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Articles Tagged Preseason Predictions 

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After a month of play, Bret is buying into Dexter Fowler's power surge and Yu Darvish's tremendous strikeout rate, among other things.

Pre-season bold predictions lists are totally overdone these days. I mean, who even does those anyway. So lame. This, on the other hand, is where the real fun is. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the second annual installment of Bret’s bold predictions based on April’s small samples.

This type of exercise provides a different challenge than a standard March bold predictions piece. Not only does it take into account the players who you consider “your guys,” but you also have to maneuver through which April performances are sustainable and which are not. In other words, it’s time to separate the Chris Sheltons from the Cliff Lees.

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Pegging BP's favorites in both leagues, both in the standings and for the major awards.

Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American and National Leagues. Each staff member's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division with first-place votes in parentheses, plus the results of our pre-season MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting. 

For the MVP voting, we've slightly amended the traditional points system in place that has been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that's 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 points for a second-place vote, etc.).

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Years ago, BP's Rany Jazayerli showed that once teams pass the 30-game mark, hot starts (or cold ones) start becoming meaningful. What does this portend for this year's surprise teams?

This past weekend in Chicago, I bent elbows with several fellow baseball writers at Miller's Pub, a venue lined with old baseball and celebrity photos, chosen because it was a favorite haunt of the late Bill Veeck. Among those I had the opportunity to talk to was Baseball Prospectus co-founder Rany Jazayerli. Quite rightly, BP's resident dermatologist/Royals fan was buzzing about his team's decision to recall elite hitting prospect Eric Hosmer. "Hosmer is now a Royal, the future is now the present, and The Process is now being judged by results at the major-league level," wrote Rany at his blog earlier that day.

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September 28, 2010 9:00 am

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Catcher, Second Base, and Shortstop

4

Michael Jong

Hot Spots finishes the 2010 season with some of the top fantasy surprises up the middle.

As Hot Spots colleague Michael Street alluded to yesterday, BP will be finishing up Hot Spots for the 2010 season with a bright note, with fantasy baseball's surprises of the season. Again, these surprises will be based not only on judgment of the individual authors but also differences between projected values from before the season and their current 5x5 roto league value. The up-the-middle positions were ravaged with various injuries to key names, but quite a few players that were available in the waiver wires early in the year surprised more than a few people on the way to excellent seasons. To those of you lucky enough to have grabbed one of these names in the early parts of the season, I hope you're riding them to playoff victory now.

(Note: All preseason dollar predictions were taken from the Graphical Player 2010. All year-to-date dollar values were taken from Heater Magazine.)

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September 23, 2010 9:31 am

Fantasy Beat: Hot Spots: Relief Pitchers

2

Mike Petriello

This week, we look at relievers who didn't quite live up to the hype.

I really enjoyed looking at under-the-radar closer prospects the last two weeks; the research did me some good, and I'm hoping it helped out a few of you as well. This week has a bit less of a feel-good tone to it, because we're looking at relievers who we expected big things out of in 2010, and who just didn't deliver. Depressing as it may be to think about, since many of these guys were owned in nearly all leagues and probably sank more than one team, we're also going to look into whether you want to give them another shot next year.

(Note: All preseason dollar predictions were taken from the Graphical Player 2010. All year-to-date dollar values were taken from Heater Magazine.)

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Evaluating predictions for the season past, and closing the book on it.

Every year I try to project every team's record and runs scored and allowed, using as much information as is available to me in the waning days of March. I do it because it's fun, and because the process of making those predictions is very educational for me in the ramp-up to the season. The process, rather than the end results, is what is important, because the chance of getting many teams' overall records or run differentials correct is fairly slim. The value of the pieces I write at that time is in the analysis, the words; the numbers are for information purposes only.

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March 25, 2008 12:00 am

Prospectus Today: Under Review

0

Joe Sheehan

Before getting to previewing how the season will play out, it's important to take a look back at how last year turned out.

Before I kick off the 2008 season-preview series, with records and runs scored/runs allowed predictions for all 30 teams, I want to take a look back at last year's set to see if I can learn anything. This is sometimes an interesting exercise, and sometimes an excuse for navel-gazing, and I'm never sure which one it will be until I fire up the spreadsheet.

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December 12, 2007 12:00 am

Predictatron Post-Hoc

0

Jason Paré

Way back in the spring, many of you participated in the Predictatron contest. So how did you do?

The Wrapup

With the closing of the Winter Meetings and the igniting of the yearly hot stove, it's once again time to examine the results from BP's Predictatron contest. Roughly equivalent to an overgrown fantasy football pick'em, Predictatron asks BP readers and staff alike to forecast the individual records of each MLB team, along with a bracket-like prediction of playoff results and the eventual World Series winner. First prize in the contest is $500 and a framed picture of Commissioner Bud Selig. With swag like that, who needs the money? Full rules can be found here.

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There's a rising favorite in the AL Central, as our experts weigh in on everything from division winners to Matsuzaka's line.

Our annual predictions arrive this year as our Hope and Faith series comes to an end. While the beauty of spring training is that every team can think it has a chance, somebody has to take the losses. For today, we concentrate on the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American League. Tomorrow we'll conclude with the National League predictions, along with the staff picks for the World Series.

Each author's division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you'll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our preseason MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year voting. A slight shift at the bottom of the AL East rankings, a rising favorite in the AL Central, and anarchy in the AL West highlight our staff's guesses.

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November 9, 2006 12:00 am

Predictatron Recap

0

Ben Murphy

BP's newest contest is taken down by a Twins fan.

Just as I did last year, I'm here to follow up the HACKING MASS Wrap with a look at this year's Predictatron results. This is the second year we've done the Predictatron contest, and it continues to be popular, for obvious reasons--trying to predict the order of finish and teams' eventual records is one of the oldest hobbies of baseball fans.

For those that haven't had the pleasure to compete, Predictatron is the annual contest at Baseball Prospectus where entrants can win $500 by predicting the total wins for each of the 30 major league teams, and the results of the playoffs. Basic scoring is set up so that everyone starts with 1000 points, and you lose points for every win you are off for each team; you can win points back with the playoffs. There are also a few wrinkles, like the Mortal Lock, so I'd encourage everyone to read the full rules.

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With the season at the halfway point, Ben Murphy has a look at how people made their Predictatron picks.

Before delving deeper, some of you might find it helpful to read up on these statistical terms (thanks to Wikipedia):

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November 5, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Matchups: How Did He Do?

0

Jim Baker

While Jim might have been able to slip by without taking a look at his preseason predictions, he's decided to face the music.

There are certain--how shall I say it?--advantages to making one's preseason picks while writing for one website and then reviewing them at the end of the season while writing for a different one. It gives one the temptation to, for lack of a better word, "fudge" the original picks so that one appears clairvoyant. I will not be taking advantage of that situation when I look back on what I wrote in early April. No, I will be taking the high road and presenting my picks just as they appeared then.

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