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10-12

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2

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALDS Game 4 Previews
by
R.J. Anderson and Sam Miller

10-11

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1

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Sunday Game 3 Previews
by
Jeff Quinton and Matthew Trueblood

10-09

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0

Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALDS Game Two Previews
by
R.J. Anderson and Sam Miller

10-09

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1

Playoff Prospectus: The Win That Left Beltre Crying: ALDS Game 1
by
R.J. Anderson

09-04

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BP Unfiltered: Decoding the Safeco Paper
by
R.J. Anderson

07-22

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0

Transaction Analysis: Texas Closes the Deal on Garza
by
Jason Parks and Jason Cole

05-23

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5

Overthinking It: The Incredible New Neal Cotts
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-14

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3

Skewed Left: Replacement Rangers
by
Zachary Levine

04-08

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4

Skewed Left: Beating Yu Darvish
by
Zachary Levine

03-25

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15

Prospectus Preview: These Questions Three: The Favorites
by
R.J. Anderson and Nick J. Faleris

02-12

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 138: 2013 Season Preview Series: Texas Rangers
by
Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller and Pete Barrett

12-27

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 108: What Position Should Ian Kinsler Play?/How Do You Know When You Need a New GM?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

12-22

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7

Overthinking It: The Winter's Quietest Contenders
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-06

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9

Playoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game Recap: Orioles 5, Rangers 1
by
Derek Carty

09-10

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16

Baseball Therapy: Reading Lolita in Teheran, Part 1: Intro and Losing Focus
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-31

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5

Pebble Hunting: The Best Pitches Thrown This Week (Yu Darvish Edition)
by
Sam Miller

08-14

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1

What You Need to Know: Tuesday, August 14
by
Daniel Rathman

08-14

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 20: Elephant
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-09

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1

BP Unfiltered: Yu Darvish with Two Strikes
by
Dan Brooks

08-09

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3

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 17: Manny Comin'
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-30

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27

Pebble Hunting: The Decline and Fall of the Texas Rangers
by
Sam Miller

05-14

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4

Overthinking It: The Rangers' Secret Weapon
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-11

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11

Prospectus Game of the Week: A Strange Start in Baltimore
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

04-29

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BP Unfiltered: Baseball Prospectus & The Newberg Report Night at Rangers Ballpark- June 24, 2012
by
Joe Hamrahi

03-08

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13

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Spring Training Diary, Days 8 and 9
by
Jason Parks

03-01

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41

Future Shock: The Curious Case of Jairo Beras
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-29

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12

Prospectus Preview: AL West 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Jason Parks and Jason Wojciechowski

01-23

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11

Bizball: How the AL West Has Become the AL East
by
Maury Brown

12-20

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8

Bizball: How Television Money and International Sponsorships Allowed the Rangers to Win the Yu Darvish Posting Fee Derby
by
Maury Brown

11-23

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16

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Bear a Starter's Fruit: The Three Acts of Feliz
by
Jason Parks

10-31

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33

World Series Prospectus: A Card Fought Win
by
Jay Jaffe

10-31

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15

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Texas Rangers
by
Ben Lindbergh, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

10-31

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22

Playoff Prospectus: Shuffling Through the World Series
by
Jason Parks

10-28

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54

World Series Prospectus: Game Six: The Crazy Train Keeps Rolling
by
Jay Jaffe

10-23

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8

World Series Prospectus: Once, Twice, Three Times a Long Ball
by
Jay Jaffe

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-18

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8

On the Beat: Rangers Renaissance
by
John Perrotto

10-17

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12

Playoff Prospectus: Still the Same: Rangers Return to the Series
by
Jason Parks

10-08

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5

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview
by
Ben Lindbergh and Derek Carty

10-06

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7

Playoff Prospectus: What to Expect When You're Expecting... Another Trip to the World Series?
by
Jason Parks

07-21

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1

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Streaking in the Wild West
by
Joey Matschulat

