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Articles Tagged Plate Discipline 

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06-17

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5

Moonshot: Striking Distance
by
Robert Arthur

08-12

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8

Overthinking It: Yasiel Puig Adjusts to the Adjustments
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-21

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13

Overthinking It: To Sleep, Perchance to Swing
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-06

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7

Overthinking It: The Plate Discipline-Only Prospect
by
Ben Lindbergh

04-18

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3

Five to Watch: Contact Watch!
by
Bret Sayre

04-15

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3

Profiles in Lack of Lineup Protection
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

10-23

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2

BP Unfiltered: Dominican Players and Plate Discipline: Additional Data
by
Ben Lindbergh

10-23

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15

Baseball ProGUESTus: Finding a Way to Walk off the Island
by
Jorge Arangure Jr.

05-23

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3

Pebble Hunting: How Josh Harrison Beats Justin Verlander
by
Sam Miller

04-24

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27

Pebble Hunting: Albert Pujols Never Walks
by
Sam Miller

04-16

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12

BP Unfiltered: Watching Pedro Alvarez
by
R.J. Anderson

09-30

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21

Baseball ProGUESTus: A New Take on Plate Discipline--Redefining the Zone
by
Matt Lentzner

03-23

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17

Fantasy Beat: The Need for Discipline
by
Marc Normandin

12-22

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9

Player Profile: Jeff Francoeur
by
Marc Normandin and Eric Seidman

01-09

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0

Player Profile: Corey Patterson
by
Marc Normandin

06-07

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Gameday Triple Play
by
Dan Fox

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

03-15

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Another Look at Plate Discipline
by
Nate Silver

02-21

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0

2006 Top 50 Prospects
by
David Regan

12-16

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0

The Class of 2005
by
Jay Jaffe

02-22

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part II
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-17

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0

The Daily Prospectus: Back Into the Gap
by
Joe Sheehan

07-08

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0

The Week in Quotes: July 1-7, 2002
by
Derek Zumsteg

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March 23, 2009 11:46 am

Fantasy Beat: The Need for Discipline

17

Marc Normandin

The development of a better sense of what a player should and shouldn't try to hit can hint at a brighter future.

Developing adequate plate discipline is an important part of a young player's growth as a hitter. This does not necessarily mean that just learning to take a walk is the key to success; the ability to pick up on whether a pitch is a ball or a strike, and learning which of those pitches you can and cannot do something productive with, is just as imperative. Today, we're going to take a look at a few players who saw significant differences in their plate discipline from 2007 to 2008, and whether we can expect them to repeat their success going forward.

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December 22, 2008 2:49 pm

Player Profile: Jeff Francoeur

9

Marc Normandin and Eric Seidman

Any hopes for success may be fading fast for this former highly touted Braves prospect.

Jeff Francoeur's career has been a series of ups and downs, the high point coming in his first year in the majors, and his lowest occurring this past season. To avoid becoming a has-been at age-25, Francoeur will need to figure out how to harness his talent. Today we'll take a look at what went wrong in his dreadful 2008, and what we can expect from him going forward.

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January 9, 2008 12:00 am

Player Profile: Corey Patterson

0

Marc Normandin

Can the game's former best prospect bounce back and be a late-winter bargain as a free agent?

Sifting through the remaining free agents shows us that the available options are mostly part-time players, guys coming off of disappointing campaigns, or Barry Bonds. It's not clear which non-Bonds classification Corey Patterson belongs to yet, considering some of the seasons he's had in the past are on both the positive and negative ends of the production spectrum. Is Patterson still capable of a few more productive seasons, or is he more likely to be a speedy fourth outfielder from here on out?

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How different ballparks affect velocity, whether pitchers use the fastball more early in games, and the challenge of quantifying plate discipline.

"Plate discipline though is difficult to measure. Good plate discipline can mean swinging at the first pitch, fouling off the fifth, taking the tenth; it's about hitting when it's possible to do so and walking when not. If it's possible to hit, a walk is a relative failure. Ultimately though, because information as to just how many juicy pitches players swing at and how many unhittable ones they take is non-existent, though walks are an imperfect measure, they will have to do."
--John Hill writing for The Cub Reporter weblog in 2005


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October 12, 2006 12:00 am

Player Profile

0

Marc Normandin

The A's second-best hitter showed considerable improvement in his second full season in the majors.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

The Baseline forecast is also significant in that it attempts to remove luck from a forecast line. For example, a player who hit .310, but with a poor batting eye and unimpressive speed indicators, is probably not really a .310 hitter. Its more likely that hes a .290 hitter who had a few balls bounce his way, and the Baseline attempts to correct for this.

\nSimilarly, a pitcher with an unusually low EqHR9 rate, but a high flyball rate, is likely to have achieved the low EqHR9 partly as a result of luck. In addition, the Baseline corrects for large disparities between a pitchers ERA and his PERA, and an unusually high or low hit rate on balls in play, which are highly subject to luck. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_32 = 'Approximate number of batting outs made while playing this position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_33 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats. In PECOTA, Batting Average is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitters comparables. It is defined as H/AB. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_34 = 'Bases on Balls, or bases on balls allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_35 = 'Bases on balls allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_36 = 'Batters faced pitching.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_37 = 'Balks. Not recorded 1876-1880.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_38 = 'Batting Runs Above Replacement. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .230 EQA and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .230^2.5.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_39 = 'Batting runs above a replacement at the same position. A replacement position player is one with an EQA equal to (230/260) times the average EqA for that position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_40 = 'Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitters EqR/27 or a pitchers EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

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March 15, 2006 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Another Look at Plate Discipline

0

Nate Silver

Nate takes a closer look at plate discipline, wondering how to best measure and describe it.

