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Articles Tagged Park Effects 

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02-20

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3

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 390: 2014 Season Preview Series: Colorado Rockies
by
Ben Lindbergh, Sam Miller and Nick Wheatley-Schaller

11-27

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3

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 338: Giving Thanks for Your Emails
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

07-08

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1

BP Unfiltered: Analyzing Rogers Centre's Roof
by
Rob Pettapiece

06-26

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 232: Will Park Effects Go More Mainstream?/Yasiel Puig and Hitting .400/Evaluating Player Development/Loaning Players
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-21

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 229: Derek Jeter, Yasiel Puig, and the All-Star Game/The Royals and Blaming the Ballpark
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

05-22

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Travis Wood and the Winds of Wrigley
by
Andrew Koo

04-02

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17

Baseball ProGUESTus: Which Pitch Types Work Best at Coors Field?
by
Dan Rozenson

10-03

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BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 55: Shrinking Safeco/The Unpredictability of Japanese Players
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

04-27

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5

The Stats Go Marching In: Scoring Runs, Revisited
by
Max Marchi

03-22

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5

Overthinking It: The Power of Park Effects
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-27

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21

Ahead in the Count: Testing SIERA
by
Matt Swartz

09-22

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4

Manufactured Runs: A Walk in the Park
by
Colin Wyers

06-23

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1

Manufactured Runs: Batted Balls
by
Colin Wyers

10-06

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6

Playoff Prospectus: Post-Season Ballparks
by
Clay Davenport

01-31

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: Back to the Drawing Board
by
Dan Fox

10-30

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Prospectus Toolbox: Mailbag at Altitude
by
Derek Jacques

10-23

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Prospectus Toolbox: A Tale of Two Ballparks
by
Derek Jacques

10-11

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0

Schrodinger's Bat: On Atmosphere, Probability, and Prediction
by
Dan Fox

08-07

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Prospectus Toolbox: Non-Contact Part II: More on Strikeouts
by
Derek Jacques

10-16

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0

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-07

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-06

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Prospectus Matchups: October Musings
by
Jim Baker

10-05

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Two
by
Joe Sheehan

08-03

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Schrodinger's Bat: Advancing in Context
by
Dan Fox

08-03

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0

Prospectus Today: Something's Rotten in Den...ver
by
Joe Sheehan

07-26

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Can Of Corn: Putting the Park Back in Park Factors
by
Dayn Perry

03-07

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Fantasy Focus: Fantasy Feng-Shui
by
Erik Siegrist

02-10

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Crooked Numbers: More Time in the Park
by
James Click

02-03

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Crooked Numbers: Park Effects on Pitcher Types
by
James Click

03-30

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Prospectus Triple Play: Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Florida Marlins, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-14

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The Daily Prospectus: Park Effects
by
Joe Sheehan

04-17

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The Daily Prospectus: Park Effects on Walks
by
Joe Sheehan

04-12

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0

Touring the Minors
by
Keith Scherer

03-05

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Lost in America
by
Keith Scherer

10-12

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0

Call It In The Air!
by
Dave Pease

09-15

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A Quick and Dirty Guide to 1998 Park Factors
by
Greg Spira

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Ben and Sam preview the Rockies' season (and analyze Coors Field) with Russell A. Carleton, and Nick talks to Denver Post Rockies beat writer (and National Baseball Writer) Troy Renck (at 30:39).

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Ben and Sam discuss the Hall of Fame and answer listener emails about brawls with Brian McCann, catcher framing, park effects, and more.

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Does Rogers Centre's retractable roof have a significant impact on scoring?

Earlier this year, there was some talk in the Toronto papers about Rogers Centre and its status as a new “home-run haven.” The linked article is mostly a case of failing to stop writing once you have to say “it’s early, but...” However, the ideas described within it are consistent with conventional wisdom surrounding the stadium. Namely, that there are differences in batted-ball outcomes depending on whether the roof is open or closed.

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Ben and Sam answer listener emails about park effects, player development, hitting .400, and more.

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Ben and Sam talk about a pair of All-Star candidates, then discuss Royals GM Dayton Moore's comments about Kauffman Stadium suppressing walks.

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This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 22, 2013 5:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Travis Wood and the Winds of Wrigley

4

Andrew Koo

Why it pays to look at the weather forecast before starting a flyball pitcher at Wrigley Field.

One of the first axioms I learned when I wandered into the world of sports betting was to heed Wrigley Field’s winds. Wrigley’s proximity to Lake Michigan gave it a reputation for dramatically affecting fly balls, which would inflate or deflate the game over/under on runs. If the wind was blowing out, fly balls were expected to sail out as home runs, and the total would be unusually high. A low total typically meant that winds were blowing toward home plate, suppressing fly balls.

