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Articles Tagged Player Ballot 

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01-16

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22

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Keltner All-Stars, Part II
by
Jay Jaffe

01-13

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61

Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in Motion
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

01-13

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Keltner All Stars, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

01-12

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19

Inside The Park: Remembering Minnie
by
Bradford Doolittle

01-10

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28

Prospectus Hit and Run: Barry, Black Jack, and the Big Ballot Surges
by
Jay Jaffe

01-04

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Catch-All
by
Jay Jaffe

01-02

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21

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Outfielders, Part I
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close
by
Jay Jaffe

12-28

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42

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The First Basemen
by
Jay Jaffe

12-22

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13

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Can We Just Stick Edgar in the Corner?
by
Jay Jaffe

12-19

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18

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Middle Infielders
by
Jay Jaffe

12-02

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19

Prospectus Hit and Run: Resetting the Standard
by
Jay Jaffe

11-28

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19

The Lineup Card: 10 Pitcher MVPs and Their Worthiness
by
Baseball Prospectus

11-22

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27

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Golden Era Ballot for the Hall of Fame
by
Jay Jaffe

01-21

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6

Prospectus Q&A: Jack O'Connell, Part II
by
David Laurila

01-06

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28

Prospectus Hit and Run: Blyleven in '11 and Other Tales from the Ballot
by
Jay Jaffe

01-04

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7

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: The Right Fielders
by
Jay Jaffe

01-03

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12

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Don't Stop The Rock
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

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19

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Edgar Martinez
by
Jay Jaffe

12-29

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: No Shortage of Quality Shortstops
by
Jay Jaffe

12-28

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Alomar's Second Chance
by
Jay Jaffe

12-23

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2011: Bagwell and Baggage
by
Jay Jaffe

12-20

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16

Prospectus Hit and Run: Class of 2011: Starting Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

11-10

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: Examining The Expansion Era Hall of Fame Ballot
by
Jay Jaffe

08-13

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8

Prospectus Q&A: On Trammell and Whitaker
by
David Laurila

01-13

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77

Prospectus Hit and Run: 10 Men Out
by
Jay Jaffe

01-07

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39

Voting Outcomes
by
Tim Kniker

01-07

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57

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hawk, Rock, and a Couple of Shocks
by
Jay Jaffe

01-06

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41

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases for Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

12-30

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19

Prospectus Today: Virtual Hall-Worthy Selections
by
Joe Sheehan

12-27

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76

On the Beat: Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

12-23

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14

Prospectus Hit and Run: Hall of Fame Cases at Third and Short
by
Jay Jaffe

12-21

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52

Prospectus Hit and Run: Alomar, the Crime Dog, the Big Cat and Big Mac
by
Jay Jaffe

11-16

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27

Prospectus Today: Awards Season
by
Joe Sheehan

10-04

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15

On the Beat: Final Weekend Update
by
John Perrotto

08-13

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22

Prospectus Hit and Run: How is the Air Up There?
by
Jay Jaffe

07-12

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15

On the Beat: Mid-Season Snapshot
by
John Perrotto

01-27

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33

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Curious Case of Jeff Kent
by
Jay Jaffe

01-22

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28

Prospectus Hit and Run: Protracting the Process
by
Jay Jaffe

01-13

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57

Prospectus Q&A: Chaz Scoggins
by
David Laurila

01-11

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23

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Infielders
by
Jay Jaffe

01-04

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6

Prospectus Q&A: Tony Blengino
by
David Laurila

12-29

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35

Prospectus Hit and Run: Throwing Rice
by
Jay Jaffe

12-16

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20

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Rock-y Road
by
Jay Jaffe

12-15

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21

Prospectus Hit and Run: Oh Rickey, You're So Fine
by
Jay Jaffe

12-09

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Bleeding Edge of a Whole New Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

12-03

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38

On the Beat: One Man's Hall of Fame Vote
by
John Perrotto

11-19

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70

Prospectus Today: The Tool of Ignorance
by
Joe Sheehan

05-29

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1

Prospectus Hit and Run: Take Me Out of the Hall Game
by
Jay Jaffe

01-25

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0

Prospectus Hit and Run: PEDs and Discontent
by
Jay Jaffe

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January 16, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Keltner All-Stars, Part II

22

Jay Jaffe

Who makes the Hall of Fame cut when faced against the Keltner Test and JAWS?

On Friday, I unveiled the catcher and infielders on what I'm calling the Keltner All-Stars, the best eligible player at each position outside the Hall of Fame. The name comes from former Indians third baseman Ken Keltner, who inspired Bill James' Keltner Test, a set of 15 questions that can be used to frame a player’s Hall of Fame case. The basis of my choices isn't that test. Instead, I'm using JAWS.

