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Articles Tagged Predictions 

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04-08

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15

Fantasy Freestyle: Five Bold Predictions
by
Wilson Karaman

04-06

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16

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-03

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0

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-03

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11

Fantasy Staff Predictions
by
BP Fantasy Staff

07-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

04-04

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1

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-30

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5

BP Unfiltered: Beware of Bias in Predicted Team Win Totals
by
Jeffrey A. Friedman

03-28

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10

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
by
Doug Thorburn

02-19

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20

BP Unfiltered: 2013 32 Predictions Contest Results
by
Sky Kalkman

01-06

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2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-02

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 356: Bill James' Predictions for 2015, and Our Predictions for 2030
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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10

The Lineup Card: 15 Things We Were Wrong About This Year
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

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10

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team
by
Ken Funck

06-25

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 231: Revisiting Several Things We've Said
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-16

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9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

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9

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-29

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5

BP Unfiltered: Cats! Predicting! Baseball!
by
Jason Wojciechowski

03-29

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16

32 Predictions Contest
by
Sky Kalkman

03-18

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19

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout
by
Sam Miller

02-18

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24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-07

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3

Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?
by
Sam Miller

10-30

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels' Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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0

Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Predicted About Themselves
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-04

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-03

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9

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season
by
Sam Miller

09-18

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31

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational Rooting
by
Nick Piecoro

09-07

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 37: The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-09

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0

BP Unfiltered: Taking A Look At Our Preseason Predictions
by
Bradley Ankrom

03-27

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9

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

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10

Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!
by
Larry Granillo

12-31

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155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

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10

Prospectus Today: Predictions
by
Joe Sheehan

11-09

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0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

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0

Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

03-24

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0

2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

01-16

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0

PECOTA Takes on the Field
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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0

Breaking Balls: Forecasting the Future
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-12

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0

6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two
by
Gary Huckabay

03-31

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1

Prospectus Feature: American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

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0

Prospectus Feature: National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-08

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0

Still Here?
by
James Kushner

02-01

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0

The Prospectus Projections Project
by
David Cameron and Greg Spira

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July 18, 2013 6:04 am

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team

10

Ken Funck

The recent times that teams were right and we were wrong.

Here at Baseball Prospectus, one of our main jobs is to have opinions on just about every move made by every organization ever. Over the years, as the analytics revolution has spread throughout baseball—a process that amateur and semi-pro sabermetricians can take some credit for—the percentage of ridiculously unwise decisions that we can get all snarky about has been significantly reduced. Still, we do occasionally criticize a move, and even less occasionally, our opinions turn out to be wrong.

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Ben and Sam revisit some predictions and discussions from prior episodes to see how their thoughts have changed.

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Yankee magic is universal, as it turns out.

There’s a strange thing that happens to normally rational baseball writers when discussing the Yankees. People who would normally question every assumption and demand to see some empirical proof blindly believe that the Yankees have mastered the dark art of picking up past-their-prime players and restoring some of their former success. The only evidence is anecdotal, so we know we’re being naughty and going off the reservation, sabermetrically speaking. But like Luke Skywalker, we’ve searched our feelings, and we know it to be true. And we’re only kind of kidding.

When the Yankees traded for a struggling Ichiro Suzuki last July, The Great Grant Brisbee—after acknowledging the absurdity of what he was about to say—wrote this:

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All the stats about the 32 prediction contest ballots.

A total of 694 people entered the 32 Predictions contest, including Ben Lindbergh and me, but not including the nine of you who didn't leave a name and the 10 of you who entered after the deadline. Those weren't good strategies for winning.

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What if you let cats predict the season?

BP Alumnus Marc Normandin and I are cat-lovers. No, no, we're not cats who make out with each other. We have cats, and we love them. We're also, duh, baseball-lovers. What better way to combine our interests than to have our cats make their best guesses at who the winners of the 2013 season will be?

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March 29, 2013 5:00 am

32 Predictions Contest

16

Sky Kalkman

Put your predictive powers to the test.

This is the fifth year I’ve run this contest, but the first here at Baseball Prospectus. I stole the format from an old differential equations professor of mine, Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference, and heck, I might as well steal his directions, too (translated into baseball-speak):

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March 18, 2013 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout

19

Sam Miller

None of which will be proven wrong.

Everyone knows you can’t predict baseball. What this article presupposes is... maybe you can?

The first key to getting forecasts right is simply stating them in terms of likelihoods, and hoping nobody does the math on the long-term accuracy of such forecasts. As long as I give each prediction a greater than zero percent chance of happening and less than 100 percent chance of happening, I can’t be wrong. So let's go make some correct predictions!

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February 18, 2013 5:00 am

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles

24

Ben Lindbergh

We all missed on last year's Orioles and A's, so we're determined to see the next similar surprise team coming. But are we sure that one will?

“I know a lot of the national reporters say we’re going to finish last and lose a lot of games again. You know what? Oakland was supposed to be last [in the division] last year, Baltimore was supposed to be last, and they both ended up making the playoffs.” —Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, February 5.

Sometime between now and Opening Day—if you haven’t already—you’ll probably hear someone speculate about the surprise team(s) of 2013. Every spring, fans and analysts attempt to predict which teams will surpass the expectations of PECOTA and the pundits. Most of those predictions, of course, don’t come to pass. It’s tough to beat the stats, the oddsmakers, and the combined predictive powers of people who spend large chunks of their lives watching and reading and writing about baseball teams. Especially since some of the people who can beat the consensus consistently start publishing their predictions, the consensus becomes a bit better and harder to beat.

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You can't predict baseball, no matter how high-ranking you are.

The answer is they are smart. Come on guys, be serious. Of course they're smart. 

But...

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Ben and Sam discuss the decisions the Angels are about to make concerning Dan Haren and Ervin Santana and talk about what their 2013 rotation will look like, then predict 2013's division/World Series winners and last-place teams.

Ben and Sam discuss the decisions the Angels are about to make concerning Dan Haren and Ervin Santana and talk about what their 2013 rotation will look like, then predict 2013's division/World Series winners and last-place teams.

*Update* Yeah, we both forgot that the Astros are moving to the AL West next season.

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What every team predicted about itself before this season, and whether those predictions came true.

The end of the season is the time when writers revisit their pre-season predictions. Some look back hoping to discover that they said something smart, while others look back mostly to marvel at their own inaccuracy. (I picked the Orioles to finish where?) The most anyone aspires to is a bit better than an even split between smart and stupid.

But writers aren't the only knowledgeable people who make bad predictions about baseball. Team executives, coaches, and players do it, too. They do it implicitly every time they sign a player who gets hurt or plays poorly, but they also do it in the press. Sometimes they have a motive—to drum up interest in their teams or themselves, to appease players with fragile egos, to encourage or challenge or smooth over disputes. You'll never hear a general manager of a 60-win team say, "Man, we are going to be bad." Anything a player or team source says about the future is part prediction, part propaganda.

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Ben and Sam join/are joined by Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs for a longest-ever episode about the worst predictions teams and players made about themselves, Bryce Harper's historical significance, and the baseball players who led the league in our hearts in 2012. We talked for almost an hour, so adjust your commutes accordingly.

Ben and Sam join/are joined by Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs and FanGraphs Audio for a longest-ever episode about the worst predictions teams and players made about themselves this season, Bryce Harper's historical significance, and the players who led the league in our hearts in 2012. We talked for almost an hour, so adjust your commutes accordingly.

Episode 56: "A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio"

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