Digging through the reader mailbag, and much more.
On the Podcast:
This week we dig through the mailbag and answer some listener questions—thanks for sending them in, keep it up! We talked about banked stats, projection systems, online data resources, and some pointers on how to handle trade negotiations. We also discuss potential buy and sell trade candidates in both leagues, with each of us highlighting a couple players of each kind in each league.
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The outcomes offer recommendations on 10 players in each league, then mock draft the 38th round on the podcast.
While the June supplemental draft is one of the annual highlights of the Scoresheet calendar, as the top Rule 4 draft picks get picked over by teams, May is probably the best chance to pick up some early breakouts and respond to trends. Here are our recommendations for the upcoming supplemental draft, again looking only at players still available in a majority of leagues. You may also want to review our April recommendations, as we still stand behind… well, most of them.
Don't forget the forgotten heroes of the sport's past.
My birthday was May 3rd. I'm 33 now. As I always do on my birthday, I turned dark. To quote Mitch Hedberg, “I bought a pack of carefree gum but it didn’t work, so I went back to pondering my own mortality.” So, while in Baltimore—I was cleared to travel in April—my wife and I went on a tour of cemeteries that included the grave sites of Edgar Allen Poe and John Wilkes Booth. When I Googled to see whom else was buried in those cemeteries, to my surprise many former ballplayers were laid to rest there, and long forgotten. It's amazing to me how long the lineage of baseball really goes. I went to the grave of Steve Brodie. Brodie was an outfielder for the Boston Beaneaters, St Louis Browns, the former Baltimore Orioles, New York Giants, and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The guy was a .300+ career hitter in 12 years and nobody on earth in my estimation has ever heard of him. Imagine what kind of attention a guy like that would get today. What kind of life would he have had if he'd been born a hundred years later, hit .300+ a hundred years later? The rotten luck of being born in the wrong century sucks. But to be there, to be reminded again that baseball's story began well over a century ago, blew my mind. It’s a fact we're all well aware of, but to actually physically touch a gravestone of someone who played a game that I work in is mind boggling. It made it real. It made me appreciate my own life even more.
On the podcast:
This week we sit down with Nate Stephens to talk about the season so far, touch upon his many teams, and highlight some players that have over- and underperformed compared to his expectations. Tune in for another excellent conversation with Nate!
The Outcomes review their preseason projections, and much more.
This week we reviewed our preseason projections for team wins, take stock of the bets between Jared and Ben, and discuss whether each team’s early performance is sustainable (and to what degree, and why we might think so).
We're excited to launch a new prospect podcast on Monday.
The Baseball Prospectus Prospect Team is proud to announce the launch of a new prospect-themed podcast. Raw Projection will be a lively, spirited debate on all aspects of the prospect landscape to be broadcast weekly alongside the current line of BP podcasts. This new endeavor will include two teams of hosts, alternating weeks to give listeners a fresh perspective in each episode. The first team will include Tucker Blair, Mauricio Rubio, Jr., and CJ Wittmann and the second team will include Chris Mellen and Jeff Moore. Each team will offer a unique sound and feel while keeping you up to speed on the prospect world, discussing reports, topics and events from around the minors, and generally causing trouble. Episodes will also include guest appearances from the rest of the prospect team as well as guests from within the baseball world.
This will truly be a group effort, highlighting our strength as a team covering the prospect world and keeping you entertained in the process.
The Outcomes run down players who might be available in your leagues based on Scoresheet-wide ownership data.
There probably isn’t a more foolhardy errand than mock drafting the 36th round of an already deep league, but no one said that we weren’t just the fools to do so. Here are a few players in each league worth considering so that you don’t just automatically pick the first Brazilian on a two-week hot streak who crosses your path.
The Outcomes celebrate the start of the season, answer reader questions, and discuss strategy.
It’s our 50th episode! We’re celebrating the start of the 2015 MLB season by answering reader questions, going through our draft results for our teams with an eye toward strategy for upgrading your team in season, talking about some of our favorite story lines for the year, and of course mentioning the best things we saw this week.
One of our reader questions is about converting defensive ratings to TAv (True Average) so that you can use the platoon splits for TAv and include defense.
The Outcomes discuss their picks and their strategy for building a team that achieves their goals.
Have you ever wondered why Scoresheet drafts are slow affairs, paced out over the course of a month? Wonder no more, as the Outcomes take you through the draft of one of Scoresheet's flagship leagues, BL DwMurphy. This league, now in its 19th year, has a few special rules—there are only eight optional keepers, there is only one minor-league protection spot, everyone is eligible for the draft (meaning you, me, and your favorite Cuban/Japanese/college sleeper), and, oh yeah, the draft takes place live over one day. You can visit Brian Dewberry-Jones' lovingly maintained DwMurphy page for a complete history, and to meet some of the illustrious present and past participants.
Clocking in at a healthy 9 1/2 hours, more than 700 players were drafted in this deep, grueling league. Traditionally, drafts take place in person, in San Francisco, but the Outcomes discuss their draft from a remote setup in bucolic Michigan, as they slowly descend into madness. Along the way, they provide insight on building a team and achieving goals, interview a competitor, and try to keep their spirits high. For those who love to follow along, final rosters are now available on the Scoresheet DwMurphy League page. The Outcomes ask you: how did we—er, we mean, they—do?
The Outcomes spotlight one player from each team whose value could change between now and May.
We’re just as excited as anyone that Opening Day is fast approaching, but we also want to be careful not to overrate its importance for Scoresheet. There’s no guarantee that a player who makes the roster for day one will stick around come May. So here, we list a player we’ll be monitoring on each NL team (we went through the AL last week). Some of these guys are in position battles that potentially won’t be resolved for months. Others are finally getting an opportunity for consistent playing time. And a third group need to find that final gear to achieve (Scoresheet) stardom. Or at least be worthy of a keeper slot.
The Outcomes discuss the junior-circuit position battles they're keeping an eye on this spring.
We’re just as excited as anyone that Opening Day is fast approaching, but we also want to be careful not to overrate its importance for Scoresheet. There’s no guarantee that a player who makes the roster for day one will stick around come May. So here, we list a player we’ll be monitoring on each AL team. Some of these guys are in position battles that potentially won’t be resolved for months. Others are finally getting an opportunity for consistent playing time. And a third group need to find that final gear to achieve (Scoresheet) stardom. Or at least be worthy of a keeper slot.
Baltimore Orioles: Kevin Gausman
We tend to argue against the value of pitching prospects in Scoresheet, and to date, Gausman has been a clear example of exuberance clouding judgment. Scoresheet owners have been expecting to build around Gausman, but to do so, he’ll have to take a leap soon, because as it currently stands, he projects to be a walk-prone back end starter who probably shouldn’t make a playoff rotation. A strong 2015 would go a long way to making him the franchise cornerstone that you may have expected.