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07-13

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76

Long Relief: Top 50 Busted Prospects
by
BP Staff

07-06

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61

2017 Prospects: Midseason Top 50
by
Jeffrey Paternostro and BP Prospect Staff

07-07

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3

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 486: Jason Parks on the Top 50 Prospects in Baseball
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-07

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83

The BP Top 50
by
Jason Parks and BP Prospect Staff

02-09

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16

BP Unfiltered: 2014 Top Prospect Compilation - Updated February 6, 2014
by
Joe Hamrahi

11-18

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 331: Jason Parks on the Best Farm System in Baseball
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-22

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 248: Bartolo Colon and the PED Question/Ruben Amaro and Prospect Rankings
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

04-30

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15

Dissecting the Draft: Introduction
by
Nick J. Faleris

11-06

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6

BP Unfiltered: Prospect Ranking Regrets and the Importance of Instinct in Scouting
by
Chris Mellen

08-21

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 25: The Secretly Successful White Sox System?/Starlin Castro's Makeup Concerns
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-07

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31

Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Positional Primary: Right-Handed Pitchers
by
Jason Parks

03-17

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23

Future Shock: Future Top Dogs, NL
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-25

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0

Future Shock: Rockies Mail Bag
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-10

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0

Future Shock: AL Top 11 Prospects Update
by
Kevin Goldstein

04-27

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: The PECOTA Top 100
by
Nate Silver

02-01

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Introduction
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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0

Future Shock: Managing Expectations
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-21

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2006 Top 50 Prospects
by
David Regan

02-01

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: How the Sausage Was Made
by
Baseball Prospectus

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A point-by-point response that provides some explanation into how Kevin crafts his prospect rankings.

Prospect rankings generate tons of emails, be it from fans, agents, front office folks, even players themselves. More often than not, they are simple enough questions. 'Why isn't player X ranked higher, or ranked at all?' is the usual tone these emails take, but one of our subscribers delivered quite the missive concerning this week's rankings of the Colorado Rockies, and it's one that took some time to reply to, while also covering some broader ground on the ranking process in general, so I thought I'd share with the class.

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January 10, 2008 12:00 am

Future Shock: AL Top 11 Prospects Update

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Kevin Goldstein

After a busy winter's swapping in the junior circuit, a scoresheet of the changes down on the farm.

One of the great troubles with ranking prospects is that time doesn't stand still and rankings don't exist in a vacuum. Teams make moves, my inbox gets flooded, and rankings need to change. So instead of just leaving well enough alone, before I begin the National League let's go back to the American League and see what needs updating.

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Nate comes to the end of his prospect review by naming his Top 100 and combining his valuations with those of our own Kevin Goldstein.

This is my favorite column of the year to write, perhaps because there's relatively little actual writing involved. Let's bring the PECOTA Takes on Prospects series to its long overdue conclusion.

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Nate introduces this year's PECOTA-based look at ranking prospects. Today, he lays out the methodology, which includes a few key changes to how he approached this project last year.

Last year, we ran our first-ever series of PECOTA-based prospect rankings. This wasn’t necessarily intended to be an annual feature, but it proved to generate a lot of good discussion, so here we are again.

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March 20, 2006 12:00 am

Future Shock: Managing Expectations

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Kevin Goldstein

Kevin tempers the enthusiasm we all have about our team's minor league system.

Prior to the 2001 season, Baseball America published their first Prospect Handbook, and it was a groundbreaking work. With rankings of the top 30 prospects for each team, and a write-up for each one, fans were suddenly able to get an in-depth look at their favorite team's system far more extensively than ever before. But somewhere between there and now, something happened. That something involved how fans interpreted these lists, as opposed to how they were compiled. With the growth in prospect interest over the past few years (due to a variety of reasons), rankings are now everywhere. Baseball America still does them, but plenty of other publications, Web sites, blogs, etc. have entered the fray. One of the key things I believe nearly all prospect rankers have failed to do, however, is to manage expectations. Many fans tend to believe that when they look at a top 10 list, they are looking at 10 future big league players, or even future stars. Although it's no fault of the rankers, the reality couldn't be further from the truth.

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February 21, 2006 12:00 am

2006 Top 50 Prospects

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David Regan

We take a look inside the selection criteria for assembling our Top 50 Prospects list.

For example, BP's Top 50 from 2005, while not without flaws, was better than most. Sure there were pitchers ranked highly (Richie Gardner and Adam Miller) who succumbed to arm injuries. We had thought that Willy Aybar (#34) would develop some power by now and that Edwin Jackson (#45) would improve from his sub-par 2004. Despite those missteps, Baseball Prospectus is proud of the work that went into that list as well as the 2006 version.

With a verifiable cornucopia of prospect lists out in cyberspace, there of course exists a vast array of philosophies governing the compilation of these lists. The king of prospect sites, Baseball America, ranks prospects based on scouting reports, tools, upside, age vs. level of competition and performance. Other sites lean heavily on a player's walk rate. Take, for example, the case of second baseman Travis Denker, in the Dodgers' system. After Denker hit .310/.417/.556 in Low A as a 20-year-old, many sites had him among their top 50 and, in one case, much higher. With a BB/PA rate of .147, Denker has exhibited unusual plate discipline for a young prospect. However, what these lofty rankings ignored were his stone hands, iron glove, .155 EqA upon his promotion to High-A that year, and his PECOTA projections. When different ranking systems rate some pieces of the puzzle higher than other systems, wildly differing outcomes will result.

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On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus announced its Top 40 Prospects for 2001. The driving force behind that list is Rany Jazayerli, but the good doctor gets input from everyone on the BP staff.

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