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Articles Tagged Playoff Rotations 

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08-22

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 26: The Return of Brett Anderson, Oakland's Playoff Rotation, and the Financial Future of Stephen Drew
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-19

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23

World Series Prospectus: The Midwest Showdown
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-29

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Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations
by
R.J. Anderson

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

08-22

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10

Divide and Conquer, NL East: Playoff Matchups Shaping Up
by
Michael Jong

08-11

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2

Overthinking It: Justin Time
by
Ben Lindbergh

07-25

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12

Divide and Conquer, NL East: Potential Post-Season Impact Players
by
Michael Jong

07-11

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6

Divide and Conquer, NL East: Pitching Dominance
by
Michael Jong

09-29

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11

Prospectus Perspective: Front Fours
by
Christina Kahrl

10-04

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3

It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
by
Christina Kahrl

09-24

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17

Fab Fours
by
Christina Kahrl

09-09

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11

Checking the Numbers: A Giant Run-Scoring Problem
by
Eric Seidman

07-20

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56

Ahead in the Count: Get the Doctor, Now!
by
Matt Swartz

05-27

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11

Transaction of the Day: Peavy Planning
by
Christina Kahrl

10-03

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Playoff Prospectus: Rockies versus Phillies
by
Christina Kahrl

09-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Contenders' Rotations
by
Nate Silver

10-01

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Locking it Up
by
Mike Carminati

09-27

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Lies, Damned Lies: Playoff Hurlers
by
Nate Silver

10-01

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Prelude to the Playoffs
by
Dave Haller

10-04

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Can Of Corn: Starting Pitching in the Postseason
by
Dayn Perry

07-04

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Doctoring The Numbers: Great Young Rotations
by
Rany Jazayerli

07-08

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Bullpens: The Last Word
by
Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner

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Ben and Sam talk about Brett Anderson's Tuesday return from Tommy John surgery and its impact on Oakland's potential playoff rotation, then discuss whether Stephen Drew would be wise to test the free-agent market this winter in light of the other shortstops available.

Ben and Sam talk about Brett Anderson's Tuesday return from Tommy John surgery and its impact on Oakland's potential playoff rotation, then discuss whether Stephen Drew would be wise to test the free-agent market this winter in light of the other shortstops available.

Effectively Wild Episode 26: "The Return of Brett Anderson, Oakland's Playoff Rotation, and the Financial Future of Stephen Drew"

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Sizing up every facet of each contender in this season's Fall Classic.

The Breakdown

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September 29, 2011 9:00 am

Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations

0

R.J. Anderson

Going team by team to determine which collection of hurlers is most imposing this October.

Nate Silver spent the final week of September 2006 evaluating playoff rotations in a manner reflected in his other work across various fields. The analysis was intuitive, yet innovative and unrivaled. What Silver incorporated that basic playoff rotation analyses often exclude is uneven workloads. Playoff teams may designate four starters, but they shift parts around due to the sporadic schedule and threat of extinction; after all, if a loss makes elimination inevitable, logic dictates having the best man lead the final surge.

The usage numbers Silver presented then are now dated, but the ones provided below are not, thanks to intern Bradley Ankrom. These new percentages include every postseason series since 1995, classifying the starters’ roles by their order of appearance in the playoffs. That means the number ones are the pitchers who started the team’s first playoff game, the number twos are those who started the team’s second playoff game, and so on. Some may note that this methodology may be skewed by the new playoff schedule, although until proven otherwise it should still provide more context than other tactics.

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September 9, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble

4

Jay Jaffe

While there is a confusing starting rotation picture for the AL playoff contenders, the NL is much clearer.

With the matter of the playoff participants in both leagues largely settled, on Wednesday I examined the unsettled nature of the playoff rotations of the likely AL representatives. As I showed, each has a considerable amount of unfinished business with regards to identifying their front four, with injuries and matchup issues both playing a part, and there's relatively little separation between the four, at least according to a quick and dirty measure I nabbed from Nate Silver's back pages. By comparison, the NL teams have much less uncertainty as to who will be taking the ball, and much more certainty about whom the fairest of them all is, at least when it comes to post-season rotations.

