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Articles Tagged Pitching Prospects 

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07-11

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13

Overthinking It: Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, and the Diverging Paths of Pitching Prospects
by
Ben Lindbergh

03-12

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2

The Process: How Much Do Early Pitcher Promotions Matter?
by
Bradley Ankrom

12-15

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

12-17

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26

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster
by
Matt Swartz

10-09

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5

Future Shock: Venezuelan Winter League Preview
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-05

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0

Future Shock: Organizational Rankings, Part 2
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-02

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0

Transaction Analysis: NL Central NRI Review
by
Christina Kahrl

02-29

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0

Future Shock: Organizational Rankings, Part 1
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-23

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0

Wait 'Til Next Year: Defensive Snubstitutions
by
Bryan Smith

04-20

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes On Right-handed Pitching Prospects
by
Nate Silver

04-12

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

04-11

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0

BP Kings Update
by
Ben Murphy

02-14

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0

Future Shock: Organizational Rankings
by
Kevin Goldstein

07-30

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0

Fantasy Focus: Charging the Mound
by
Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss

06-22

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0

Future Shock: Midpoint American League Report
by
Kevin Goldstein

03-03

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Takes on Prospects, Part Four
by
Nate Silver

03-02

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0

Future Shock: State of the Systems: AL Central
by
Kevin Goldstein

02-24

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Any Such Thing?
by
Nate Silver

02-21

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0

2006 Top 50 Prospects
by
David Regan

02-21

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects - Pitchers
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-23

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part III
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-21

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0

Prospectus Roundtable: Top 50 Prospects, Part I
by
Baseball Prospectus

05-09

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0

Prospectus Feature: How Sure is a "Can't Miss" Pitching Prospect?
by
Paul Covert

05-09

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0

How Sure Is A "Sure Thing"?
by
Paul Covert

07-03

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0

Touring the Minors
by
Keith Scherer

04-12

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0

Touring the Minors
by
Keith Scherer

08-04

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0

Transaction Analysis: July 30-August 1, 1999
by
Christina Kahrl

04-16

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0

Projected 1999 National League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-12

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0

Projected 1999 American League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

04-01

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0

Projected 1998 National League Standings
by
Baseball Prospectus

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Checking in on two practically perfect pitching prospects, several seasons on.

On the night that Homer Bailey pitched his second career no-hitter, fanning nine Giants against only one walk, Phil Hughes was also in action. Hughes had a good outing, but hardly a historic one: he threw seven innings of one-run ball against the Twins, striking out three and walking two. Bailey’s start was the one that led SporsCenter, but it’s appropriate that the pair’s spots in their respective rotations were synched.

Bailey and Hughes have been linked for a long time. Both were hard-throwing, right-handed high schoolers selected in the first round of the 2004 draft. Hughes stands 6’5”; Bailey stands 6’4.” Hughes is less than two months younger. On our list of the top 100 prospects of 2007, Hughes placed second and Bailey ranked fourth, which made comparisons between them inevitable. Just breathe in the August, 2006-ness of this excerpt from Future Shock:

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March 12, 2012 3:00 am

The Process: How Much Do Early Pitcher Promotions Matter?

2

Bradley Ankrom

Do pitchers who play in full-season leagues at age 17 or 18 often find success, or is there still no such thing as a pitching prospect?

As part of last week’s Prospects on the Bubble series, we looked at hitters who had played full seasons at advanced Class-A as 17- or 18-year-olds. A number of readers asked about pitchers who have done the same thing, and the results (using a minimum of 100 innings pitched) are significantly less impressive in terms of both quantity and quality.

The hitters group was headlined by Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr. and Roberto Alomar and featured three others—Tim Raines, Ivan Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield—who posted career WARPs over 50 and had legitimate Cooperstown cases themselves. The amount of major-league success achieved by the precocious pitchers pales in comparison, as only Dwight Gooden was able to earn more than 50 career WARP.

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In the wake of the Matt Moore extension, revisit Nate's discussion of the perils of counting on pitching prospects and his remarks on the most promising southpaws.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audience, send us your suggestion.

Last week, the Rays signed young lefty Matt Moore to an extension that should prove to be team-friendly if he stays healthy, but as Nate discussed in an article which originally ran as a "Lies, Damned Lies" column on April 12, 2007, it's never safe to assume that a young pitcher's arm will remain intact.


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December 17, 2009 4:26 pm

Ahead in the Count: Anatomy of a Blockbuster

26

Matt Swartz

It may seem as though everyone involved in the Aces-for-Prospects swaps came out ahead, but it simply isn't so.

The Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners, and Athletics put together a blockbuster trade that has rarely been seen in baseball history: nine players will belong to new organizations next year, including two former Cy Young winners very much in their prime.

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October 9, 2009 12:41 pm

Future Shock: Venezuelan Winter League Preview

5

Kevin Goldstein

A look at the who's who of the first winter league to begin play down in Venezuela.

