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Articles Tagged Probability 

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07-25

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4

The View from the Loge Level: Ode to Joe
by
Daron Sutton

11-19

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26

Pebble Hunting: The Hall of Fame 50 Percent Probability Test
by
Sam Miller

05-29

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18

Baseball ProGUESTus: No No-No, No Cry
by
Craig Glaser

04-27

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Royal Flush
by
James Click

08-25

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12

The BP Wayback Machine: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

08-29

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2

Between The Numbers: The PITCHf/x Summit Quasi-Liveblog
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-13

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14

Prospectus Q&A: Jeff Ma
by
Will Carroll

06-08

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18

Expanded Horizons: Perfection
by
Tommy Bennett

08-20

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13

Checking the Numbers: Two Out of Three Aint Bad
by
Eric Seidman

06-10

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25

Checking the Numbers: Binomial Feliz
by
Eric Seidman

09-27

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1

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It
by
Nate Silver

08-01

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0

The Big Picture: Analyzing the Umpires
by
David Pinto

03-16

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Hope and Faith: How the Detroit Tigers Can Win the World Series
by
Nate Silver

10-16

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Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

04-06

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Wins and the Quantum
by
Dan Fox

11-22

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Lies, Damned Lies: Defending Jeffrey
by
Nate Silver

10-19

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Lies, Damned Lies: Running the Odds
by
Nate Silver

08-18

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Crooked Numbers: Royal Flush
by
James Click

05-04

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Lies, Damned Lies: Introducing ORVY
by
Nate Silver

05-07

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Lies, Damned Lies: Binomial Distribution (or What the Heck is Up with Miguel Tejada and Alex Gonzalez?)
by
Nate Silver

10-12

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Call It In The Air!
by
Dave Pease

03-04

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Analytic Model Creation Contest
by
Keith Woolner

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July 25, 2014 11:09 am

The View from the Loge Level: Ode to Joe

4

Daron Sutton

Joe Garagiola will be honored in Cooperstown this weekend. Daron recounts some of Garagiola's best stories.

For five and a half seasons, it was a true blessing and gift to be able to call major-league baseball games several times a month with one of the legendary voices of several generations, Joe Garagiola. Spending those unforgettable years with Joe, it was amazing how one of the game's greatest personalities of all-time still maintained a humility that allowed him to serve as a mentor and friend to everyone he encountered. This weekend in Cooperstown, Joe will be honored the third recipient of the Buck O'Neil Lifetime Achievement Award, a fitting accolade at the very minimum.

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November 19, 2013 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: The Hall of Fame 50 Percent Probability Test

26

Sam Miller

At what win threshold are players at each age level a 50-50 shot to make the Hall of Fame?

I was wondering whether Andrew McCutchen, after winning his first MVP award, was on a Hall of Fame track. So I went to look at what the typical Hall of Famer had at the same age, then realized with shame that the thing I’ve been doing all these years—looking at what the typical Hall of Famer had at the same age—doesn’t make any logical sense. Yes, the average Hall of Famer might have had (X) WARP through age 26, but

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No Mets pitcher has ever thrown a no-hitter? How unlikely is their no no-no streak, and how many no-hitters would we expect them to have?

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Craig Glaser is an Application Developer at Bloomberg Sports, where he helped design and implement the algorithms that make Bloomberg’s fantasy baseball tool Front Office tick.  He has previously written articles for The Hardball Times, Surviving the Citi, Amazin’ Avenue, and his own site, Sabometrics. A member of SABR, he has recently participated in panels at the SABR Analytics and 50th Anniversary of the Mets conferences.  In a prior life, he studied Experimental Economics and Cognitive Psychology at NYU, focusing on how people perceive probabilities, a field of study that continues to color his view of life and the sport of baseball. You can find his musings about sports, probability, and everything else on Twitter @Sabometrics.
 


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In the wake of another long losing streak for the Royals, we revisit an even longer one from last decade.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

The Royals ended a 12-game losing streak on Wednesday, but that wasn't nearly their longest in recent memory. To refresh your memory on the Royals' futility and the odds of long losing streaks, take another look at the article reproduced below, which originally ran as a "Crooked Numbers" column on August 18, 2005.
 


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As we head for the season's home stretch, Nate reminds us that even comfortable leads late in the season aren't sure things.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

There's no such thing as a lock, as Nate discovered in his research on late-season collapses, which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on September 27, 2007.


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A comprehensive recap of a big day for FIELDf/x.

I have seen the future, and its name is FIELDf/x. OK, so we kind of knew that. But today, FIELDf/x started to seem a lot more real, and even more exciting than I’d imagined. You may have noticed that BP had a man on the scene at Sportvision’s PITCHf/x summit whose liveblog was actually live. So why am I doing this, when Colin already did? Well, for one thing, Colin arrived fashionably late, and I was all over those first 14 minutes that he missed. For another, his computer died before a lot of the fun started. And for still another (this is a third reason, now), I thought it might be fun to do a Simmons-style quasi-liveblog (written live, published later) that would free me from worries about frequent updates, and allow me to write at length. Most likely that length turned out to be a good deal longer than anyone has any interest in reading, but if you’re determined to catch up on the day’s intriguing events without sitting through eight hours of archived video, you’re welcome to peruse what lies below. If you’d like to follow along, here’s an agenda, and here’s where you should be able to find downloadable presentations in the near future.

