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09-15

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1

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Out-of-Nowhere Power-Hitting Rookie
by
Matt Collins

05-31

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5

The Buyer's Guide: Dinelson Lamet
by
Tim Finnegan

05-17

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0

The Call-Up: Bradley Zimmer
by
Erich Rothmann and George Bissell

04-13

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10

The Stash List: 2017 Second Edition
by
Greg Wellemeyer

03-15

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5

Five to Watch: American League Rookies
by
Wilson Karaman

08-31

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8

In A Pickle: Rookie of the Year Fun Facts
by
Jason Wojciechowski

06-19

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5

BP Unfiltered: Zack Wheeler and First-Start Jitters
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-23

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 209: Veterans vs. Young Players/The Dodgers and Grit
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

09-28

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 52: Oakland's All-Rookie Rotation/Baseball's Ever-Rising Strikeout Rate
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-19

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5

BP Unfiltered: The Two Teams Without Any Rookies
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-08

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8

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Rookie Effect
by
Brian Mills

08-19

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17

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation
by
Ken Funck

06-10

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4

Overthinking It: Neither a Berroa Nor a [Ver]lander Be
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-01

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0

Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL West
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-26

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL East
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-25

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-20

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, AL East
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-19

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Future Shock: State of the Systems: AL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

12-07

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Fantasy Beat: Winter Meetings Wrapup
by
Marc Normandin

03-28

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0

Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL West
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-22

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL East
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-21

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, NL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-15

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, AL West
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-14

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, AL East
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-09

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Future Shock: State of the Systems, AL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

09-15

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Future Shock: Short Term Impact, NL
by
Kevin Goldstein

09-14

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Future Shock: Short-Term Impact, AL
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-09

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Future Shock: State of the Systems: NL East
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-08

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Future Shock: State of the Systems: NL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-28

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Impact Rookies
by
Jeff Bower

07-15

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Individual Ballots
by
Baseball Prospectus

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September 15, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Other Out-of-Nowhere Power-Hitting Rookie

1

Matt Collins

Like Rhys Hoskins, Oakland's Matt Olson has surprised with his huge, huge power.

In both fantasy circles and real-life baseball circles, there is one rookie who is taking the league by storm. He has always been a decently regarded prospect, and the fact that he could hit for power has never really been a secret among those who followed minor-league baseball. On the other hand, he was never quite an elite prospect and absolutely nobody expected him to be a superstar, particularly not from Day 1. That’s what he’s doing, though, and he’s hitting home runs at a startling rate. It deserves your attention. No, I’m not talking about Rhys Hoskins. I’m talking about Matt Olson.

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May 31, 2017 10:45 am

The Buyer's Guide: Dinelson Lamet

5

Tim Finnegan

Dinelson Lamet might be gold! Always buy gold!

The Good

Through two starts in the big leagues, Padres right-hander Dinelson Lamet is opening some eyes. On Tuesday night against the Cubs, Lamet generated an outstanding 17 swinging strikes over 93 pitches, including 10 with his slider. Lamet has generated 28 swinging strikes through 184 pitches in his two starts, a 15.2 percent rate, which is well above the major-league average of 9.6 percent for starting pitchers. He has struck out 16 of the 42 batters he has faced, a 38 percent rate, also well above the major-league average of 20.3 percent for starting pitchers. He’s kept free passes under control, walking three of the 42 batters he’s faced, a 7.1 percent rate, slightly better than the league average of 8.3 percent.

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May 17, 2017 6:00 am

The Call-Up: Bradley Zimmer

0

Erich Rothmann and George Bissell

A top prospect, Zimmer has a power-speed combo that has become increasingly rare in fantasy, and because of Cleveland's injury troubles in the outfield, is getting a chance to contribute now. What can we expect?

The Situation: The Indians outfield is in dire need of help due to the injuries to Abraham Almonte, Brandon Guyer and Austin Jackson. Also, while Michael Brantley has hit fairly well so far, his playing time is being managed cautiously given his recent injury history. They have addressed this situation by calling up Zimmer, one of their top prospects (No. 3 in our 2017 Indians organizational ranking).

