You might be better off letting someone else draft or buy these closers in your leagues this spring.
A bad hitter who bombs stings, but will likely stay in the lineup and give your fantasy team something. A bad closer will lose almost all of his value once he starts getting saves. Here are some relievers who run the risk of being that kind of pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Brad Boxberger, Rays
Boxberger is currently the 16th reliever coming off of the board in NFBC drafts, and the Rays reliever strikes me as the leading candidate among the top 20 to lose his closing job for performance-related reasons in 2016. Boxberger’s earnings in 2015 were masked by his shiny 41-save output, which was good for fourth overall. After putting together a sparkling 2014 season in which he struck out 42.1 percent of opposing hitters and held them to a .152 batting average against, Boxberger struggled with his command virtually all of the 2015 season, seeing his strikeout rate dip nearly 15 points to just over 27 percent and allowing baserunners by the truckload, as evidenced by his 1.37 WHIP. Boxberger’s high-wire act led to a 3.73 ERA, which could have actually been worse, as his 4.23 FIP and 4.63 DRA would suggest. Boxberger’s velocity dropped slightly in 2015, but along with the increase in his walk rate (just over eight percent in 2014 to almost 12 percent in 2015), he also saw his line-drive rate jump to a career-worst 21.3 percent (up from 16.7 percent in 2014) and watched his groundball rate tumble to 36.3 percent—also a career low.
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Stacking up the bullpenners based on their values through the end of the 2018 season.
J.J. Jansons and I are taking turns doing the three-year rankings, and we’ve arrived at the last installment, relief pitchers. In case you missed any of the previous positions, you have some catching up to do:
Breaking down the bullpenners into fantasy-value-based bins.
It’s everyone’s favorite time of year! It’s when we rank fantasy relievers, with the full understanding that approximately one-fourth of closers will lose their jobs prior to the end of the season, so we can look back at this list in October and have a guffaw.
Saves are nice, but which relievers are worth circling on your draft sheets in leagues that count holds?
Imagine, being able to be magically whisked away to… Reliever Week! Hi… it’s… Reliever Week…
As another wise man from another 80s cult classic once said, no matter where you go, there you are. And, indeed, here we are in middle of everybody’s favorite week of the positional series. I guess I’ll start by reiterating a couple things I said in this very column last year: I wholeheartedly endorse the strategy of deploying multiple middle men in a given week to help balance out your back-of-the-rotation ratios, but I believe that attempting to project middle reliever performance pre-season is largely a fool’s errand, and there are more than enough pop-up arms in the course of a given spring to snag a couple with early FAAB dollars and go on about your business that way. Sure, there are a couple elite options who’ve proven durable and effective in the middle innings over multiple seasons (hello, Dellin Betances and Darren O’Day). But for every one of those there are a good half-dozen or more guys like Will Harris or Kevin Siegrist every year who go completely undrafted in virtually every format, then go on to post $10 or $11 seasons (as those two did last year, respectively). Joe Blanton? Yeah, he put up eight bucks last year. Think about him when your finger is hovering over the “DRAFT” button next to the picture of Setup Man X’s inevitably-goateed mug.
Our staff believes these bullpen arms could provide nice value on draft or auction day.
Given the risk with relief pitchers, you don’t want to draft a closer who will combust this year. Additionally, there are some nice sleepers out there who could emerge and grab the closer job at some point in 2016. Here are some relief targets for you to consider.
Cody Allen, Indians
There isn’t much disagreement about the top tier of relievers entering 2016. With Aroldis Chapman faded because of the 30-game suspension, Wade Davis, Craig Kimbrel, and Kenley Jansen are the consensus top three. It gets pretty murky from there, with another seven closers being selected between the 88th and 104th picks, according to NFBC ADP data. On the one hand, it’s not terribly instructive to quibble with ordering when the second tier is so tightly clustered; on the other, it’s difficult to understand why Cody Allen is the last name inside the top 10.
All you need to know about the senior circuit's high-leverage bullpen arms.
I wrote this article thinking that deep-league NL-only roto players already know who is closing for each team. I will mention the closer for each team as a reference, but I’ll spend more time talking about the non-closers in each bullpen.
Mike revisits his preseason bid limits on starters and relievers across both circuits.
Welcome to my third annual look at retrospective player valuation at Baseball Prospectus. Over the next few weeks, I will be writing a series of articles examining how players performed from a fantasy perspective in 2015. This is the fifth article in a series of six. The first four articles in the series focused on NL-only and AL-only leagues. The final two posts examine mixed leagues, with this article examining pitchers.
Before I dig in, here is a brief description of the charts below. (If you have been reading along for the entire series, note that there are some changes for the mixed league articles).
Reviewing the senior circuit's bargain pitching buys from the past season.
In my last Freestyle article, I profiled NL-only position players who were hovering near the bottom of our sheet prices, or were not even on our draft-day radars, but proved to be fantasy assets in deep NL-only formats. This week we’ll turn our attention to senior-circuit hurlers who provided substantial dividends for their owners this year despite accounting for a fraction of auction salary dollars and FAAB budgets. We’ve broken out by starting pitchers and bullpen arms so each get their respective dues.