Now let's say that you're a pitcher. Juan Pierre. Manny Ramirez. Which player are you going to throw strikes to?

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February 21, 2006 12:00 am

2006 Top 50 Prospects

0

David Regan

We take a look inside the selection criteria for assembling our Top 50 Prospects list.

For example, BP's Top 50 from 2005, while not without flaws, was better than most. Sure there were pitchers ranked highly (Richie Gardner and Adam Miller) who succumbed to arm injuries. We had thought that Willy Aybar (#34) would develop some power by now and that Edwin Jackson (#45) would improve from his sub-par 2004. Despite those missteps, Baseball Prospectus is proud of the work that went into that list as well as the 2006 version.

With a verifiable cornucopia of prospect lists out in cyberspace, there of course exists a vast array of philosophies governing the compilation of these lists. The king of prospect sites, Baseball America, ranks prospects based on scouting reports, tools, upside, age vs. level of competition and performance. Other sites lean heavily on a player's walk rate. Take, for example, the case of second baseman Travis Denker, in the Dodgers' system. After Denker hit .310/.417/.556 in Low A as a 20-year-old, many sites had him among their top 50 and, in one case, much higher. With a BB/PA rate of .147, Denker has exhibited unusual plate discipline for a young prospect. However, what these lofty rankings ignored were his stone hands, iron glove, .155 EqA upon his promotion to High-A that year, and his PECOTA projections. When different ranking systems rate some pieces of the puzzle higher than other systems, wildly differing outcomes will result.

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December 16, 2004 12:00 am

The Class of 2005

0

Jay Jaffe

There are 16 position players on the Hall of Fame ballot. Jay Jaffe thinks three of them belong in Cooperstown.

These new metrics enable us to identify candidates who are as good or better than the average Hall of Famer at their position. By promoting those players for election, we can avoid further diluting the quality of the Hall's membership. Clay Davenport's Translations make an ideal tool for this endeavor because they normalize all performance records in major-league history to the same scoring environment, adjusting for park effects, quality of competition and length of schedule. All pitchers, hitters and fielders are thus rated above or below one consistent replacement level, making cross-era comparisons a breeze. Though non-statistical considerations--awards, championships, postseason performance--shouldn't be left by the wayside in weighing a player's Hall of Fame case, they're not the focus here.

Since election to the Hall of Fame requires a player to perform both at a very high level and for a long time, it's inappropriate to rely simply on career Wins Above Replacement (WARP, which for this exercise refers exclusively to the adjusted-for-all-time version. WARP3). For this process I also identified each player's peak value as determined by the player's WARP in his best five consecutive seasons (with allowances made for seasons lost to war or injury). That choice is an admittedly arbitrary one; I simply selected a peak vaue that was relatively easy to calculate and that, at five years, represented a minimum of half the career of a Hall of Famer.

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February 22, 2004 12:00 am

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part II

0

Baseball Prospectus

Wright or Marte, Marte or Wright. I love 'em both. I've put Andy Marte ahead for the moment, because of the 10-month age difference and because scouts seem to like him a lot more, but I really feel strongly that David Wright's as complete a prospect as there is in the game. I'd love to hear comments comparing the two, and Nate, I'd love to see what their PECOTA comps look like. Nobody else is that impressive. Dallas McPherson put up some serious numbers last year, and while some of that was in The Hangar in Rancho Cucamonga, he hit .314/.426/.569 in Arkansas. He doesn't have a great defensive reputation, but it's not terrible either, and he clearly outhit everyone else on this list. I don't know if anyone else deserves Top 50 consideration. I know people love the Greek God of Walks, but he hit .165/.295/.248 in Triple-A, over a 32-game sample. Of course, his full-season OBP was still .446, so... Chad Tracy hit .324 and his defense took a big step forward, but he doesn't do much more than hit singles, and it was Tucson. I respect that he's had two good seasons in a row, but he was in El Paso in 2002, so I'm not sure that means anything either. And as much as I hyped him a year ago, I have to concede that Brendan Harris may not be quite as good as I thought he was. But he's still a better prospect than almost anyone gives him credit for.

Baseball Prospectus Top 40 Prospects Roundtables:
2003 Part II
2003 Part I
2001


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Last year, I started messing around with something I call the Walk Gap, which is just the difference between a team's walks drawn and walks allowed. Because we've spent so much time hammering home the importance of plate discipline and throwing strikes, I thought this might be a good indicator of team success.

Last year, I started messing around with something I call the Walk Gap, which is just the difference between a team's walks drawn and walks allowed. Because we've spent so much time hammering home the importance of plate discipline and throwing strikes, I thought this might be a good indicator of team success.

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It just goes to prove anybody with a bat in his hand at this level is dangerous, even Hideo Nomo.

MANAGERS AND EX-MANAGERS

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