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Articles Tagged PECOTA 

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09-22

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7

Pebble Hunting: The Great Big 'Beat PECOTA' Wrap
by
Sam Miller

04-12

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7

Pebble Hunting: How You Tried To Beat PECOTA
by
Sam Miller

03-31

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0

BP Wrigleyville
by
Henry Druschel

03-22

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10

Pebble Hunting: Sim City 1000000
by
Sam Miller

02-23

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6

Fifth Column: PECOTA Picks Philies to Win NL East
by
Michael Baumann

02-22

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7

Cold Takes: On PECOTA's Breakout Champ
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-19

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2

2016 Prospects: PECOTA Takes on The 101
by
Wilson Karaman

02-19

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8

Fifth Column: How to Project Julio Urias
by
Michael Baumann

02-18

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11

Life at the Margins: The NL's Gut-Punchiest Team Projection
by
Rian Watt

02-18

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1

Rubbing Mud: Between Now and the Free Agent Superclass
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-18

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3

Painting the Black: PECOTA and Seeing Red(s)
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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0

Painting the Black: The Cincinnati Reds Are the Anti-Royals
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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32

Players Prefer Presentation: Finding and Fixing Baseball's Worst Positions
by
Meg Rowley

02-17

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6

Prospectus Feature: The Way-Too-Early Baseball Awards Breakdown
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-17

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4

Outta Left Field: The PECOTA Comp Romp
by
Dustin Palmateer

02-17

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5

The Lineup Card: Our Favorite PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-16

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7

Baseball Therapy: Do Bad PECOTA Projections Make Teams Mad?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-16

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39

Pebble Hunting: PECOTA Hates the Royals, Part II
by
Sam Miller

02-16

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0

Fifth Column: How To Make Money Betting on PECOTA
by
Michael Baumann

12-18

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9

Rubbing Mud: The Best Position To Buy
by
Matthew Trueblood

10-29

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1

BP Unfiltered: On PECOTA, the Royals, and 72 Wins
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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1

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 5 Preview and PECOTA Odds
by
Jeffrey Paternostro

07-24

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10

Sometimes They Surprise You
by
Rian Watt

07-16

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9

PECOTA Day 2.0
by
Mike Gianella

03-12

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5

Rubbing Mud: The Rotation That Might Do Almost Anything
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-26

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0

Painting the Black: The Other Side of PECOTA's Crush on the Rays
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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7

Daisy Cutter: PECOTA vs. the White Sox, Take 12
by
Sahadev Sharma

02-13

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5

Pebble Hunting: Testing PECOTA's Memory
by
Sam Miller

01-29

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41

Prospectus Feature: The PECOTA Release
by
Mike Gianella and Rob McQuown

01-29

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Science of Forecasting
by
Nate Silver

01-28

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16

Skewed Left: Favorite PECOTA Comps
by
Zachary Levine

01-26

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2

Daisy Cutter: (A)nother (S)eason (T)hreatening (R)ecords (O)f (S)trikeouts
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-23

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14

The Lineup Card: Eight Intriguing PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-23

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-19

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Hitters Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-16

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10

Moonshot: Projecting Uncertainty
by
Robert Arthur and Will Larson

12-03

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21

Moonshot: The Power of Projections
by
Robert Arthur

06-26

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 479: A Move Each Contender Should Make
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-19

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12

Overthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has Missed
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-19

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5

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 474: The Rest-of-Season Projections Test
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-18

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16

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

06-06

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14

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-22

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8

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-16

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14

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-08

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5

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-01

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8

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

04-18

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8

Baseball Prospectus News: New Stat Reports and Site Upgrades
by
Rob McQuown

04-15

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35

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

03-31

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0

Painting the Black: The Mystery Men of Opening Day
by
R.J. Anderson

03-27

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11

Skewed Left: PECOTA vs. Vegas
by
Zachary Levine

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The results of our preseason experiment in expectations and perception.

Earlier this year, we released PECOTA projections for every major-league baseball player, and then I asked you to beat those projections. The instructions were simple: Find players you thought PECOTA was too optimistic on, and bet the under; find players you thought PECOTA was too pessimistic on, and bet the over. We called it a game and I promised to learn something from it. Here we are nearing the end of the season, so I’ll fulfill my obligation presently.

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The players we were collectively most confident about.

Everything is gone. Just gone. There were no survivors. Here. There. Nobody knew who started it.

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March 31, 2016 6:00 am

BP Wrigleyville

0

Henry Druschel

The latest installment in a never-ending series: Why are projections so sour on the Cubs' bullpen?

a

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How many simulations does it take for the Rockies to win 106 games, or the Dodgers to lose 121?

If PECOTA were a sentient Baseball Prospectus reader, I bet it would mostly ignore our projected team win totals. Putting a single number on a team’s upcoming season is antithetical to what PECOTA tries to do. It doesn’t actually see the Royals as a 75-win team, or the Cubs as a 94-win team; it sees them both as collections of players who are individually more likely to do some things than others, and who are collectively more likely to do some things than others. If forced—and, really, if you think about how many steps it takes us to get from Omar Infante’s individual projections to a one-number team projection for the Royals, “forced” might be exactly the word you’d use—PECOTA will give you a most likely number for the team. But that specific number is not that likely, and it's not what PECOTA wants you to take away from this.

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Or, at least, it allows the possibility.

Or at least it could if you wanted it to badly enough.

