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Articles Tagged Predictions 

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07-15

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: 10 Crazy Predictions Fantasy Writers Should Have Made
by
Mike Gianella

04-04

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1

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-30

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5

BP Unfiltered: Beware of Bias in Predicted Team Win Totals
by
Jeffrey A. Friedman

03-28

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10

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions
by
Doug Thorburn

02-19

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20

BP Unfiltered: 2013 32 Predictions Contest Results
by
Sky Kalkman

01-06

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2

Overthinking It: Testing the Predictive Powers of 2013 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-02

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2

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 356: Bill James' Predictions for 2015, and Our Predictions for 2030
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-30

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10

The Lineup Card: 15 Things We Were Wrong About This Year
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-18

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10

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team
by
Ken Funck

06-25

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 231: Revisiting Several Things We've Said
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-16

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9

Overthinking It: The Mystique and Aura of the Other 29 Teams
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-11

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9

BP Unfiltered: 32 Predictions Contest Response Summary
by
Sky Kalkman

03-29

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5

BP Unfiltered: Cats! Predicting! Baseball!
by
Jason Wojciechowski

03-29

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16

32 Predictions Contest
by
Sky Kalkman

03-18

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19

Pebble Hunting: Eight Predictions About Mike Trout
by
Sam Miller

02-18

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24

Overthinking It: Why There Probably Are No Next Orioles
by
Ben Lindbergh

11-07

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3

Pebble Hunting: Are GMs Smart or Not Smart?
by
Sam Miller

10-30

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4

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 72: How Many Members of the Angels' Rotation Will Be Back?/Predicting the First- and Last-Place Teams of 2013
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-11

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0

Overthinking It: What Teams and Players Predicted About Themselves
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-04

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7

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 56: A Very Special Simulpodcast with FanGraphs Audio
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-03

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9

Pebble Hunting: A Very Good Team and a Very Bad Season
by
Sam Miller

09-18

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31

Baseball ProGUESTus: The Agony of Rational Rooting
by
Nick Piecoro

09-07

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 37: The Tigers' Defense is What We Thought it Was/Brandon Wood and the Quad-A Player
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-09

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0

BP Unfiltered: Taking A Look At Our Preseason Predictions
by
Bradley Ankrom

03-27

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9

Pre-Season Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Randomness in Team Standings Predictions
by
Keith Woolner

02-02

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10

Wezen-Ball: The 2011 Preview Magazines Are Here!
by
Larry Granillo

12-31

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155

Prospectus Today: Retrospective on Runs and Records
by
Joe Sheehan

03-31

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10

Prospectus Today: Predictions
by
Joe Sheehan

11-09

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0

Predictatron Recap
by
Ben Murphy

07-11

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0

Predictatron Pontification
by
Ben Murphy

03-24

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0

2005--Setting the Stage
by
Keith Woolner

01-16

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0

PECOTA Takes on the Field
by
Nate Silver

03-20

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0

Breaking Balls: Forecasting the Future
by
Derek Zumsteg

04-12

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0

6-4-3: Noises from the Feedbag, Part Two
by
Gary Huckabay

03-31

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1

Prospectus Feature: American League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-30

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0

Prospectus Feature: National League Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-08

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0

Still Here?
by
James Kushner

02-01

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0

The Prospectus Projections Project
by
David Cameron and Greg Spira

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If you saw any of these outlandish things coming before the season started—well, you were right.

A popular preseason article topic for fantasy baseball writers is “10 Crazy Predictions.” These types of articles usually try to make wild predictions based on a somewhat logical premise. Typically, most of these predictions miss the mark, with perhaps one or two of them hitting the jackpot.

Truth is stranger than fiction, or so the old bromide goes. But every year, it never fails: Something happens that falls completely outside of the realm of anyone’s predictive powers, even for those who are trying to find outliers. Below is a non-inclusive listing of fantasy baseball events that no one in his or her right mind would have predicted in April that are absolute stunners.

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All of the stats about your 32 prediction contest ballots.

