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Articles Tagged Playoff Rotation 

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09-18

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 44: Sizing Up the Giants' Starters/Rooting for Run Differential
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

02-22

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28

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
Derek Carty and Michael Jong

02-20

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19

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

09-29

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Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations
by
R.J. Anderson

09-09

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4

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

09-07

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Post-Season Rotation Ramble
by
Jay Jaffe

08-22

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10

Divide and Conquer, NL East: Playoff Matchups Shaping Up
by
Michael Jong

07-27

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24

The Lineup Card: 17 Favorite Midseason Trades
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-13

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21

Checking the Numbers: The Questionable Pursuit of Garza
by
Eric Seidman

11-02

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1

Analyze This: How the Rangers were Acquired, Part II
by
Jesse Behr

10-06

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46

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

10-05

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9

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers
by
Ben Lindbergh

09-27

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Beasterly
by
Jay Jaffe

09-24

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23

Checking the Numbers: Examining the Braves' Decision
by
Eric Seidman

09-09

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5

Prospectus Hit List: NL: Trouble at the Top
by
Jay Jaffe

07-02

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7

Transaction Action: Dealing and Decapitating
by
Christina Kahrl

02-04

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30

Ahead in the Count: Revising Player Contract Valuation, Part 3
by
Matt Swartz

10-12

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3

Prospectus Hit List: Season Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

10-04

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3

It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over
by
Christina Kahrl

09-25

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19

Prospectus Hit List: Nearly All Wrapped Up
by
Jay Jaffe

09-09

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11

Checking the Numbers: A Giant Run-Scoring Problem
by
Eric Seidman

09-04

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7

Prospectus Hit List: Hit Parade
by
Jay Jaffe

07-29

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24

Prospectus Hit and Run: Today is No Halladay
by
Jay Jaffe

07-27

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24

Prospectus Today: Going For It
by
Joe Sheehan

07-14

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19

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Flatliners
by
Jay Jaffe

06-17

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: Conquering the Cubs
by
Jay Jaffe

05-17

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32

Prospectus Idol Entry: Tim Kniker's Initial Entry
by
Tim Kniker

08-15

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Prospectus Hit List: Streaks and Strings
by
Jay Jaffe

08-14

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Transaction Analysis: AL Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

04-06

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Nippon Prospectus
by
Mike Plugh

10-07

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Prospectus Hit List: Season Wrap-up
by
Jay Jaffe

09-22

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Prospectus Hit List: AL Supremacy Edition
by
Marc Normandin

09-07

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Prospectus Hit List: September Song
by
Jay Jaffe

09-03

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Lies, Damned Lies: The Contenders' Rotations
by
Nate Silver

08-09

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Nippon Prospectus
by
Mike Plugh

07-28

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Transaction Analysis: Swaps and Moves
by
Christina Kahrl

07-26

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Transaction Analysis: American League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

07-16

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Transaction Analysis: National League Roundup
by
Christina Kahrl

07-13

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Prospectus Hit List: Friday the 13th Edition
by
Jay Jaffe

04-15

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Transaction Analysis: Opening Day to April 14, 2007
by
Christina Kahrl

10-04

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of October 2
by
Jay Jaffe

09-27

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Lies, Damned Lies: Playoff Hurlers
by
Nate Silver

09-26

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of September 26
by
Jay Jaffe

08-28

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Transaction Analysis: August 25-27
by
Christina Kahrl

08-24

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Prospectus Today: The Dirty Dozen
by
Joe Sheehan

08-15

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Transaction Analysis: August 10-14
by
Christina Kahrl

08-07

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Transaction Analysis: August 4-7, 2006
by
Christina Kahrl

08-04

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Transaction Analysis: July 31-August 3
by
Christina Kahrl

07-25

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Prospectus Hit List: July 25
by
Marc Normandin

07-12

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Prospectus Hit List: Week of July 9
by
Jay Jaffe

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Ben and Sam discuss the Giants' starting rotation and decide what it would take to trust Barry Zito, then talk about how they decide which teams to root for.

Ben and Sam discuss the Giants' starting rotation and decide what it would take to trust Barry Zito, then talk about how they decide which teams to root for. 

Episode 44: "Sizing Up the Giants' Starters/Rooting for Run Differential"

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February 22, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: NL East 2012 Preseason Preview

28

Derek Carty and Michael Jong

Roundtable discussion of the pressing questions facing the NL East teams as we approach the start of the season

1) After a disappointing sophomore campaign, what can we expect of Jason Heyward going forward?
MJ:
Jason Heyward had an injury-riddled sophomore season in Atlanta, but there is a lot to like about his chances at a rebound campaign in 2012. His offensive line was deflated by a .260 BABIP, but his peripherals were once again stellar. His 11.6 percent walk rate represented a regression from 2010 but cannot be considered poor, and his .162 ISO likewise dropped from the previous year but did not experience a precipitous fall.


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February 20, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview

19

R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

Roundtable discussion of the most pressing issues facing each AL East team entering Spring Training

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4







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September 29, 2011 9:00 am

Painting the Black: Sizing Up the Playoff Rotations

0

R.J. Anderson

Going team by team to determine which collection of hurlers is most imposing this October.

Nate Silver spent the final week of September 2006 evaluating playoff rotations in a manner reflected in his other work across various fields. The analysis was intuitive, yet innovative and unrivaled. What Silver incorporated that basic playoff rotation analyses often exclude is uneven workloads. Playoff teams may designate four starters, but they shift parts around due to the sporadic schedule and threat of extinction; after all, if a loss makes elimination inevitable, logic dictates having the best man lead the final surge.

