had handled their ace's innings limit a little more like the Braves massaged Kris Medlen's, they might not be facing a Strasless October.

WARNING: Here there be hindsight.

We can’t say Mike Rizzo didn’t warn us. “There’s not going to be a whole lot of tinkering done,” he said. “We’re going to run him out there until his innings are done.” That was on February 20th, the earliest reference by Rizzo I can find to any specific plan for limiting Stephen Strasburg’s workload. We knew then that the Nats weren’t going to get creative: they were going to pitch Strasburg like any other starter until he was fresh out of innings. What we didn’t know then (and what we still don’t really know now), is when that would be. For months, everyone assumed Strasburg would go into storage after 160 innings. Why 160? As far as I can tell, the 160 meme began innocently enough, with this sentence from an mlb.com article by Bill Ladson on February 19th: “He is expected to throw 160 innings, the same number his teammate Jordan Zimmermann threw last year after coming off elbow reconstruction.” Expected by whom? The article didn’t say. Certainly not by the Nationals. But before long, 160 was ubiquitous, and usually attributed to the team. By the time Rizzo denied the number had come from him in an article at BP in April, it was already accepted as fact.

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Ben and Sam reevaluate the NL West after the deadline and take stock of this season's converted starters.

Effectively Wild Episode 11: "Train Crossing"

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July 26, 2012 5:00 am

Value Picks: Starting Pitchers for 7/26/12

2

Paul Sporer

Carlos Villanueva and Josh Collmenter highlight this week's Value Picks.

This time next week, the trade deadline will have passed and we could have some new roles opened up for guys. This week’s VP includes some speculation that could be wiped away by trades, so stay tuned.

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April 21, 2012 9:23 am

Overthinking It: Washington's Gas Policy

3

Ben Lindbergh

The Nationals rotation throws harder than any staff in baseball has over the past few seasons, and that just might win them the NL East.

The Washington Nationals haven’t hit very well this season: their .252 TAv ranks ninth in the National League. They haven’t run very well, either: they rank third from last in the big leagues in Baserunning Runs (-2.2). Nonetheless, the Nats have an 11-4 record, good for first place in the National League East and the third-best record in baseball, behind only the 11-2 Rangers and the 11-3 Dodgers. In a tight division like the NL East, a quick start can improve a team’s playoff odds significantly. The Nats’ chances of making the playoffs have risen from 7.9 percent before their first game to 19.2 percent today.

How have the Nats succeeded, if not by outslugging their opponents or regularly taking the extra base? The source of the team’s success has been defense and pitching—starting pitching, in particular. Before Edwin Jackson allowed five runs in five innings against the Astros on Thursday night, no Nats starter had allowed more than four runs in an outing. Through the team’s first 13 games, the starting rotation produced nine quality starts with a 1.65 ERA and a 2.20 RA, by far the best marks in baseball.

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February 29, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview

12

Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

The two Jasons dissect the pressing questions facing the Rangers, Angels, A's, and Mariners this season.

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 89-73
Team WARP: 45.7
Runs Scored: 719
Runs Allowed: 648​
Team FRAA: 37.6






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February 22, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview

28

Derek Carty and Michael Jong

Roundtable discussion of the pressing questions facing the NL East teams as we approach the start of the season

1) After a disappointing sophomore campaign, what can we expect of Jason Heyward going forward?
MJ:
Jason Heyward had an injury-riddled sophomore season in Atlanta, but there is a lot to like about his chances at a rebound campaign in 2012. His offensive line was deflated by a .260 BABIP, but his peripherals were once again stellar. His 11.6 percent walk rate represented a regression from 2010 but cannot be considered poor, and his .162 ISO likewise dropped from the previous year but did not experience a precipitous fall.


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February 20, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview

19

R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

Roundtable discussion of the most pressing issues facing each AL East team entering Spring Training

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4







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January 24, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Winter of Discontent?

9

Jay Jaffe

While fans may be fretting in Boston, nobody should be hasty in evaluating the job GM Ben Cherington has done in shoring up the Sox.

The 2012 Red Sox are a work in progress, Ben Cherington's unfinished symphony. When I set out to write this article, it was from the vantage point of looking back at the weekend's head-scratching swap, which sent shortstop Marco Scutaro to the Rockies for sinkerballer Clayton Mortensen. In isolation, it was a dismal return for a player who's been worth 5.5 WARP over the past two seasons, but by dumping Scutaro's salary, the Sox created room to fill other needs. As if on cue, they agreed to a one-year deal with outfielder Cody Ross on Monday night, consigning this article's brilliant original lede* to the dustbin of history and serving as a reminder that very few ballclubs are expected to win games in the dead of January.

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The Rangers' recent signing of Joe Nathan ensures that Neftali Feliz will get a legit shot at the rotation, but will he be able to succeed?

On the evening of October 27, 2011, flame-throwing closer Neftali Feliz was one pitch away from lighting the fuse on an explosive World Series celebration. The Texas franchise had never tasted the sweet substance of the ultimate reward, and after nearly 40 years of play, they were only seconds away from the pinnacle experience offered by the sport. The Rangers were going to be world champions.

We all know what happened to Feliz and the Rangers in Game Six, and we all know what happened in the deciding Game Seven, played the following evening. The Cardinals became world champions, and the Rangers were sent back to the drawing board. As of this writing, the Rangers have put pencil to paper on their first off-season sketch, signing free-agent closer Joe Nathan to a two-year deal (with an option for third year). The signing reinforces the speculation that Texas intends to convert Feliz back into a starter. Cue the Whitesnake and let’s take it from the top.

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