This year’s 32 Predictions contest had almost the exactly the same number of entries as last year’s, with 686. Forty-nine entries left at least one question blank, and 11 of you decided not to name your entry. (At least we can never make fun of you for it.)

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Are you overly optimistic about your favorite team?

Sam Miller and I recently interviewed 28 Baseball Prospectus 2014 authors as part of the Effectively Wild season preview podcast series. At the end of each episode, we asked our guest to predict the 2014 win total for the team we’d just talked about. Listener Jeffrey A. Friedman sent us the following unsolicited submission about bias in these predicted win totals, which we decided to publish with his permission. Beware of bias in your own predictions! —Ben Lindbergh

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March 28, 2014 11:22 am

Raising Aces: Out on a Limb: 2014 Pitcher Predictions

10

Doug Thorburn

What does Doug see ahead for selected pitchers in 2014?

Along with the rest of the BP staff, I’ve submitted my pre-season predictions for division standings and end-of-season award winners. I tend to stay in the neighborhood of likely outcomes for these picks, resulting in easy answers such as “Mike Trout for AL MVP” or “Tigers win the AL Central,” but I’m more intrigued by the long-shot stories that emerge once the season starts.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

How good were BP readers at predicting events last season?

The number have finally been crunched on the 2013 32 Predictions contest. Five entrants tied with 26 points, but with the earliest entry, Vitaly Vinar wins the tie-breaker. Congrats! Full results can be found here.

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Reviewing the many predictions teams and players made about themselves last season.

Hot Stove season is slowing, which means it’s almost time for team executives and players to start telling you how good they’re going to be in 2014. There are many reasons for teams and players to predict success: to sell tickets, to avoid 0.0 Nielsen ratings, to motivate themselves and their teammates. Most of the time, predicting success makes more sense than saying “We suck.”

We know that media members make many regrettable predictions: that the 2013 Red Sox would be boring, that Mike Trout wouldn’t be worth taking early in a fantasy draft, that the Angels and Blue Jays would win the West and the East. But anything a team might tell you is equally suspect. So just like last year, I’ve trawled the internet for predictions that teams and players made about themselves before the start of last season. The only condition was that there weren’t conditions—if we stay healthy, if we play up to our capabilities, etc. Only unqualified forecasts of future events could be counted—the stronger and more specific, the better.

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Ben and Sam review Bill James' old baseball predictions for 2015, then issue their own for 2030.

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The staff laments some of its poorest pre-season predictions.

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July 18, 2013 6:04 am

Changing Speeds: The All-Vindication Team

10

Ken Funck

The recent times that teams were right and we were wrong.

Here at Baseball Prospectus, one of our main jobs is to have opinions on just about every move made by every organization ever. Over the years, as the analytics revolution has spread throughout baseball—a process that amateur and semi-pro sabermetricians can take some credit for—the percentage of ridiculously unwise decisions that we can get all snarky about has been significantly reduced. Still, we do occasionally criticize a move, and even less occasionally, our opinions turn out to be wrong.

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Ben and Sam revisit some predictions and discussions from prior episodes to see how their thoughts have changed.

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Yankee magic is universal, as it turns out.

There’s a strange thing that happens to normally rational baseball writers when discussing the Yankees. People who would normally question every assumption and demand to see some empirical proof blindly believe that the Yankees have mastered the dark art of picking up past-their-prime players and restoring some of their former success. The only evidence is anecdotal, so we know we’re being naughty and going off the reservation, sabermetrically speaking. But like Luke Skywalker, we’ve searched our feelings, and we know it to be true. And we’re only kind of kidding.

When the Yankees traded for a struggling Ichiro Suzuki last July, The Great Grant Brisbee—after acknowledging the absurdity of what he was about to say—wrote this:

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All the stats about the 32 prediction contest ballots.

A total of 694 people entered the 32 Predictions contest, including Ben Lindbergh and me, but not including the nine of you who didn't leave a name and the 10 of you who entered after the deadline. Those weren't good strategies for winning.

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