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A writer who never saw Jack Morris pitch watches him in action for the first time and comes away even less convinced that the traditionalist case for his candidacy should earn him a call to Cooperstown.

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January 13, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Keltner All Stars, Part I

14

Jay Jaffe

What does the Keltner Test tell us about guys who should be in line for enshrinement?

Two years ago, following Andre Dawson’s election to the Hall of Fame, I took a trip around the diamond to identify the most worthy players at each position who remained outside of Cooperstown. The piece was a nod to Bill James, whose systematic Keltner Test—named for former Indians third baseman Ken Keltner, a set of 15 questions that can be used to frame a player’s Hall of Fame case—includes the question, "Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?" Since then, no fewer than four of the players in that lineup—Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Ron Santo—have been elected, and the Wins Above Replacement Player system that underlies JAWS has changed significantly. Thus, it’s high time I take another spin and offer a new set of candidates.

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How one man came to support a borderline statistical candidate for the Hall of Fame whose other contributions strengthen his case.

My first memory about Minnie Minoso stems from 1977, on one of those bright afternoons when I had talked my grandfather into stopping at the dime store on the town square in Red Oak, Iowa. It's just as Sinclair Lewis as it sounds. The store sold baseball cards, and I was working on my Topps collection that summer by picking up four or five 10-cent packs at a time. Not everything at the dime store actually cost a dime, but fifteen baseball cards and one rock-hard piece of bubble gum did, and they came bundled in colorful wax wrappers that I liked so much that I refused to throw them away. My parents didn't give a rip about sports, but my grandfather had played second base in Class-B ball in southwest Iowa in the 1920s and understood what baseball could mean to a young boy. He was glad to fork over change for the cards.

Red Oak had, and still has, the type of rustic town square that was once the primary business district of small midwestern towns. Some communities have courthouses stuck in the middle of their square, but Red Oak has trees, a fountain, and a park. That day, I sat in the grass opening my cards, stuffing the gum in my mouth one piece at a time, while my grandfather lounged on a bench under a tree talking to a fellow retired farmer, who wore a green John Deere hat. The names on the cards didn't mean much to me at the time—it hadn't been that long since I had learned to read—but I loved the team names, the pictures, and of course, the numbers on the back. Suddenly I came across card No. 232 from the 1977 Topps set:

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January 10, 2012 12:54 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Barry, Black Jack, and the Big Ballot Surges

28

Jay Jaffe

Barry Larkin earns his Hall call, but the major gains for multiple players shed new light on their Cooperstown prospects.

That Barry Larkin is headed to Cooperstown is not the big surprise of the 2012 Hall of Fame voting, the results of which were announced on Monday afternoon. As the top holdover (he received 62.1 percent of the vote last year) on a ballot with no overwhelming first-time candidates, and a deserving candidate on both the traditional and sabermetric fronts, he was well-positioned to close the deal. With 86.4 percent of the vote, he cleared the 75 percent bar easily, and will join the family of Ron Santo at the induction ceremony on July 22, 2012.

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January 4, 2012 12:18 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The Catch-All

11

Jay Jaffe

Tim Raines has his case re-examined, and the remainder of the Hall ballot gets a look.

We all have our pet projects. With the graduations of Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo to the Hall of Fame, mine is now Tim Raines. During his 23-year major-league career, Raines combined the virtues of a keen batting eye, dazzling speed, and all-around athleticism with a cerebral approach that made him an electrifying performer and a dangerous offensive weapon. Yet in four years on the ballot, he's reached just 37.5 percent of the vote, exactly half of what he needs to reach Cooperstown.

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Bernie Williams burned it up with the Yankees during his career, but did the Puerto Rican do enough to blaze a trail to the Hall?

Before Derek Jeter, there was Bernie Williams. As the Yankees emerged from a barren stretch of 13 seasons without a trip to the playoffs from 1982-1994, and a particularly abysmal stretch of four straight losing seasons from 1989-1992, their young switch-hitting center fielder stood as a symbol for the franchise's resurgence. For too long, the Yankees had drafted poorly, traded away what homegrown talent they produced for veterans, and signed pricey free agents to fill the gaps as part of George Steinbrenner's eternal win-now directive. But with Steinbrenner banned by commissioner Fay Vincent and the Yankees' day-to-day baseball operations in the hands of Gene Michael, promising youngsters were allowed to develop unimpeded.

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December 30, 2011 3:23 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Morris on the Ballot, Smith to Close

41

Jay Jaffe

Jay Jaffe and JAWS examine the starting pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame BBWAA ballot, starting with the inevitable Jack Morris.