Background: Cleveland selected Zimmer 21st overall in the 2014 amateur draft, and the start of his first full pro season could not have gone much better. After he slashed .308/.403/.493, hit 10 homers, and stole 32 bases in 335 plate appearances for High-A Lynchburg, he was named to the Carolina League All-Star team and participated in the Futures Game. However, he struggled with Double-A Akron in the second half of the season, in large part because he tried to play with a hairline fracture in his right foot. The 24-year-old’s stock fell in 2016 after striking out 115 times in just 407 plate appearances with Akron, and 56 times in 150 plate appearances for Triple-A Columbus. Zimmer got off to a better start with Columbus before his promotion, as he slashed .294/.371/.532, along with five homers, nine stolen bases, and “only” 43 strikeouts through 144 plate appearances.

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April 13, 2017 6:00 am

The Stash List: 2017 Second Edition

10

Greg Wellemeyer

Little has changed so far, but we do have data from early season samples to examine.

With the minor-league season just a week old and the major-league version not much more seasoned than that, there isn’t a whole lot of upheaval since last week’s list. Injuries, promotions, poor performance, and wild speculation will stir it up soon, don’t you worry.

The Graduates: None.

The Dropouts: Collin McHugh (5), Pedro Alvarez (19), JaCoby Jones (23), Roman Quinn (25).

I was bullish on McHugh’s stashability last week, assuming he was a rehab turn or two away from rejoining Houston’s rotation and re-asserting his back-end fantasy value. He made it through just one inning in his first rehab start, and is now shut down for six weeks with an elbow injury. Few pitchers in baseball have thrown as many breakers as McHugh over the past three seasons, so this was probably bound to happen sooner or later. I’m not optimistic enough to leave him on the list as we wait a couple months for a return.

Jones has started six of the Tigers’ seven games, so doesn’t really fit the profile for this column seeing as how he has something close to a full-time opportunity. I like the power-speed potential, though his contact inability and down-the-order lineup position limit his fantasy ceiling.

1) Julio Urias (LHP)—Los Angeles Dodgers (Previous Rank: 1)

Urias made his 2017 debut for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Monday, allowing two runs in 3 2/3 innings, striking out five and walking four. More important than the results was his pitch count. Despite limited action this spring, Urias threw 79 pitches, and might be more stretched out than I originally anticipated. Physically ready or not, Dave Roberts suggested that “some time at the end of the month makes sense” for his arrival. I’ll take the over.

2) Yoan Moncada (2B)—Chicago White Sox (Previous Rank: 2)

I’m trying not to be swayed by the in-person looks I got at Moncada this week, but am having a hard time. He swatted a home run on Monday that sounded like he hit the ball with a telephone pole, and yesterday he thumped a pitch on the outer half off the top of the wall in the opposite-field gap. Oh, and those were from different sides of the plate. While I still have concerns about the strikeout rate that aren’t likely to be answered in the short term, Moncada is going to be very impactful very soon.

3) Jorge Soler (OF)—Kansas City Royals (Previous Rank: 3)

Soler swung a bat Sunday for the first time since injuring his oblique on Feb. 26 and could begin a rehab assignment next week. Paolo Orlando is off to a .125/.192/.125 start in his stead, which is to say that the job is still firmly Soler’s as soon as he can get back.

4) Michael Conforto (OF)—New York Mets (Previous Rank: 4)

This is what happens, Terry.

5) Joe Ross (RHP)—Washington Nationals (Previous Rank: Unranked)

An unintentional omission from last week’s list, Ross is at Triple-A Syracuse because the Nats don’t need a fifth starter until April 22. Ross was beaten up a bit in his first start for the Chiefs, but I don’t think his major-league rotation spot is in any jeopardy regardless of what happens while he’s on the farm.

6) Jose Berrios (RHP)—Minnesota Twins (Previous Rank: 6)

7) Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)—Chicago White Sox (Previous Rank: 7)

Berrios surely can use his time in Rochester for refinement, but he has absolutely nothing left to prove at that level from a performance standpoint. After six shutout innings in his first appearance, Berrios now owns a 2.48 ERA and 215-to-51 K-to-BB ratio in 193 Triple-A innings. Adalberto Mejia, who won the last spot in the Twins’ rotation with a solid spring, couldn’t get out of the second inning in an ugly major league debut. Lopez’s run prevention and ability to pitch deep into games in the early going at Triple-A Charlotte leave much to be desired. His 15 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings does not.