We interrupt our Arizona Fall League preview series to take a trip even further south, as the Venezuelan Winter League-or as it's knows to the locals, Liga Venezolana de Beisbol Profesional, begins play tonight. The political situation there, as well as fears of crime, has kept many teams from sending many American players there lately, but there are still a number of outstanding prospects who will get some more reps in when they go home for the winter.

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A review of the top half of baseball's player development systems.

1. Tampa Bay Rays
Last Year's Ranking: 1
Why They're Unchanged: Evan Longoria's full-season debut went even better than expected, and they added No. 1 overall pick David Price to the system.
Strengths: Yes. There are just tons of prospects everywhere, as 20 of MLB's 30 teams don't have one prospect ranked higher than Tampa's fifth-rated player.
Weaknesses: It's hard to figure out what to do with all of this talent. Seriously, they're not just No. 1, they're No. 1 by a mile.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Unchanged. Even with Longoria in the big leagues, the Rays have more than enough talent to remain at the top, and once again, they have the first overall pick in June.






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March 2, 2008 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: NL Central NRI Review

0

Christina Kahrl

Which non-roster players have a shot at sticking this Spring?

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February 29, 2008 12:00 am

Future Shock: Organizational Rankings, Part 1

0

Kevin Goldstein

Having completed the swing through the 30 systems, reviewing the bottom half of MLB's player development systems.

16. Chicago Cubs
Last Year's Ranking: 21
Why They're Up: The struggles of Donald Veal and the graduation of Felix Pie are both offset by Geovany Soto's breakout seasons and what is looking like a very strong 2007 draft.
Strengths: Solid offensive prospects at nearly every level, with Josh Vitters providing big-time potential. Despite disappointing 2007 performances, there are several power arms in the system.
Weaknesses: Very little pitching that is close to being ready to help; Soto's move to the majors leaves little else in the way of power.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down a tad. Soto is now in the majors; Sean Gallagher and Eric Patterson could both be moving on or out as well.

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October 23, 2007 12:00 am

Wait 'Til Next Year: Defensive Snubstitutions

0

Bryan Smith

The ten worst defenses in the minors, and the pitchers that learned to hate going to the office because of them.

While going about the business of minor league player evaluation, I think we can sometimes forget that baseball is a team game. Often in the minor leagues, it seems a game between eight players that will never make it, and the one blue-chip player you came out to the ballpark to see. Scouts are able to watch a game with blinders that allow them to focus on one player's individual skills, independent of the other players around him. This is what separates amateur-talent scouts from the average baseball fan, but in statistics, we try to do this by accounting for context. What league was the player in, relative to his age? Was he consistently dominating? What type of environment was the player hitting or pitching in?

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Nate sorts fiction from reality, looking at the best young righties through PECOTA's eyes.

PECOTA versus Baseball America on pitching prospects was where we left off. Today righthanders get all the attention.

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Nate talks about a Lost Generation of pitching prospects, and casts a critical eye on the way PECOTA values young hurlers.

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April 11, 2007 12:00 am

BP Kings Update

0

Ben Murphy

Everything you wanted to know about the BP Kings Charity Scoresheet Draft.

Peter Gammons' unfortunate incident focused the spotlight on cerebral aneurysms, but my connection is more personal. My mother had a cerebral aneurysm rupture way back in 1977 and was fortunate to survive.

Draft Strategy: Be strong at scarce positions offensively, avoided the dreaded Pitcher-AAA as always, and work on building a better bullpen to compensate for the lack of early starting pitchers. I sort of strayed from that strategy by taking John Lackey relatively early, and I might have a problem at second base if Jose Lopez doesn't pan out. I wanted to build a good core under the age of 30, and I did a fairly decent job of that. One of my harder decisions was my first one--Grady Sizemore vs. Joe Mauer. The consensus seems to be that I went the wrong with Sizemore--the consensus could be right, but I get the idea that three years from now Mauer won't be catching as often, to preserve his knees. Maybe that's too far forward to look, but at the same token, I see Sizemore as basically being risk-free.

I participated in the Mock Draft in the Scoresheet newsgroup, and because of that I expected the draft to be a little more prospect-heavy early-on. With the notable exception of Nate Silver, it wasn't, which suits me fine. I'm happy to have Brignac and Adam Miller among my top prospects.


King Kaufman & Rob Granickback to top
Charity: Physicians for Reproductive Choice and Health
Draft Strategy: Our only real strategy was to get big bats with the first few picks, then turn to pitching. Other than that, we basically reacted to the draft. We had the third pick, and in a league with an obvious top three, that made things easy. The one who's left is your guy, and that was Joe Mauer, whom we were happy to have. When Vernon Wells fell, we felt, to us at No. 22, we had our theme for the early part of the draft: Young, studly up-the-middle guys.


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