CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Articles Tagged Playoff Odds 

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns


Article Types

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries

Playoff Odds Graphs are now available

If you frequent our Playoff Odds Report, you may have noticed that we have added graphs that show each team's daily playoff odds.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

May 22, 2015 6:00 am

Rubbing Mud: The Quarter-Season Odds Report


Matthew Trueblood

Painting a table of how the season's expectations have changed.

Our lives are ruled by probabilities. All things are possible, and the varying degrees of possibility of various things govern everything from our decisions to our dispositions. Often, we’re too preoccupied by our preoccupations to look forward very far, but the truth is that few events in our lives sneak up on us. Conscious or subconscious, perceptions of the likelihood of important events inform our mood, our priorities and our choices.

Sports fandom is a unique sliver of life, though, in which those probabilities aren’t floating whispers in the background. We’re constantly reevaluating them, recalculating and recalibrating them. Even in baseball, the sport of the long season, we look for significance in every win and every loss. We try to gauge the impact of everything we see, not only in the context of the game or the series at hand, but in the big picture. That’s why spirited fans so often seem to agonize over every pitch: it affects our perception of our team’s chances in the long run, and that affects our sense of well-being about our entire investment in the team. The effect of those small things is minute, compared to what we perceive it to be, but baseball is bedeviling. It lures us into the sense of constant cataclysm that characterizes the NFL, even though the moments that really matter as much as the outcome of any given NFL game happen perhaps once a month.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Cancel anytime.

That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

With the playoffs coming, tracking the chances each team has to win becomes a daily sport, aided by the Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds feature.

Playoff odds are based on three things:

1. Playing time estimates for each player for the rest of the season (as found in the Depth Charts).

Read the full article...

Ben and Sam discuss which teams have seen their chances of making the playoffs change the most since Opening Day.

Read the full article...

Our playoff odds simulated the season 50,000 times. In 1.3 percent of those simulations, the Astros made the playoffs. How the heck?

“If the Astros win 70 there might be a celestial event that has never been seen before.” —BP reader Old Bopper, here.


Read the full article...

We likely already know who is going to make the playoffs. Is there still reason to watch?

This will be painful for some of you, but cast your mind back, if you can, to the baseball standings as they looked a year ago today. Behold: a wondrous world where the White Sox are in first place, the Giants are 16 games over .500, the Nationals are the best team in baseball, and the Orioles are a half-game up on the Rays for the second AL Wild Card spot (like that will last). The names of some of the teams at the top look strange, in light of what’s transpired this season, but I spy something even stranger: pennant races. Pennant races, as far as the eye can see.

On the morning of August 30, 2012, five of the six divisions had separations of five games or fewer between first and second place. Only in the NL Central, where the Reds had an eight-game lead over St. Louis and a nine-game cushion over the collapsing Pirates, was the division title all but awarded. According to our Playoff Odds Report for that day, there were four teams with playoff percentages of over 95 percent: the Reds, the Nats, the Rangers, and the Yankees. But there were a few tiers of lesser, but still strong contenders below that: the Braves and White Sox (oops) over 80 percent; the Cardinals, at just over 60 percent; the Tigers, Rays, and A’s between 50 and 60; the Angels, Pirates, and Dodgers clustered right around 30. And the odds weren’t buying the run differential-defying Orioles, whom PECOTA gave a 20 percent chance to claim the Wild Card they eventually won. In other words, there was an awful lot still at stake.

Read the full article...

Ben, Sam, and guest Zachary Levine mull over four questions about Miguel Cabrera, then talk about the World Series odds of the Tigers and other teams.

Read the full article...

Have we been underrating big-market, high-payroll teams?

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the distribution of team wins, and the discovery that the distribution may in fact be bimodal, not normal as one might expect.

One of the predictions that came from this theory was that teams right at .500 would, counterintuitively, tend to regress away from the mean. So one thing we can do is actually check to see if the real world behaves the way we expect it to. I took all teams from 1969 on with even numbers of games and split them into “halves” of even-number games. I use scare-quotes for halves since in order to boost the sample size, I split into increments of two and kept any pair where both “halves” were within 20 games of each other. Then I looked at teams that were exactly .500 in the “before” sample— 716 teams total—and saw what they did afterward:The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

Now with new features, including each team's odds of advancing to the Division Series and winning the World Series.

Today, we’re launching the first iteration of our Playoff Odds Report for 2013.

Before we get underway, some notes. PECOTA does not hate your favorite team. PECOTA is a collection of algorithms, written in computer code and run by an unfeeling machine. It cannot hate, or love. It can do only what it is told to do, nothing more or less.

Read the full article...

BP announces a new partnership with MLB Advanced Media.

Baseball Prospectus and Major League Baseball Advanced Media have partnered to present our playoff probabilities to a new audience at MLB.com. To see the second home of the playoff probabilities, go to MLB.com, click on Standings, and navigate to the Postseason Probabilities tab. There you'll find some of the same stats you're used to seeing on our Playoff Odds Report: each team's chances of winning a division title or a wild card, as well as its overall chances of making the postseason. If you'd like to see the probabilities for any other day during the season, just select the date you want from the calendar on the upper left or use the arrows to go back or advance by one day at a time. 

Read the full article...

Ben and Sam discuss the impact of CC Sabathia's elbow soreness on the Yankees' short- and long-term outlooks, and the difference between winning a division and winning a wild card under the new playoff format.

Ben and Sam discuss the impact of CC Sabathia's elbow soreness on the Yankees' short- and long-term outlooks, and the difference between winning a division and winning a wild card under the new playoff format.

Effectively Wild Episode 19: "Scraping Ice"

Read the full article...

It's time to talk about the Texas Rangers.

Effectively Wild Episode 3: "Thunder"

Download Here (12 MB; 12:45)
RSS Feed
iTunes Feed

Read the full article...

<< Previous Tag Entries No More Tag Entries