The usage numbers Silver presented then are now dated, but the ones provided below are not, thanks to intern Bradley Ankrom. These new percentages include every postseason series since 1995, classifying the starters’ roles by their order of appearance in the playoffs. That means the number ones are the pitchers who started the team’s first playoff game, the number twos are those who started the team’s second playoff game, and so on. Some may note that this methodology may be skewed by the new playoff schedule, although until proven otherwise it should still provide more context than other tactics.

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September 9, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: NL Post-Season Rotation Ramble

4

Jay Jaffe

While there is a confusing starting rotation picture for the AL playoff contenders, the NL is much clearer.

With the matter of the playoff participants in both leagues largely settled, on Wednesday I examined the unsettled nature of the playoff rotations of the likely AL representatives. As I showed, each has a considerable amount of unfinished business with regards to identifying their front four, with injuries and matchup issues both playing a part, and there's relatively little separation between the four, at least according to a quick and dirty measure I nabbed from Nate Silver's back pages. By comparison, the NL teams have much less uncertainty as to who will be taking the ball, and much more certainty about whom the fairest of them all is, at least when it comes to post-season rotations.

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September 7, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: AL Post-Season Rotation Ramble

7

Jay Jaffe

While the playoff picture may be clear, those who will take the mound in each game are not.

When Josh Beckett hobbled off the mound with an ankle sprain during the fourth inning of Monday's start, he added an unwelcome layer of suspense to Boston's championship aspirations. Not that the Sox are in danger of missing the playoffs without him; their chance of bonus baseball stood at 99.7 percent even after losing extra innings. For all of the team's strengths, including its formidable offense and late-game bullpen, Beckett's sprain—which will cost him at least one start—spotlights the unsettled nature of the Red Sox’ October rotation.

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A look at the three most likely playoff series in the National League, all involving teams from the NL East.

There are not many playoff races of interest remaining this season. Despite a tight AL East race between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, both teams are almost a lock to make the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report. A similar case has arisen in NL East, and indeed in the National League in general. Aside from the NL West race, the remaining three playoff spots are well in-hand given our expectations of the teams involved. The Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers have all but wrapped up their divisions with 100 and 95.5 percent odds of making it in according to their PECOTA projections. And while the Atlanta Braves may only hold a five-game edge on the San Francisco Giants for the Wild Card, they stand at an 87.8 percent chance to win the fourth playoff spot.

Presuming everyone plays as expected (and the “that's why the play the games” saying appears here as a warning that this does not always happen), the NL East teams have little to look forward to in the regular season; play out their games as expected and they should end up as two of the top contenders to represent the National League in the World Series. What sort of competition are they facing? Let us look ahead to the currently projected potential playoff matchups between the NL East division representatives and their likely opponents.
 


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As the trade deadline approaches, the BP Gang looks back at their favorite summer swaps in baseball history.

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January 13, 2011 2:27 pm

Checking the Numbers: The Questionable Pursuit of Garza

21

Eric Seidman

The Cubs didn't necessarily need to empty their farm to acquire another starter.

When news broke last week that the Cubs had acquired Matt Garza from the Rays I sarcastically suggested that the NL Central was all but locked up. Garza is certainly a quality pitcher, but the deal in which he, Fernando Perez, and Zachary Rosscup were sent to the Cubs in exchange for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee, and Sum Fuld struck me as being one-sided, and not from a talent perspective. No, I considered the deal to favor one side based on the idea of a team recognizing its situation and acting accordingly. The Rays, looking to cut costs, capitalized on the thin nature of the free-agent market by surrendering a better pitcher than was available. Garza was not going to be a key component to their success, and the emergence of Jeremy Hellickson provided a surplus of starters. The Cubs, however, struggled with more than their rotation over the last few seasons yet felt compelled to trade four of their top prospects for a mid-rotation starter. Many have chimed in on which team “won” the deal, but what isn’t being discussed enough is the rationale of the Cubs in a transaction like this and whether their goals could have been achieved by other means.

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November 2, 2010 12:34 am

Analyze This: How the Rangers were Acquired, Part II

1

Jesse Behr

How the Rangers acquired their pitching staff.

While the San Francisco Giants celebrate their first World Series championship since heading out west, the Texas Rangers will continue their quest for their first title in 2011. The team has the foundation to keep winning, but a lot will depend on “the winter decision,” Cliff Lee style. Armed with a superb farm system and youngsters to fill gaps, they have plenty of options. Let’s see how the 2010 pitching corps was formed:

Draft Picks

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October 6, 2010 12:30 pm

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale

46

Jay Jaffe

One last ranking of all 30 major league teams in 2010, from the Yankees to the Pirates.

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October 5, 2010 8:00 am

Playoff Prospectus: ALDS Preview: Rays vs. Rangers

9

Ben Lindbergh

One of the beasts of the East takes on the Rangers in a first-round clash of division winners.

In hindsight, the titans of the East were what we thought they were, even if a rash of injuries ensured that the Red Sox weren’t always whom we thought they were. As expected, eastern teams have called dibs on two of the AL’s four coveted tickets to the promised land, though no asses were crowned until the season’s final weekend, when the Rays nabbed the title by taking two out of three in Kansas City while the Yankees dropped a pair in Boston. Tampa Bay’s second division championship was won with an even smaller margin of error than the first, but the small-market-team-that-could again proved that it belonged in a bracket formerly dominated by high-payroll organizations—though this year’s Rays had to expend significantly more salary than the 2008 model in the process.

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