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Articles Tagged Predictions 

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07-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

04-04

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1

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-30

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5

BP Unfiltered: Beware of Bias in Predicted Team Win Totals
by
Jeffrey A. Friedman

03-28

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10

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
by
Doug Thorburn

02-19

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20

BP Unfiltered: 2013 32 Predictions Contest Results
by
Sky Kalkman

01-06

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2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-02

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 356: Bill James' Predictions for 2015, and Our Predictions for 2030
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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10

The Lineup Card: 15 Things We Were Wrong About This Year
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

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10

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team
by
Ken Funck

06-25

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 231: Revisiting Several Things We've Said
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-16

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9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

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9

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-29

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5

BP Unfiltered: Cats! Predicting! Baseball!
by
Jason Wojciechowski

03-29

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16

32 Predictions Contest
by
Sky Kalkman

03-18

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19

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout
by
Sam Miller

02-18

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24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-07

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3

Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?
by
Sam Miller

10-30

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels' Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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0

Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Predicted About Themselves
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-04

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-03

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9

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season
by
Sam Miller

09-18

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31

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational Rooting
by
Nick Piecoro

09-07

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 37: The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-09

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BP Unfiltered: Taking A Look At Our Preseason Predictions
by
Bradley Ankrom

03-27

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9

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

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10

Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!
by
Larry Granillo

12-31

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155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

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10

Prospectus Today: Predictions
by
Joe Sheehan

11-09

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0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

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0

Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

03-24

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2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

01-16

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0

PECOTA Takes on the Field
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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0

Breaking Balls: Forecasting the Future
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-12

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0

6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two
by
Gary Huckabay

03-31

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1

Prospectus Feature: American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

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0

Prospectus Feature: National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-08

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0

Still Here?
by
James Kushner

02-01

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0

The Prospectus Projections Project
by
David Cameron and Greg Spira

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BP staff take sides on the important issues of 2012.

Spring training is winding down, and Opening Day is within sight, which means it’s predictions time here at Baseball Prospectus. You can read our picks for the season's final standings and major award winners elsewhere, but we also polled our staff on several key themes relating to the upcoming season, including how Jesus Montero will spend his time in Seattle and whether the Marlins' poor attendance really was all about the ballpark in Miami. The results are here for your interpretation, and we invite you to choose your sides in the comments.

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The calendar has advanced, but baseball's probabilistic nature ensures that calling team win totals hasn't gotten much easier.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

With our depth charts and team projections up and running, now seems like a fitting time to repeat Keith's caveats about the inherent limitations of such worthwhile exercises, nearly six years after his words originally ran on March 24, 2005.


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A quick look at the postseason predictions of two of the biggest annual preview guides, including a look at their track record over the past two years.

An early focus of Wezen-Ball was on my collection of baseball preview magazines from over the years. You know the ones I’m talking about: they come out every January/February, just in time for Spring Training, and they preview each team for the upcoming year, usually including predictions for division finishes, playoff teams, and postseason awards. The major magazines over the last thirty years or so have been The Sporting News, Street & Smith’s, and Athlon Sports. I’d use my collection, which started when I bought the magazines new each year in the 1990s and continued back into the ‘70s when I started scrounging around eBay, to look at old predictions, old articles, and old, contemporary views of some of our favorite players. I mean, who doesn’t get a kick out of seeing this quote about Wade Boggs from 1982:

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Evaluating predictions for the season past, and closing the book on it.

Every year I try to project every team's record and runs scored and allowed, using as much information as is available to me in the waning days of March. I do it because it's fun, and because the process of making those predictions is very educational for me in the ramp-up to the season. The process, rather than the end results, is what is important, because the chance of getting many teams' overall records or run differentials correct is fairly slim. The value of the pieces I write at that time is in the analysis, the words; the numbers are for information purposes only.

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March 31, 2009 3:47 pm

Prospectus Today: Predictions

10

Joe Sheehan

Beating the kid at the dart board's not an acceptable standard for competence in predicting runs scored and allowed at the team level.

As baseball writers, analysts, and fans get set to lay out their predictions for the next six months, I find it useful to look back at last year and see what I can learn from the picks I made a season ago. I've been doing this exercise for a few years, and sometimes there are valuable lessons to be had. Sometimes, to be honest, there aren't. Baseball's funny that way.

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November 9, 2006 12:00 am

Predictatron Recap

0

Ben Murphy

BP's newest contest is taken down by a Twins fan.

Just as I did last year, I'm here to follow up the HACKING MASS Wrap with a look at this year's Predictatron results. This is the second year we've done the Predictatron contest, and it continues to be popular, for obvious reasons--trying to predict the order of finish and teams' eventual records is one of the oldest hobbies of baseball fans.

