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Articles Tagged Predictions 

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04-04

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1

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-30

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5

BP Unfiltered: Beware of Bias in Predicted Team Win Totals
by
Jeffrey A. Friedman

03-28

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10

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
by
Doug Thorburn

02-19

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20

BP Unfiltered: 2013 32 Predictions Contest Results
by
Sky Kalkman

01-06

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2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-02

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 356: Bill James' Predictions for 2015, and Our Predictions for 2030
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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10

The Lineup Card: 15 Things We Were Wrong About This Year
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

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10

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team
by
Ken Funck

06-25

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 231: Revisiting Several Things We've Said
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-16

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9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

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9

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-29

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5

BP Unfiltered: Cats! Predicting! Baseball!
by
Jason Wojciechowski

03-29

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16

32 Predictions Contest
by
Sky Kalkman

03-18

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19

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout
by
Sam Miller

02-18

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24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-07

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3

Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?
by
Sam Miller

10-30

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels' Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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0

Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Predicted About Themselves
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-04

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-03

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9

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season
by
Sam Miller

09-18

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31

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational Rooting
by
Nick Piecoro

09-07

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 37: The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-09

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BP Unfiltered: Taking A Look At Our Preseason Predictions
by
Bradley Ankrom

03-27

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9

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

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10

Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!
by
Larry Granillo

12-31

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155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

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10

Prospectus Today: Predictions
by
Joe Sheehan

11-09

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0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

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0

Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

03-24

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0

2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

01-16

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0

PECOTA Takes on the Field
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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0

Breaking Balls: Forecasting the Future
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-12

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0

6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two
by
Gary Huckabay

03-31

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1

Prospectus Feature: American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

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0

Prospectus Feature: National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-08

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0

Still Here?
by
James Kushner

02-01

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0

The Prospectus Projections Project
by
David Cameron and Greg Spira

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March 29, 2013 5:00 am

32 Predictions Contest

16

Sky Kalkman

Put your predictive powers to the test.

This is the fifth year I’ve run this contest, but the first here at Baseball Prospectus. I stole the format from an old differential equations professor of mine, Doug Drinen of Pro-Football-Reference, and heck, I might as well steal his directions, too (translated into baseball-speak):

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March 18, 2013 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout

19

Sam Miller

None of which will be proven wrong.

Everyone knows you can’t predict baseball. What this article presupposes is... maybe you can?

The first key to getting forecasts right is simply stating them in terms of likelihoods, and hoping nobody does the math on the long-term accuracy of such forecasts. As long as I give each prediction a greater than zero percent chance of happening and less than 100 percent chance of happening, I can’t be wrong. So let's go make some correct predictions!

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February 18, 2013 5:00 am

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles

24

Ben Lindbergh

We all missed on last year's Orioles and A's, so we're determined to see the next similar surprise team coming. But are we sure that one will?

“I know a lot of the national reporters say we’re going to finish last and lose a lot of games again. You know what? Oakland was supposed to be last [in the division] last year, Baltimore was supposed to be last, and they both ended up making the playoffs.” —Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, February 5.

Sometime between now and Opening Day—if you haven’t already—you’ll probably hear someone speculate about the surprise team(s) of 2013. Every spring, fans and analysts attempt to predict which teams will surpass the expectations of PECOTA and the pundits. Most of those predictions, of course, don’t come to pass. It’s tough to beat the stats, the oddsmakers, and the combined predictive powers of people who spend large chunks of their lives watching and reading and writing about baseball teams. Especially since some of the people who can beat the consensus consistently start publishing their predictions, the consensus becomes a bit better and harder to beat.

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You can't predict baseball, no matter how high-ranking you are.

The answer is they are smart. Come on guys, be serious. Of course they're smart. 

But...

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Ben and Sam discuss the decisions the Angels are about to make concerning Dan Haren and Ervin Santana and talk about what their 2013 rotation will look like, then predict 2013's division/World Series winners and last-place teams.

Ben and Sam discuss the decisions the Angels are about to make concerning Dan Haren and Ervin Santana and talk about what their 2013 rotation will look like, then predict 2013's division/World Series winners and last-place teams.

*Update* Yeah, we both forgot that the Astros are moving to the AL West next season.

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What every team predicted about itself before this season, and whether those predictions came true.

The end of the season is the time when writers revisit their pre-season predictions. Some look back hoping to discover that they said something smart, while others look back mostly to marvel at their own inaccuracy. (I picked the Orioles to finish where?) The most anyone aspires to is a bit better than an even split between smart and stupid.

But writers aren't the only knowledgeable people who make bad predictions about baseball. Team executives, coaches, and players do it, too. They do it implicitly every time they sign a player who gets hurt or plays poorly, but they also do it in the press. Sometimes they have a motive—to drum up interest in their teams or themselves, to appease players with fragile egos, to encourage or challenge or smooth over disputes. You'll never hear a general manager of a 60-win team say, "Man, we are going to be bad." Anything a player or team source says about the future is part prediction, part propaganda.

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Ben and Sam join/are joined by Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs for a longest-ever episode about the worst predictions teams and players made about themselves, Bryce Harper's historical significance, and the baseball players who led the league in our hearts in 2012. We talked for almost an hour, so adjust your commutes accordingly.

Ben and Sam join/are joined by Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs and FanGraphs Audio for a longest-ever episode about the worst predictions teams and players made about themselves this season, Bryce Harper's historical significance, and the players who led the league in our hearts in 2012. We talked for almost an hour, so adjust your commutes accordingly.

Episode 56: "A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio"

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October 3, 2012 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season

9

Sam Miller

The Angels signed the best free-agent hitter and pitcher available, added the best rookie ever, and still missed the playoffs. Was it anyone's fault?

The day that the Angels introduced Vernon Wells, Arte Moreno told reporters the score:

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Can rational fans pull for fluky teams, or are we bound to support good process over unpredictability?

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Nick Piecoro is in his sixth season as a beat writer covering the Arizona Diamondbacks for ​The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. Once an all-glove, no-stick Little Leaguer, he grew up playing APBA games in the suburbs of Phoenix. If he’s not writing or talking or watching baseball, he’s probably listening to or watching or falling asleep to music, movies, or television shows. You can follow him on Twitter @nickpiecoro.

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Ben and Sam discuss the Tigers' predictably bad defense and the unpredictably bad Brandon Wood.

Ben and Sam discuss the Tigers' predictably bad defense and the unpredictably bad Brandon Wood.

Episode 37: "The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player"

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How are our 20 Questions predictions looking after the first two months of the season?

A lot of the questions posed in our preseason 20 Questions for 2012 piece have turned out to be fairly close, some hilariously so (see question numero uno). How are our predictions looking after the first two months of the season? (​Note: statistics are through games of June 8, 2012​)

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BP staff take sides on the important issues of 2012.

Spring training is winding down, and Opening Day is within sight, which means it’s predictions time here at Baseball Prospectus. You can read our picks for the season's final standings and major award winners elsewhere, but we also polled our staff on several key themes relating to the upcoming season, including how Jesus Montero will spend his time in Seattle and whether the Marlins' poor attendance really was all about the ballpark in Miami. The results are here for your interpretation, and we invite you to choose your sides in the comments.

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