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Articles Tagged Pitch Counts 

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12-02

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5

Baseball Therapy: Dating the Impulse to Protect Pitchers
by
Russell A. Carleton

09-03

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4

Baseball ProGUESTus: A Closer Look at College Pitch Counts and Injuries
by
Dustin Palmateer

07-22

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10

Baseball Therapy: The High-Pitch-Count Hangover
by
Russell A. Carleton

07-15

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 243: No-Hitters, Tim Lincecum, and Pitch Counts/Joe Blanton and ERA Estimators
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

08-23

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4

BP Unfiltered: Double Double, Arms in Trouble
by
Geoff Young

06-25

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6

BP Unfiltered: Wins, and When Things That Don't Matter Start to Matter
by
Sam Miller

07-20

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14

Spinning Yarn: A Zone of Their Own
by
Mike Fast

06-29

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12

The BP Broadside: Pineda to Infinity and Beyond
by
Steven Goldman

02-16

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59

Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone
by
Mike Fast

10-26

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8

Spinning Yarn: Interpreting Pitch Classifications
by
Mike Fast

10-21

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30

Ahead in the Count: What Happened to Cole Hamels?
by
Matt Swartz

02-08

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0

Developing Pitchers
by
Will Carroll

06-30

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0

Estimating Pitch Counts
by
Ted Kury

04-23

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Estimating Pitch Counts
by
Nate Silver

02-17

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Rick Peterson
by
Jonah Keri

09-20

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Tommy John
by
Jonah Keri

08-05

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0

The Daily Prospectus: Flushing $32 Million
by
Joe Sheehan

06-05

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0

Aim For The Head: PAP^3 FAQ
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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0

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-22

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0

Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
by
Keith Woolner

05-21

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0

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)
by
Keith Woolner

05-21

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0

Analyzing PAP (Part One)
by
Keith Woolner

03-11

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0

The Marlin in Charge
by
Joe Sheehan

08-01

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0

Doctoring The Numbers: Pitch Counts in 2001
by
Rany Jazayerli

07-27

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0

Aim For The Head: Feedback
by
Keith Woolner

07-19

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0

Aim For The Head: Pitches and Game Length
by
Keith Woolner

08-20

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0

PAP - A Historical Perspective
by
Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner

05-28

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0

Pitcher Abuse Points - One Year Later
by
Rany Jazayerli

06-19

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0

Pitcher Abuse Points
by
Rany Jazayerli

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June 30, 2003 12:00 am

Estimating Pitch Counts

0

Ted Kury

Using a database of 30,000 starts from 1994 to 2000, BP corrspondent Ted Kury introduces a new model to estimate pitch counts per start from historical and minor league games.

Using data commonly available in newspaper box scores, e.g., innings pitched, hits, runs allowed, earned runs allowed, walks, and strikeouts, we can derive estimated pitch counts. In addition, we will look at how the designated hitter impacts pitch counts.

The Raw Data

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April 23, 2003 12:00 am

Lies, Damned Lies: Estimating Pitch Counts

0

Nate Silver

Silicone. Margarine. O'Doul's. Why fool around with watered-down imitations when you've got the real thing ready and available? Rightly or wrongly, a lot of attention has been focused on pitch counts in the past several years. That's partly because of the efforts of people like Rob Neyer, Keith Woolner, and Will Carroll, not to mention those coaches, executives and agents who understand the importance of protecting their golden-armed investments. Pitch counts have become easy to take for granted because pitch count data is more readily available now than it ever was in the past. These days, just about any self-respecting box score lists pitch counts alongside the rest of a pitcher's line, a far cry from the dirty newsprint days of yore, when pitch count references were about as common as mentions of Reality TV or the Information Superhighway. But what about when you don't have pitch count information available? Like, say, you're at a ballgame, and wondering whether Dusty Baker should send Kerry Wood out for another inning? Or you're perusing through minor league stats? Or you're looking at old boxes on Retrosheet, which wonderful as they might be (this, folks, was the first game I ever attended), don't contain any information on pitch counts? Well, it turns out that it's not that difficult to make a reasonable guess at pitch counts based on other information that's much easier to come by. Looking at a complete set of data from the 2001 and 2002 seasons as provided by Keith Woolner, I ran a simple linear regression of pitches thrown against various other characteristics of a pitcher's stat line. Here was the formula that I came up with:

