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Part two in a two-part series comparing the PFM's performance to those of owners in experts leagues.

Last week, I took a look at how Baseball Prospectus’s PFM did against the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars expert leagues. Today, I will shift over to the pitchers.

Last week, I concluded that the expert leagues pay too much for the top hitters while the PFM pays too much for the guys at the bottom of the pile. I thought that if you are going to redistribute your money, the best way to do this would be to redistribute it toward the middle, not at the top. I was amazed at how reliable the PFM was at “predicting” the earnings curve for hitters and wondered if the same thing would apply for the pitchers.

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January 30, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: PFM vs. the 'Experts,' Part One (Hitters)


Mike Gianella

Part one in a two-part series comparing the PFM's performance to those of owners in experts leagues.

Sometimes in these pieces, I delve into a long explanation of what I’m going to write and what I’m going to set out to prove. That’s not going to happen today. I’ve got a lot of tables to produce and a tight deadline so I’m just going to dive right into it. Today’s goal is to take a look at the PFM, take a look at expert prices, and determine whether or not I should be using the PFM more as a tool to devise my bid limits or if perhaps I should chuck my bid limits entirely. How’s that for a attention grabbing lead?

Baseball Prospectus fantasy writers get asked about PECOTA a lot. Some subscribers don’t understand why they should bother with my bid limits when the PFM serves the same purpose as my bid limits but with a more mathematical bent. Others find my bid limits interesting but think that the PFM should be featured more as we approach Draft Day.

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A new edition of Player Forecast Manager for generating in-season and past-season values.

A new version of the Player Forecast Manager (PFM) is now available. It allows you to see what players are worth in your fantasy league based on both in-season and past-season data.

Soon, the regular PFM will be updated with data from the 2013 PECOTAs. However, if you would still like to generate values based on the as-is 2012 stats—or stats from any of the past five seasons—this functionality will be available in the new PFM Year-to-Date (YTD). When the season begins, you will also be able to use PFM YTD to generate values for your league based on 2013 statistics.

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