8) Martin Prado (3B)—Miami Marlins (Previous Rank: 9)

9) Devin Mesoraco (C)—Cincinnati Reds (Previous Rank: 12)

10) Wilson Ramos (C)—Tampa Bay Rays (Previous Rank: 10)

11) Tom Murphy (C)—Colorado Rockies (Previous Rank: 11)

Injury update time. Prado was cleared to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday and began in High-A. The plan is for Prado to play four games and, barring a setback, he could return to Miami for full action next week. Mesoraco’s through four games of his rehab assignment at Double-A Pensacola but has yet to catch back-to-back contests. Playing time upon his return is unclear, but especially if you’re a Gary Sanchez or Buster Posey owner, Mesoraco is worth a stash because of his imminent activation and upside. Nothing to report on Ramos or Murphy.

12) Austin Meadows (OF)—Pittsburgh Pirates (Previous Rank: 13)

13) Bradley Zimmer (OF)—Cleveland Indians (Previous Rank: 16)

14) Blake Swihart (C) Boston Red Sox (Previous Rank: 15)

Small sample fun: Meadows has a .374 OPS, Zimmer has just four strikeouts in 27 at-bats, and Swihart has caught all give games in which he’s played. I expect one of these things to continue.

15) Lucas Giolito (RHP)—Chicago White Sox (Previous Rank: 7)

16) Jose De Leon (RHP)—Tampa Bay Rays (Previous Rank: 14)

I’m officially worried about Giolito. Reports from both spring training and his first outing at Triple-A Charlotte have his fastball in the low-90s. Mixed-league value is going to be hard to come by unless that changes, and the Pale Hose have no reason to push him to the big leagues in the meantime. I said last week that De Leon would need to return to action soon to hold on to his spot on the list, and there is no update to his injury status. Tick, tick, tick.

17) Archie Bradley (RHP)—Arizona Diamondbacks (Previous Rank: 21)

Last week I said that “10 of the seven outs Bradley recorded were by way of strikeout,” which is mathematically impossible, no matter how impressive Bradley was in his first appearance. He didn’t quite have the same swing-and-miss stuff in his second outing, but he did allow just one baserunner in two innings of work. I’d give him one more shot in the rotation if I were the Diamondbacks, but he could be plenty relevant if he becomes one of the next Andrews Miller we’ve heard so much about this spring. Because, you know, everyone has one of those just lying around waiting to be deployed optimally.

18) Cody Bellinger (1B)—Los Angeles Dodgers (Previous Week: Honorable Mention)

19) A.J. Reed (1B)—Houston Astros (Previous Rank: 17)

20) Joey Gallo (3B)—Texas Rangers (Previous Rank: 18)

21) Trey Mancini (1B)—Baltimore Orioles (Previous Rank: Unranked)

22) Dan Vogelbach (1B)—Seattle Mariners (Previous Rank: 20)

Leaving Bellinger off the proper list last week was a mistake, considering I included four inferior players with similarly ambiguous paths to regular time. He’ll have to really rake in Triple-A to force the Dodgers into giving him the call, much less installing him as an everyday, fantasy relevant player. Bellinger has the tools to do it though, bringing significant power if he can keep the strikeouts in check, with a bit of speed to boot. Mancini replaces Alvarez by virtue of playing the same position(s) and already being in the majors.

23) Franklin Barreto (SS)—Oakland Athletics (Previous Rank: Unranked)

24) J.P. Crawford (SS)—Philadelphia Phillies (Previous Rank: 22)

I still believe that Crawford arrives first, and that Barreto is more valuable in our game because of his speed and the security of his hit tool. He’s off to a blistering start at Triple-A Nashville, but I don’t see the A’s rushing him in a non-competitive season. Chad Pinder likely gets the first shot at playing time when Jed Lowrie gets hurt. I’m willing to hedge against that assumption with a spot at the bottom of the list. Crawford is off to whatever is the opposite of a blistering start.

25) Aaron Altherr (OF)—Philadelphia Phillies (Previous Rank: 24)

Playing time has been in short supply, but you have to figure the Phillies will see what they have with some of their controllable assets before too long. I still believe in the power-speed combo here, even if I’m nervous about its utility because of suspect contact ability.

Honorable Mention: Ozzie Albies, Jorge Alfaro, Tyler Beede, Carter Capps, Matt Duffy, Delino DeShields, Dilson Herrera, Ketel Marte, Francis Martes, Jesse Winker

I’d like to include someone from Texas’, and maybe Washington’s bullpen, I just don’t have any conviction about who it should be. Matt Bush and Koda Glover are my hunches, but neither is making an especially strong case just yet.

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March 15, 2016 6:00 am

Five to Watch: American League Rookies

5

Wilson Karaman

Notes on a handful of promising first-years who could hold fantasy value in 2016.