Rightly or wrongly, a lot of attention has been focused on pitch counts in the past several years. That's partly because of the efforts of people like Rob Neyer, Keith Woolner, and Will Carroll, not to mention those coaches, executives and agents who understand the importance of protecting their golden-armed investments. Pitch counts have become easy to take for granted because pitch count data is more readily available now than it ever was in the past. These days, just about any self-respecting box score lists pitch counts alongside the rest of a pitcher's line, a far cry from the dirty newsprint days of yore, when pitch count references were about as common as mentions of Reality TV or the Information Superhighway.

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Rick Peterson: The goal is for every pitcher to master the delivery. We have a comprehensive program based on drills and throwing programs to teach that. The core of efficient delivery theory comes from the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) lab of Dr. James Andrews. Last year, we had Tim Hudson and Barry Zito down to work with Dr. Andrews.

Rick Peterson has melded biomechanical research, psychological principles and Eastern philosophy during his five-year tenure as pitching coach of the Oakland A's. Under his guidance the A's have developed All-Star pitchers Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, acquired and polished hidden gems like Chad Bradford and implemented a minor league regimen that's yielded several promising pitching prospects. He recently chatted with BP about organizational communication, the virtue of empty-headedness on the mound, and the all-mighty data.

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September 20, 2002 9:58 pm

Prospectus Q&A: Tommy John

0

Jonah Keri

After hurting his elbow in 1974, Tommy John's successful 11-year career with the Indians, White Sox and Dodgers looked like it was over. But Dr. Frank Jobe and his partner Dr. Robert Kerlan parlayed a long-shot procedure (ulnar collateral replacement surgery) into 14 more productive years for John's left elbow.

After hurting his elbow in 1974, Tommy John's successful 11-year career with the Indians, White Sox and Dodgers looked like it was over. But Dr. Frank Jobe and his partner Dr. Robert Kerlan parlayed a long-shot procedure (ulnar collateral replacement surgery) into 14 more productive years for John's left elbow.

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Mark Prior threw 135 pitches yesterday. It was worth it, though, because it pulled the Cubs to within 12 1/2 games of first place in the NL Central and to within 14 games of the Dodgers in the wild-card race. Look, I've made this argument before, so I'm not going to waste a column on it again today. Letting your nominal franchise pitcher throw 135 pitches in a meaningless game is inconsistent with any kind of plan for success. Letting him bat in the bottom of the eighth having thrown 119 pitches is grounds for firing.

Mark Prior threw 135 pitches yesterday. It was worth it, though, because it pulled the Cubs to within 12 1/2 games of first place in the NL Central and to within 14 games of the Dodgers in the wild-card race.

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May 22, 2002 10:57 am

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)

0

Keith Woolner

Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.

 The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001.

 

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May 21, 2002 9:00 pm

Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)

0

Keith Woolner

There are two related effects we are interested in studying. The original intent of PAP was to ascertain whether a pitcher is at risk of injury or permanent reduction in effectiveness due to repeated overwork. And in particular, does PAP (or any similar formula) provide more insight into that risk that simple pitch counts alone?

 The following article, written by Keith Woolner with Rany Jazayerli, appeared in Baseball Prospectus 2001.

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March 11, 2002 12:00 am

The Marlin in Charge

0

Joe Sheehan

At the time, I had no response. Unfortunately, I hadn't given the matter much thought, and the answer I provided was, translating roughly, "blrxgh."

Thanks to Retrosheet and the genius of Keith Woolner, I can now take a pretty good look at Torborg's record. The short answer is that there's some reason to be concerned for the arms of Beckett, Brad Penny, and Ryan Dempster.

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