For those that haven't had the pleasure to compete, Predictatron is the annual contest at Baseball Prospectus where entrants can win $500 by predicting the total wins for each of the 30 major league teams, and the results of the playoffs. Basic scoring is set up so that everyone starts with 1000 points, and you lose points for every win you are off for each team; you can win points back with the playoffs. There are also a few wrinkles, like the Mortal Lock, so I'd encourage everyone to read the full rules.

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With the season at the halfway point, Ben Murphy has a look at how people made their Predictatron picks.

Before delving deeper, some of you might find it helpful to read up on these statistical terms (thanks to Wikipedia):

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March 24, 2005 12:00 am

2005--Setting the Stage

0

Keith Woolner

Keith Woolner continues our Setting the Stage series by looking at the randomness involved with predicting standings within a division.

However, I've often wondered just how accurate even the best predictions can be. We've written about predicting player performance before, so I am going to focus on predictions at the team level, namely the order of finish within a division.

An interesting aspect of the question is whether even perfect predictions of team quality can result in reliable predictions of standings. Is a 162-game season sufficiently long enough for competitive teams to differentiate themselves conclusively?

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January 16, 2004 12:00 am

PECOTA Takes on the Field

0

Nate Silver

Last year at this time, when we were first unveiling PECOTA, I was besieged with questions about the system's accuracy. From the very start, the system has always had its believers and its skeptics; all of them wanted to know whether the damn thing worked. My evasive answers to these questions must surely have seemed like a transparent bit of spin doctoring. One of my readers suggested to me, quite seriously, that I had a future in PR or politics. But I was convinced--and remain convinced--that a forecasting system should not be judged by its results alone. The method, too, is important, and PECOTA's methodology is sound. It presents information in a way that other systems don't, explicitly providing an error range for each of its forecasts--which, importantly, can differ for different types of players (rookies, for example, have a larger forecast range than veterans). Its mechanism of using comparable players to generate its predictions is, I think, a highly intuitive way to go about forecasting. Besides, all of the BP guys seemed to appreciate the system, and getting the bunch of us to agree on much of anything is an accomplishment in and of itself. Now that it has a season under its belt, however, we can do the good and proper thing and compare PECOTA against its competition.

Last year at this time, when we were first unveiling PECOTA, I was besieged with questions about the system's accuracy. From the very start, the system has always had its believers and its skeptics; all of them wanted to know whether the damn thing worked.

My evasive answers to these questions must surely have seemed like a transparent bit of spin doctoring. One of my readers suggested to me, quite seriously, that I had a future in PR or politics. But I was convinced--and remain convinced--that a forecasting system should not be judged by its results alone. The method, too, is important, and PECOTA's methodology is sound. It presents information in a way that other systems don't, explicitly providing an error range for each of its forecasts--which, importantly, can differ for different types of players (rookies, for example, have a larger forecast range than veterans). Its mechanism of using comparable players to generate its predictions is, I think, a highly intuitive way to go about forecasting. Besides, all of the BP guys seemed to appreciate the system, and getting the bunch of us to agree on much of anything is an accomplishment in and of itself.

Read the full article...

I love prediction season. Right now, every sports media outlet in the country is running endless NCAA brackets, bracket-picking advice, and studies of past bracket upset patterns--and while I'll take it, I'm still scouring baseball pages to see what writer was foolish enough to put his name to the fortunes of only 30 teams, predicting the outcome of the 2003 baseball season. We do it every year here at Prospectus, and getting my predictions is like trying to get me out of the bar before I've finished my beer.

I've done pretty well at this the last couple years, despite my yearly gut feeling that this is going to be the time I really, truly embarrass myself. I tend to be boring, and do a boring little estimation for each team where I guess best case (everyone's healthy, except for bad veterans, who have painless season-ending injuries, allowing cool rookies to have blockbuster seasons), normal case, and worst case (no one is healthy except for bad veterans), and then put 'em through the Riskotron 2000 to get a final number and compare that to their division. I try not to wish-cast, though that's still not necessarily a guarantee for success.

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As I explained last week, we asked the attendees at each Pizza Feed to predict the results of the divisional races this year, along with the World Series winner, major award winners, managerial firings, etc. This week, we'll take a look at the American League divisional races.

As I explained last week, we asked the attendees at each Pizza Feed to predict the results of the divisional races this year, along with the World Series winner, major award winners, managerial firings, etc. This week, we'll take a look at the American League divisional races. For each division, the average rank of each team is listed, along with the standard deviation for each team, which is a measure of how much variability there was for each team. The lower the deviation, the more agreement there is about that team's place in the standings.

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Our best guess at 2002's winners and losers.

American League Predictions

Baseball Prospectus 



American League East 


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