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A look at the three most likely playoff series in the National League, all involving teams from the NL East.

There are not many playoff races of interest remaining this season. Despite a tight AL East race between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, both teams are almost a lock to make the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report. A similar case has arisen in NL East, and indeed in the National League in general. Aside from the NL West race, the remaining three playoff spots are well in-hand given our expectations of the teams involved. The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers have all but wrapped up their divisions with 100 and 95.5 percent odds of making it in according to their PECOTA projections. And while the Atlanta Braves may only hold a five-game edge on the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card, they stand at an 87.8 percent chance to win the fourth playoff spot.

Presuming everyone plays as expected (and the “that's why the play the games” saying appears here as a warning that this does not always happen), the NL East teams have little to look forward to in the regular season; play out their games as expected and they should end up as two of the top contenders to represent the National League in the World Series. What sort of competition are they facing? Let us look ahead to the currently projected potential playoff matchups between the NL East division representatives and their likely opponents.
 


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August 11, 2011 12:44 pm

Overthinking It: Justin Time

2

Ben Lindbergh

Can the Tigers make and succeed in the playoffs by virtue of Verlander alone?

Baseball isn’t tailored to individual exploits; batting orders and starting rotations reduce the impact that any one player can make, and teams have only limited control of when a player’s appearances occur. Nonetheless, at times this season it’s seemed as though Justin Verlander has put Detroit on his proverbial back. The Tigers, who currently hold a two-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central, have won 68 percent of their games started by Verlander this season; with anyone else but Verlander on the mound, they’ve been a sub-.500 team.

The big righty hasn’t just been excellent, posting a 16-5 record and a 2.30 ERA and trailing only Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, and Cliff Lee among pitchers with 4.5 Wins Above Replacement, he’s also been one of the hardest-working men in baseball: his 2952 total pitches and 118.3 average pitches per start are tops in the majors, and among regular starters, only he and Jered Weaver have yet to throw 100 pitches or fewer in an outing. What’s more, those long outings haven’t seemed to take a toll on his arm: Verlander’s four-seamer has averaged 95.4 miles per hour in the ninth inning, even faster than its recorded speed in the first.

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Michael looks at five players who could play a large role in the post-season chances of an MLB team.

Two teams in the NL East are currently in the thick of a division race, while the three other clubs are hovering close to a .500 record with little chance of making it to the playoffs; the Playoff Odds Report has the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves as very good bets to make the postseason while the New York Mets, Washington Nationals, and Florida Marlins each have less than a one percent chance to be playing in October. Still, all of these teams may yet have a player that could still have an impact on a playoff race, whether it is the NL East division race or a stretch run elsewhere. This week, let us take a look at one player on each team who could have a significant impact on his team’s (or another team's) chances at a playoff berth.

Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Oswalt, Starting Pitcher
Oswalt threw a simulated game on Friday and may be ready to begin a rehab start in the minors this upcoming week. He has been out since June 24 with a bulging vertebral disk and lower back inflammation. The Phillies should not really sweat Oswalt's regular season return, though, as their chances of making the playoffs are almost a certainty; they hold the best record in baseball and have a five-game lead on the team in Atlanta. The Playoff Odds Report has the Phillies as essentially a lock for the playoffs, putting them at a 99.1 percent chance of making the postseason. PECOTA projects that the difference between Oswalt and a fifth-starter type like the intriguing Vance Worley or the dreaded Kyle Kendrick over the nine or ten starts remaining in the regular season is likely to be a little more than one WARP, which would, at most, amount to part of the difference between the Phillies getting home field advantage in the National League Championship Series or not. Right now, Baseball Prospectus's projections have the Phillies finishing four games ahead of the San Francisco Giants, so that one win may ultimately not matter much.