After delivering the JAWS piece on first basemen earlier this week, I had planned to tackle the outfielders—Tim Raines, Bernie Williams et al—next. The sad news of Greg Spira's untimely passing on Wednesday presented me with a reason to change course, however. In the service of working on a chapter on Jack Morris’s Hall of Fame case for Extra Innings: More Baseball Between the Numbers in November, I had called upon the Internet Wayback Machine to unearth Greg's seminal research piece questioning whether Morris "pitched to the score." a piece that was published in Baseball Prospectus 1997, predating Morris’s arrival on the BBWAA ballot by a three years and Joe Sheehan's own outstanding Morris research by five years. I suggested to Dave Pease that we republish it on our site to run alongside yesterday’s article in tribute to our fallen colleague and friend, a fine example of his intellectual curiosity and dogged research efforts, particularly as the work dated to a time when Retrosheet was in its infancy and the relevant data not easily compiled. This piece is dedicated to his memory.

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December 28, 2011 3:30 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: The First Basemen

42

Jay Jaffe

The new JAWS runs up against players from the Steroid Era to determine their Hall worthiness.

As with comedy, timing is everything in baseball. "Hitting is timing," Hall of Famer Warren Spahn said famously, finishing the thought with the complementary observation, "Pitching is upsetting timing." A good chunk of both the game's traditional and advanced statistics, the ones that we spurn and those that we celebrate, owe plenty to being the right man in the right place at the right time—wins, saves, and RBI from the former camp, leverage, run expectancy, and win expectancy from the latter. ERA owes everything to the sequence of events. For better or worse, MVP votes are won and lost on the timing of a player's productivity, or at least the perception of it that comes with being labeled "clutch." Timing is a major part of how we measure the game, so it should matter when we look over the course of a player's career in evaluating his fitness for the Hall of Fame.

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Continuing a jaunt through the 2012 Hall of Fame ballot with the help of the revamped JAWS, a certain DH goes under the microscope.

It's been nearly 40 years since the designated hitter was introduced to Major League Baseball, and in that time, only one player who spent the plurality—not even the majority—of his time at the position has made it into the Hall of Fame. That was Paul Molitor, who spent 1,171 of his 2,683 career games riding the pine between plate appearances. When I reviewed Molitor's Hall of Fame case—in what was actually my Baseball Prospectus debut, at a point when the system hadn’t even been named JAWS—I considered him as a third baseman, because he had played 788 games there, and the majority of his games playing somewhere in the infield. He had generated real defensive value (26 FRAA according to the measure of the time, 22 FRAA according to our most recent batch), strengthening a case that was virtually automatic anyway by dint of his membership in the 3,000-hit club.

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December 19, 2011 1:45 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Class of 2012: Middle Infielders

18

Jay Jaffe

Only one middle infielder passes the revamped JAWS' standards for Hall of Fame induction.

The past year has been a great one for JAWS, the Hall of Fame evaluation system whose creation marked my first contribution to Baseball Prospectus back in 2004 (I didn't name it until the next go-round). In 2011, two overly qualified candidates for whom I've advocated for the better part of a decade were finally elected. In January, Bert Blyleven received 79.7 percen tof the Baseball Writers of America vote, becoming the first player ever to gain entry on his 14th ballot. In December, the late Ron Santo received 93.8 percent of the vote from the Golden Era committee, a bittersweet result given his passing just a year ago but a vindication of what we've known here for years, that he too was worthy of a bronze plaque.

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December 2, 2011 9:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Resetting the Standard

19

Jay Jaffe

Redefining the JAWS equation sets a new standard for Hall of Fame induction.

This time of year is a busy stretch if you're a Hall of Fame buff, or at least this particular Hall of Fame buff. The 2012 BBWAA ballot was released on Wednesday, adding 13 new candidates to the 14 holdovers from last year's ballot. I'll start digging into the details of those candidacies starting at some point late next week. Meanwhile, the vote on the Golden Era candidates will take place at the Winter Meetings in Dallas this coming Monday, December 5; alas, I think I’m actually going to be in the air when the results are announced, but I’ll weigh in upon arrival. Earlier this week, I had the opportunity to discuss some of the Golden Era candidates on television as part of my debut appearance on MLB Network's new show, “Clubhouse Confidential.” It wasn't my first time on TV, but I believe it was my first time discussing JAWS in that medium. Explaining the system concisely AND discussing the merits of a handful of candidates in a four-minute span was certainly a challenge, but host Brian Kenny and his producers seemed quite pleased with the segment, and there’s reason to believe that it won't be the last time I appear on the show.

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