07-01

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3

Divide and Conquer, AL West: The Lone Rangers?
by
Joey Matschulat

03-31

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42

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-17

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11

Divide and Conquer, AL West: Will the Rangers Repeat?
by
Joey Matschulat

01-03

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16

Contractual Matters: A Texas-sized Payroll Leap
by
Jeff Euston

11-22

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10

GM for a Day: Texas Rangers
by
Tommy Bennett

11-05

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8

On the Beat: Big Game Hunting
by
John Perrotto

11-04

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5

Kiss'Em Goodbye: Texas Rangers
by
Christina Kahrl, Kevin Goldstein and ESPN Insider

10-31

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10

World Series Prospectus: Game Three Report
by
John Perrotto

10-26

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19

World Series Prospectus: World Series Preview
by
Christina Kahrl

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December 22, 2012 10:03 am

Overthinking It: The Winter's Quietest Contenders

7

Ben Lindbergh

Which of last season's contending teams have been least active this offseason, and why?

With only 50 days remaining until the first February report dates—and 100 until Opening Day—most teams have already crossed off the majority of the items on their winter to-do lists, and only a handful of the top 20 free agents are still looking for work. But while many of baseball’s best clubs have stayed busy bringing in new players or bringing back old ones, a few of the teams that made (or came close to making) the playoffs last season have been quiet. Here’s a look at four teams with more tumbleweeds than transactions this winter:

Baltimore Orioles
Biggest move they’ve made:
Re-signing Nate McLouth to a one-year contract
Why they haven’t been busier: The Orioles went from last place to the playoffs without making many major moves last winter, and they didn’t stop tinkering after Opening Day. Unlike the Yankees, who’ve spent much of the winter trying to keep or replace free agents, the O’s entered the offseason with most of their important players under team control for 2013. However, they will have to pony up for arbitration raises, which restricts their financial flexibility.
Will they wish they’d done more? The Orioles’ run differential didn’t prevent them from making the playoffs last season, but the odds aren’t good that they’ll be able to replicate their 29-9 regular-season record in one-run games. Balitmore can hope for better health and better production from their young players, but with their division rivals all active since October, the O’s run a real risk of falling prey to the Plexiglas Principle and losing ground to the teams they leapfrogged last season.
What might they still do? Last winter, Dan Duquette waited until January to sign Wei-Yin Chen and February to trade for Jason Hammel, so it wouldn’t be surprising if he took the patient approach again. This year, Joe Saunders is the most likely late entry to the rotation. It’s a long shot, but the O’s have also been linked to Adam LaRoche, who’d fit in nicely at first with Mark Reynolds off the roster.





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October 6, 2012 12:55 am

Playoff Prospectus: AL Wild Card Game Recap: Orioles 5, Rangers 1

9

Derek Carty

The Orioles' first playoff game, much like their season, didn't go quite the way we expected.

As was noted in the Wild Card Roundtable, Joe Saunders’ performance in the Orioles’ 5-1 win over Texas serves as a near-perfect analogy for Baltimore’s season as a whole. Nobody expected either to stick around very long, but while it wasn’t pretty, both got the job done. Saunders, whom I wrote would have a short leash, didn’t need much slack tonight, hurling 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball. Though he found himself in quite a few jams of varying sizes, he never let things get out of hand. He allowed a baserunner in every inning (except the sixth, when he got pulled), but Saunders’ specialty, the well-timed groundball—including three double plays!—helped him minimize the damage. As a result, the Orioles have reached the ALDS for the first time since 1997 and will host the division-rival Yankees at home on Sunday.

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What can the staff psychologist/stathead learn from the way our prospect expert describes players' problems?

I want to do something experimental.

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Watching Yu Darvish is wonderful. Hitting against him is hell.

Beside pitch speed, pitch location, pitch spin, pitch movement, pitch type, count, batter, park, umpire, release point, etc., PITCHf/x also logs something called pitch-type confidence. Since the system is using algorithms to deduce what the pitch is based on speed, movement, and release point, it has to make some assumptions. If a pitcher throws only one type of fastball, and it is 10 mph faster than any other pitch he throws, and it is the only pitch that breaks to the pitcher’s glove side, the system can be pretty confident when it labels a 98-mph pitch a fastball.