Here we are in sunny California, home of the cutest girls in the world, if the Beach Boys are to be believed (I gather there’s also a more recent chart-topper that expresses a similar view). Okay, so by “we,” I mean the attendees at the 3rd (annual?) Sportvision PITCHf/x summit, held at the Westin San Francisco in—you guessed it—San Francisco. I, on the other hand, am watching from the other end of the continent, via a webcast that dubiously claims to be “hi-res,” despite being blurry enough to make deciphering text an adventure (I guess “hi-res” is relative, in the sense that there are even lower resolutions at which it could’ve been streamed). And sure, maybe the Beach Boys weren’t thinking of this particular gathering when they extolled the virtues of California’s beach bunnies. But never mind that—it’s a beautiful Saturday afternoon here in New York, and how better to spend it than to watch a video of some fellow nerds talk about baseball in a dark room some 3,000 miles away? Well, to describe the experience at the same time, of course. Let’s get this quasi-liveblog started.

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One of the subjects of the movie 21 discusses his upcoming book, The House Advantage, and incorporating statistics into life.

Jeff Ma is one of the few people who had a movie made about part of his life, and yet remains much more interesting than the character that Hollywood invented. He was one of the "MIT Blackjack Team" portrayed in the movie 21 and in Ben Mezrich's book Bringing Down The House. He started ProTrade and Citizen Sports, which was sold to Yahoo last year. Now, he's brought all of his background and love for sports into a new book, The House Advantage.

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June 8, 2010 7:00 am

Expanded Horizons: Perfection

18

Tommy Bennett

The randomness of a perfect game is a big part of what makes one so special.

What moment defines a perfect game? Is it the clinching pitch, the fist-pump, and the dogpile? Is it the camera shot of the players in the dugout avoiding the starter like he’s got bad news? What about the sensational defensive play that typifies the way perfect games are not simply individual performances? No. The defining moment of any would-be perfect game is the moment it dawns on you. Say, you think to yourself as you glance down at your scorecard, how many hits has he given up? No walks, either, huh?

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August 20, 2009 12:42 pm

Checking the Numbers: Two Out of Three Aint Bad

13

Eric Seidman

How good are the chances that Albert Pujols wins the Triple Crown?

Forgive me a lapse of obviousness, but Albert Pujols is one of the greatest players of all time, the type of all-around talent I will take pride in declaring incomparable when describing his career to my future children. He makes an ample amount of contact, knocks the ball out of the yard at least 30 times a year, drives plenty of his teammates in, plays Gold Glove-caliber defense, and makes up for a lack of raw baserunning speed with smarts on the basepaths. This confluence of characteristics makes Pujols the perfect specimen, sort of like the baseball equivalent of the comic book character Deadpool. It also makes Pujols a virtually unanimous choice to be a plausible Triple Crown heir apparent to Carl Yastrzemski, the man who last accomplished the near-impossible feat back in 1967. Sticking solely to the senior circuit, nobody has topped the leaderboards in batting average, home runs, and RBI in the same season since Joe Medwick did it for the Cardinals in the 1937 campaign.

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June 10, 2009 1:12 pm

Checking the Numbers: Binomial Feliz

25

Eric Seidman

The impossible dreams some might hold for Pedro Feliz aren't really all that impossible after all.

Despite playing alongside Barry Bonds for several seasons, Pedro Feliz never learned to discipline his bat, entering this season with an abysmal .292 career on-base percentage. Given his antipathy toward taking free passes, it stands to reason that what transpired in a May 12 matchup between the Phillies and Dodgers could induce double-takes from even the most seasoned baseball people. In the bottom of the third, Clayton Kershaw issued a four-pitch walk to Feliz to begin the frame. The very next inning, with nobody out and a runner on second, Pedro held up on a 3-2 offering and earned his second straight base on balls. If Feliz had stopped here, his two-walk performance would still have been a relatively monumental feat for him, as he had batted in 983 games from 2001-08, and walked at least twice in a game on just 14 different occasions. Then, in the bottom of the sixth, with a runner on first, nobody out, and James McDonald in from the bullpen, Feliz took four pitches out of the zone, and trotted down to first for a third consecutive time. An inning later, Feliz stepped up with the bases loaded, and after Jayson Werth opened up a spot on the basepaths with a steal of home plate, Ronald Belisario threw two more balls, giving Pedro his fourth walk of the game.

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September 27, 2007 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It

1

Nate Silver

Which teams blew the best possible shots at making the postseason, and where do the ill-fated teams on this year's NL slate stand to land?

Today's article represents an update of Clay Davenport's piece from two years ago that described the biggest collapses in playoff chase history (spoiler alert!), as defined by the teams that had the highest percentage chance to reach the playoffs at some point during the regular season who then failed to do so. I have a comprehensive set of playoff odds reports that Clay prepared for us in connection with It Ain't Over, and was therefore able to identify a couple of races that Clay had missed during his spot-checking. In addition, I will be looking all the way back to the start of the season, rather than limiting things to August 1st as Clay did; it's surprisingly easy for teams to establish a stranglehold on a playoff spot relatively early in the season in the Wild Card era, and if they're a bit less dramatic as narratives go, those collapses still deserve discussion. In addition, Clay has made some improvements to his methodology since the time his article was originally published, so all of that goodness is incorporated herein.

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August 1, 2007 12:00 am

The Big Picture: Analyzing the Umpires

0

David Pinto

David takes a stroll through some data to see if there are any umpires who might favor the underdog a little too much.

The last column in this series wondered about the possibility of an NBA-like referee scandal happening with Major League umpires. The structure of the game makes that difficult, but I'd like to back that up with research. Now, with data in hand, I'd like to explore if there are umpires who are kind to either favorites or underdogs. With help from Retrosheet, home-plate umpires from 2000 through 2006 will be scored on the probability of the winning percentage of game favorites fitting the expectation. This covers the time period since the mass resignation of umpires in 1999.

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