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July 11, 2011 9:54 pm

Divide and Conquer, NL East: Pitching Dominance

6

Michael Jong

Michael tests conventional wisdom and examines whether the pitching in the NL East is superior to the Central and West.

In last week's edition of Divide and Conquer, there was some controversy when Derek Lowe's name was brought up among the league leaders in WARP this season. This line of thinking got me examining the WARP totals for all of the division's finest pitchers. Dubious as the Lowe-for-WARP-leader campaign may be, it turns out (rather unsurprisingly) that the NL East as a whole is running out some of the best starting rotations in all of baseball, even when viewed through different lenses.
 

The NL East Starters
Here is how the NL East's five teams stack up in terms of three pitching statistics of interest: ERA, SIERA, and Baseball Prospectus's Fair Run Average (FRA), explained here. The five pitchers who have made the most starts for each team were selected and these are their results:



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September 29, 2010 8:00 am

Prospectus Perspective: Front Fours

11

Christina Kahrl

Selecting the four starters for the nine possible playoff teams is easier in some instances than others.

Last Friday, I brought up the Reds' rotation situation as they gear up for their first post-season series since 1995. We can't peg everyone's rotations perfectly just yet, of course, because there are still a few issues to resolve—which two teams from among the Braves, Giants, and Padres will join the Reds and Phillies in next week's action, for example, set against the much less exciting proposition over who is going to win home-field advantage in the AL.

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The postscript on the stretch races of 2007, and how remarkable the blown leads and late-season successes of that year were compared to history's most epic collapses.

Given the peril the Tigers' season is in, it seems appropriate for us to bring this back to provide a sense of the history of epic collapses. This was the new chapter that was supposed to go into the paperback edition of It Ain't Over, but for reasons only the publisher can adequately explain, it didn't get inserted. Given that we've got a great race in play once again, here's what you missed.

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September 24, 2009 12:20 pm

Fab Fours

17

Christina Kahrl

Shifting over to the short season means that team's frontline starting pitchers will be on the spot.

Using Support-Neutral Winning Percentage to describe which team's starters have done the most to produce victory for their teams makes ranking the best playoff rotations a relatively straightforward exercise. Here are rotations ranked by unit-wide performances on the year, using the expected 2009 playoff teams, and ranked by SNWP and SNLVAR, which adjusts for lineup variations and value-added over replacement level.

Team SNWP SNLVAR Cardinals .535 22.5 Dodgers .534 22.5 Rockies .515 19.8 Phillies .511 19.5 Tigers .511 18.4 Red Sox .503 17.7 Angels .499 15.8 Yankees .492 15.5 Twins .492 14.8

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September 9, 2009 11:57 am

Checking the Numbers: A Giant Run-Scoring Problem

11

Eric Seidman

How historically wide is the difference between the greatness of the Giants' rotation and the horrors of their hitting?

In what may amount to a playoff matchup come October, the San Francisco Giants beat the Philadelphia Phillies last week by a score of 5-3. A good ballgame by the sound of it, right? Wrong, because that 5-3 score constituted the run-scoring of the entire three-game series, two of which the Giants lost. The Giants are no strangers to run prevention, with a starting staff that ranks amongst the best in baseball. While some of their pitchers' peripherals portend less success moving forward, that does not mean we can simply write off data to date as fraudulent or nonexistent. This season, their starting rotation has for the most part been able to make do with two or three runs of support in a game, a range that has unfortunately become the norm for an anemic offense largely comprised of over-the-hill veterans and young players without much upside. Outside of Pablo Sandoval, the lineup appears to be allergic to league-average production, scoring an awful aggregate 3.95 runs per game. Yet somehow and some way, they are no further than two games back in the National League's Wild Card standings, and have a realistic shot of qualifying for post-season play. With this in mind, where does this Giants team rank relative to other no-hit/all-pitch teams? And, more to the point: how have teams in similar composition generally fared, especially relative to their potential playoff prospects?

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