But then there’s Yu Darvish. Of all the pitches Yu Darvish has thrown this year, 43 were give a confidence level of 50 percent or lower, and 506 were 80 or lower. Compare this to, say, Wandy Rodriguez, my go-to control group. He has thrown just one pitch with a confidence rating lower of 50 percent or lower, and 121 at 80 or lower. Or compare to (random pitcher) Stephen Strasburg: five below 50, 120 below 80. Strasburg has thrown 81 pitches that PITCHf/x was 100 percent confident about. Yu Darvish has thrown none.

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The Rangers and Giants will probably both be playoff teams, but two other virtual locks for October, the Yankees and Nationals, made them look bad last night.

The Monday Takeaway
According to the playoff odds as of Tuesday morning, the Rangers are virtually certain to (99.5 percent) be dancing in October, and the Giants have more than a puncher’s chance (58.4 percent). Twelve hours earlier, the Yankees and Nationals, respectively, made them look like bona fide pretenders.

In the Bronx, Ryan Dempster retired the first six Yankees he faced, allowing the Rangers offense to build a 2-0 lead. Then, someone moved batting practice to the bottom of the third inning, and Nick Swisher highlighted the five-run session with a four-run missile into the second deck. The grand slam was Swisher’s 200th career home run, but it had nothing on this 441-foot, sixth-inning blast off the bat of Eric Chavez. And, as if those two bombs weren’t enough, Derek Lowe—fresh off the scrap heap and straight into mop-up duty—needed only 44 pitches to cruise through four innings and earn his first save since 2001. A game Texas led 2-0 ended 8-2 the other way, and the Yankees surged a half-game ahead in the race for the American League’s number-one seed.


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Ben and Sam discuss the significance of a potential big-league promotion for Jurickson Profar and investigate the link between Johan Santana's no-hitter and his subsequent struggles.

Ben and Sam discuss the significance of a potential big-league promotion for Jurickson Profar and investigate the link between Johan Santana's no-hitter and his subsequent struggles.

Effectively Wild Episode 20: "Elephant"

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Yu Darvish is taking a different approach with two strikes than he did toward the start of the season.

One way to look at how a pitcher attacks hitters is to look at what the pitcher throws in two-strike counts. In two-strike counts, pitchers often try to put hitters away with a breaking ball, induce weak contact with a sinker, overpower hitters with an extra-hard fastball, or throw a changeup with a bit of extra screw action.

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Ben and Sam discuss Manny Machado's surprising promotion to the majors and Roy Oswalt's tumultuous transition to the bullpen.

Effectively Wild Episode 17: "Manny Comin'"

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May 30, 2012 5:42 am

Pebble Hunting: The Decline and Fall of the Texas Rangers

27

Sam Miller

The Rangers are great, but some day, the Rangers are going to be terrible. How will the end come?

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May 14, 2012 11:15 am

Overthinking It: The Rangers' Secret Weapon

4

Ben Lindbergh

He's no Josh Hamilton, but Rangers outfielder Craig Gentry might be better than you think he is.

“I’ve got a chance to be a solid everyday player. In years past, I’ve had to scratch and fight just to try and make the team.”Craig Gentry, February 14, 2012

“That’s what Gentry’s job is, to be a defensive replacement and to play against left-handers. I want to allow him to do his job. … I want him to know what his role is and when that situation [presents] itself, he’s ready to do that.”Ron Washington, April 29, 2012

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The Orioles wrap up a bizarrely historic week with a start from Colby Lewis unlike any we've seen before.

The Orioles have had a bizarrely historic week. On Sunday, 1B/DH Chris Davis picked up the first pitching win by a position player in the American League since Rocky Colavito did it in 1968 against the Boston Red Sox. When the Sox sent Darnell McDonald (another former Oriole) to the mound after him in the top of the 17th inning, it was the first time both teams had used a position player as a reliever since 1925, and it was the first time two position players had gotten a decision since 1902. Until Davis's afternoon, a 0-8, 5K, GIDP day at the plate combined with a pitching win hadn't happened since 1905.

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Stadium Tour continues with The Newberg Report in Texas

Baseball Prospectus, The Newberg Report and the Texas Rangers invite you to join us for a great day of baseball on Sunday, June 24 at Rangers Ballpark.Thanks to the fine folks in the Rangers front office, we are proud to be able to offer our guests the following:

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