Yes, yes, Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo are two of the best fantasy prospects in baseball and likely contributors from the jump (or pretty close to it) this year. But y’all are already watching those guys, so yet another write-up of either feels unnecessary. Let’s talk about five other dudes of less-extreme projection instead, shall we?

Tyler Naquin, OF, CLE – With Michael Brantley on the shelf for the foreseeable future and penciled-in replacement Abraham Almonte shuffling off to PED purgatory for the entirety of the season’s first half, there’s a wide open road ahead for Naquin to emerge from spring training as the Tribe’s first rookie starter on Opening Day in 30 years. And he’s certainly doing his part, forcing the issues with a very strong spring (.400/.429/.650 in his first nine games).

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August 31, 2015 6:00 am

In A Pickle: Rookie of the Year Fun Facts

8

Jason Wojciechowski

Here you will find an exploration of the best, worst, and weirdest career ROY pairs

The only facts worth knowing are fun facts. I was recently struck that 2015 Rookies of the Year Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant are both very good baseball players, the one a no. 1 overall pick (Correa, 2012), the other no. 2 (Bryant, 2013), one topping out as our no. 3 overall prospect (Correa, 2015), the other as our no. 5 (Bryant, 2015). These aren't flashes in their respective pans, like Pat Listach or Ron Kittle. You don't expect 50-WARP careers out of anybody, but if you're going to put those expectations on any rookies currently playing, it's Correa and Bryant.

So here's the question I will answer using a spreadsheet built for me by the wizard Rob McQuown:1 What are the best and worst Rookie of the Year classes in terms of career value, and how does the Correa-Bryant pair look to fit in? (To be completely clear: Everything discussed in this piece is about career WARP. The goal isn't to talk about whether Rookie of the Year votes were "bad" or "good." Sometimes the legitimate best rookie in a season just BABIP'd his way into a career year; sometimes it's a precursor to greatness. These are their stories.)

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Do rookie starters struggle to find the strike zone in their first career starts?

Zack Wheeler’s big-league debut on Tuesday night went well. He held the Braves scoreless over six innings, allowing four hits, striking out seven batters, and showing impressive stuff. The only cause for complaint was that he walked five.

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Ben and Sam talk about some recent conflicts between veterans and young players, then discuss Don Mattingly's comments about the Dodgers' lack of grit.



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Ben and Sam discuss whether the A's all-rookie rotation bodes well for their future, then talk about whether the average strikeout rate has risen too high.

Ben and Sam discuss whether the A's all-rookie rotation bodes well for their future, then talk about whether the average strikeout rate has risen too high.

Episode 52: "Oakland's All-Rookie Rotation/Baseball's Ever-Rising Strikeout Rate"

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Two major-league teams are bereft of new blood on one side of the ball this season.

I lied to you a little in the title of this post. I did that because I wanted you to click on this article, and I was worried that you wouldn’t if I didn’t embellish a bit. Evidently it worked. So this is where I come clean and tell you that there aren't actually two teams who haven't had a rookie play for them in 2012. But now that you’re here, you might as well keep reading! Because there is something almost as interesting as two teams that haven’t had a rookie play for them: one team that hasn’t had a rookie pitcher play for it, and one team that hasn’t had a rookie non-pitcher play for it. Those teams, unlike the ones in my title, actually exist.

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Do early-season phenoms fade once the rest of the league learns to stop giving them pitches to hit?

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

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August 19, 2010 8:00 am

Changing Speeds: The Golden Generation

17

Ken Funck

The 2006 class is a tough one to beat among a strong recent group of rookie classes.

Earlier this week, the folks at Beloit College released their annual MindsetList, a document designed to explain the cultural differences between the incoming class of college freshmen and the older faculty hired to teach them. The idea is to highlight the small and large ways the world has changed in the last 20 years by mentioning things that were true during the life span of oldsters that were never true for those under 20, e.g., the existence of things like a telephone cord, a country called Czechoslovakia, and a baseball commissioner not named Bud. For me, a man who fervently hopes Jamie Moyer comes back next spring to ensure I won’t have to face being older than every major-league ballplayer, this is always a time to reflect on youth and age, both in life and in baseball—especially so this year, since the current Mindset List includes a reference to the term Annus Horribilus, which I happened to use in last year’s BP Annual, but which I now know dates me almost as much as saying “23 Skidoo.”

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