Right now, PECOTA has the Phillies in line for a 65-win season, which would’ve lost the division last year by 25 games. Or rather, the 50th-percentile projections for PECOTA say this—what if everything went right for the Phillies this year, and every player on the team hit his 90th-percentile projection? How many games would the Phillies win then?

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Jesse Hahn has, among starting pitchers, the highest breakout percentage heading into this year. Is there something to see here?

Let’s play an old game of Rob Neyer’s. Compare these two anonymous people:

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What the projections say about the immediate contributions of the top close-to-the-majors prospects.

Making sense of the rookie projections for the prospects featured on this year’s BP 101 isn’t as straight-forward a task as the raw numbers indicate. There’s interplay here – interplay! – with opportunity. While a handful of these guys project to log significant billable hours in The Show, the outlook for even those prospects currently installed in the high minors is extremely context-dependent. Given the depth chart uncertainties and shorter (relative) professional track records, PECOTA tends to skew conservative by trade in its handling of younger players, and that is easily the first takeaway when glancing at the 101 projections.

The Hitters
Per their respective depth charts, just two of the hitting prospects on our list are expected to log full campaigns in starting roles, but the good news is that both should come off reasonably well in their full-season debuts. Catching glimpse of the Andy Marte comp may be enough to send a couple elderly Dodger fans to the hospital, but otherwise readers will note a pretty swell outlook on balance for our top prospect, Corey Seager. Swell, at least, as far as outlooks for 22-year-old rookies go. Seager’s .272 TAv paces all of the rookie hitters likely to muster 300 plate appearances, and the defensive metrics of his debut were good enough to call for neutral value at the six-spot in a full season. PECOTA likes him for a three-win season, which would immediately install him among the game’s elite shortstops if it indeed comes to pass.


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Step 1: Read the Old Testament. Step 2: ???? Step 3: Still ????

The story of Uriah the Hittite is a fairly famous one, even if Uriah himself is a relatively obscure name. Uriah was one of the Mighty Warriors of King David—the same David who killed Goliath in single combat, and later became ruler of a kingdom whose prosperity was rivaled only by the breadth of the bad sports metaphors he and Goliath would generate for thousands of years.

The famous part of the story is that David, while on the roof of his palace, saw an incredibly beautiful woman bathing one day, and had her brought to him so that they could do something that gets talked about all the time in the Bible but people in church tell you not to do. This woman was Bathsheba, immortalized in art and song such as Leonard Cohen’s “Hallelujah,” and, it came out later, she was the wife of Uriah, one of David’s top soldiers.

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February 18, 2016 6:00 am

Life at the Margins: The NL's Gut-Punchiest Team Projection

11

Rian Watt

The Diamondbacks spent the offseason spending big and trying to take the next step. Why's PECOTA such a downer about their chances?

Earlier this month a strange feeling came over me: I began to be intrigued by the Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s hard to say exactly why, in retrospect. Possibly it’s because, when a team decides to spend an amount equivalent to 2 percent of its home-state budget (yes, really) on a single starting pitcher, you begin to get the sense that it’s trying to say something.

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How PECOTA sees the historical free agency class of 2018-2019 changing.

A little over two months ago, with the current Hot Stove still more or less at its hottest, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports cast his eyes beyond it, three years into the future. What has been dubbed the SuperClass of 2018 caught Passan’s attention, and clearly, that of several team executives across the league. The resulting article named no fewer than 40 players of note who could reach free agency 32 months from now, and Passan posited that it could be a seismic event for baseball, from a competitive perspective, a financial perspective, a labor perspective, and a global-interest perspective.

As far as that goes, Passan is right. The sheer star power of a class headed by Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, Andrew McCutchen, Jason Heyward, Jose Fernandez, and Matt Harvey could outshine all previous free-agent classes, even the bountiful one that is just winding down. Passan talked about the likelihood that the prospective class could affect teams’ strategies over all of the winters between now and then, including this one, and about how it might change the priorities we see each side pursue in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement later this year. He’s (mostly, anyway) right about that, too.

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The Royals may be the most famous prediction PECOTA has gotten wrong recently, but the Reds have seen the opposite issue.

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA's preseason projections. In keeping with tradition, the algorithm has again seemingly undersold the champion Royals, who have nudged aside the White Sox to become the symbol for outpacing expectations. That status is well-earned: over the past three seasons, the Royals have won a majors-leading 44 games more than PECOTA figured they would. Along the way, the Royals have birthed countless thinkpieces and arguments about every facet of their success: whether it's by design; whether it's sustainable; whether it's duplicable; and so on.

At the soul of it is the truth that everyone wants to be the Royals (the postseason version, at least). The transitive property, then, suggests that nobody wants to be the anti-Royals, a role filled in recent years by the Reds. No team has underperformed its PECOTA projections over the last three seasons by more games than the Reds: they won two fewer games than expected in 2013, seven fewer in 2014, and 15 fewer in 2015. Add those failures together, and the Reds have lost 24 games more than PECOTA believed they would—or six more than any other team over the same stretch:

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How the Reds have underperformed their projections more than any other team.

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus released PECOTA's preseason projections. In keeping with tradition, the algorithm has again seemingly undersold the champion Royals, who have nudged aside the White Sox to become the symbol for outpacing expectations. That status is well earned: Over the past three seasons, the Royals have won a majors-leading 44 games more than PECOTA figured they would. Along the way, the Royals have birthed countless thinkpieces and arguments about every facet of their success: whether it's by design; whether it's sustainable; whether it's duplicable; and so on.

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