Vegas already knew this, which unfortunately added an additional dimension to handicapping Cubs home games. Amazingly though, this advice was extremely exploitable in fantasy baseball. An “@ChC” note next to my pitcher meant a trip to Baseball Weather Analyzer or Daily Baseball Data (two sweet resources) to examine Wrigley Field’s conditions that day. Flyball pitchers sat on blow-out days and started on blow-in days.

Chris Constancio of The Hardball Times investigated the effect of winds on HR/FB rates six years ago, and he observed statistically significant results in Chicago parks. I replicated his method on data from 2007 to the present and found that the Wrigley wind effect is stronger than ever. Over 508 games, here’s how pitchers performed in HR/FB rate, ERA, and slugging percentage allowed, split by Retrosheet’s wind field:

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A PITCHf/x look at the type of arsenal that fares well at altitude.

Most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Dan Rozenson writes about PITCHf/x and sabermetrics for Beyond the Box Score and Big Leagues Mag. Follow him on Twitter @SixToolPlayer.
 


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Ben and Sam discuss the Mariners' decision to bring in (and lower) Safeco Field's fences, then talk about what the seasons of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Norichika Aoki say about the difficulty of projecting the performance of Japanese imports.

Ben and Sam discuss the Mariners' decision to bring in (and lower) Safeco Field's fences, then talk about what the seasons of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Norichika Aoki say about the difficulty of projecting the performance of Japanese imports.

Episode 55: "Shrinking Safeco/The Unpredictability of Japanese Players"

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This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

April 27, 2012 3:00 am

The Stats Go Marching In: Scoring Runs, Revisited

5

Max Marchi

If you want to estimate run-scoring accurately, what are all the factors you need to take into account?

The forces that influence run-scoring
As a reader of this site, you would be suspicious of any article that compared a starter’s ERA and a reliever’s ERA without making any adjustment for role: it has been shown several times (including by yours truly) that the luxury of pitching in short bursts and not having to face the same batters multiple times in a single outing significantly deflates relievers’ ERAs.

Similarly, we can’t model run-scoring on a team level without accounting for all the factors at play at any particular time. Many elements combine to shape the distribution of runs scored. Some of them are quite obvious, while others remain hidden until they’re exposed by the most brilliant analysts. In the following paragraphs, I’ll try to evaluate as many of those components as possible in an attempt to isolate their individual effects on offensive outcomes.


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March 22, 2012 2:00 pm

Overthinking It: The Power of Park Effects

5

Ben Lindbergh

Which hitters and pitchers were helped or hurt most by their ballparks last season?

Along with its 162-game schedule, lack of a clock, and structure as a series of one-on-one player match-ups, baseball’s embrace of non-standardized surfaces sets it apart from the other major American team sports. Not only are some fields at sea level and others at altitude, some outdoors and others in domes, some made of natural grass and others of turf, but the depth of the outfields, the heights of the walls, and the sizes of foul territory vary by ballpark. These differences aren’t only aesthetic: they also make a significant impact on players’ statistics. To determine how good a given player is, we need to separate his own performance from the effects of his park.

That’s not always easy to do. Some of the players ranked between 301 and 350 on ESPN’s top 500 list have seen their superficial statistics significantly boosted or burdened by their ballparks. Justin Smoak’s first full season in the majors looks disappointing no matter what adjustments you make, but the 316th-place player’s line appears slightly worse because he spent so much time in spacious Safeco Field. It’s extremely hard for right-handed pull hitters to hit home runs in Seattle—as Adrian Beltre discovered before flourishing in more forgiving offensive environments in Boston and Arlington—but Safeco isn’t an easy assignment for slugging southpaws, either.

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Did SIERA beat xFIP in 2010?

When Eric Seidman and I introduced SIERA last winter, we ran a number of tests to determine if our theoretical foundation of run prevention led to a superior estimation of pitchers’ skill levels. While SIERA had a solid advantage at predicting future ERA over some ERA estimators and a last decimal-point small lead over xFIP, we ran the tests again after 2010 to ensure that it held a lead going forward. Although the regression formula did not incorporate future ERAs and should not have been biased, it's still important to test the following year to see how well SIERA held up.

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A new way of adjusting for a player's environment.

One of the fascinating things for baseball fans is the differences between ballparks--the role that the very park itself plays in baseball is probably unique in sports.  Different ballparks bring a very different character to the proceedings, and of course, they can even change the course of the events on the field.

It doesn’t help that MLB’s rules on the subject can be remarkably vague on the subject--at one point it states that “[a] distance of 320 feet or more along the foul lines, and 400 feet or more to center field is preferable,” which does little to indicate what might be allowed. This, of course, gives great latitude to ballpark designers, and they’ve taken advantage of that latitude.

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