A look at how to make the most of BP's offerings in tandem with Mike's bid limits.
This column is designed to address the questions I commonly get about my published bid limits here at Baseball Prospectus, how they’re different from the prices in our Player Forecast Manager (PFM), and most importantly why they are useful. It would be impossible to address every question our readers have had about my pricing modeling versus what the PFM is and what it does, so I’ll start with a few of the most common questions our readers have had about both.
Are you planning on using the awful Q&A format for this article?
A primer on how the Player Forecast Manager and PECOTA projections can guide you before, during, and after drafts and auctions this spring.
Before the Auction
The advice below is designed primarily for mono league, auction formats. However, the same principles apply for mixed league formats as well.
For fantasy players, the unveiling of PECOTA means the simultaneous unveiling of the PFM, our Player Forecast Manager. One of the most versatile valuation tools in the industry, the PFM allows you to customize valuation based on your league’s format. This is particularly useful if you are not playing in a “standard” 5x5 Roto format, as most “expert” commentary (including mine) focuses almost entirely on 5x5, Rotisserie valuations.
Part two in a two-part series comparing the PFM's performance to those of owners in experts leagues.
Last week, I took a look at how Baseball Prospectus’s PFM did against the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars expert leagues. Today, I will shift over to the pitchers.
Last week, I concluded that the expert leagues pay too much for the top hitters while the PFM pays too much for the guys at the bottom of the pile. I thought that if you are going to redistribute your money, the best way to do this would be to redistribute it toward the middle, not at the top. I was amazed at how reliable the PFM was at “predicting” the earnings curve for hitters and wondered if the same thing would apply for the pitchers.
Part one in a two-part series comparing the PFM's performance to those of owners in experts leagues.
Sometimes in these pieces, I delve into a long explanation of what I’m going to write and what I’m going to set out to prove. That’s not going to happen today. I’ve got a lot of tables to produce and a tight deadline so I’m just going to dive right into it. Today’s goal is to take a look at the PFM, take a look at expert prices, and determine whether or not I should be using the PFM more as a tool to devise my bid limits or if perhaps I should chuck my bid limits entirely. How’s that for a attention grabbing lead?
Baseball Prospectus fantasy writers get asked about PECOTAa lot. Some subscribers don’t understand why they should bother with my bid limits when the PFM serves the same purpose as my bid limits but with a more mathematical bent. Others find my bid limits interesting but think that the PFM should be featured more as we approach Draft Day.
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Soon, the regular PFM will be updated with data from the 2013 PECOTAs. However, if you would still like to generate values based on the as-is 2012 stats—or stats from any of the past five seasons—this functionality will be available in the new PFM Year-to-Date (YTD). When the season begins, you will also be able to use PFM YTD to generate values for your league based on 2013 statistics.