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Articles Tagged PECOTA 

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12-03

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20

Moonshot: The Power of Projections
by
Robert Arthur

06-26

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 479: A Move Each Contender Should Make
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-19

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12

Overthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has Missed
by
Ben Lindbergh

06-19

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5

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 474: The Rest-of-Season Projections Test
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-18

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16

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

06-06

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14

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-22

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8

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-16

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14

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-08

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5

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

05-01

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8

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

04-18

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8

Baseball Prospectus News: New Stat Reports and Site Upgrades
by
Rob McQuown

04-15

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35

PECOTA Takes on Prospects
by
Andrew Koo

03-31

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0

Painting the Black: The Mystery Men of Opening Day
by
R.J. Anderson

03-27

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11

Skewed Left: PECOTA vs. Vegas
by
Zachary Levine

03-12

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61

Baseball Prospectus News: 10-Year Projections, UPSIDE, Percentiles, and Comparables
by
Rob McQuown

02-28

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

02-24

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18

Pebble Hunting: The Position Players Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

02-13

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9

Skewed Left: Fun with 2014 PECOTA Comparables
by
Zachary Levine

02-13

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24

Feature Focus: PECOTA Weighted Means Spreadsheet
by
Colin Wyers

02-04

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18

Overthinking It: Parsing the PECOTAs
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-04

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1

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 378: The PECOTA Day Podcast
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

02-04

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94

Baseball Prospectus News: Reintroducing PECOTA, the Depth Charts, PFM, and DraftAid
by
Rob McQuown

01-31

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8

The BP Wayback Machine: Which Players and Teams Look Best Over the Next Half-Decade?
by
Nate Silver

06-27

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7

Feature Focus: Player Cards
by
Colin Wyers

06-18

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4

Overthinking It: The Most Surprising Team Performances So Far
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-08

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18

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTAs
by
Colin Wyers

04-01

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6

Pebble Hunting: The Astros' Best-Case Scenario vs. The Angels' Worst-Case Scenario
by
Sam Miller

03-28

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23

BP Announcements: PECOTA Percentiles Are Here
by
Colin Wyers

03-07

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15

Skewed Left: PECOTA vs. Vegas
by
Zachary Levine

03-04

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6

Skewed Left: It's No Good to Get Old (Except for These Guys)
by
Zachary Levine

02-20

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40

The Socratic Approach to PECOTA
by
Ben Lindbergh and Colin Wyers

02-12

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14

Skewed Left: PECOTA's Projected Bests and Worsts
by
Zachary Levine

02-11

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103

Baseball Prospectus News: Now Arriving: PECOTA, Depth Charts, and the PFM
by
Colin Wyers and Rob McQuown

02-08

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3

The BP Wayback Machine: 2003 PECOTA Preview: The American League
by
Nate Silver

01-28

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35

BP Announcements: The Annual, PECOTA, and Fantasy Subscriptions UPDATED
by
Ben Lindbergh

01-18

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 122: PECOTA Projects Elite Draft Picks from the Past/Should Scouts Fear FIELDf/x?
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

01-18

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1

The BP Wayback Machine: Projecting the Top of the Crop
by
Nate Silver

10-15

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1

Playoff Prospectus: NLCS Game Two Preview: Cardinals at Giants
by
Daniel Rathman

08-31

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: The Clemens Signing
by
Joe Sheehan

07-17

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45

Overthinking It: PECOTA's First-Half Hits and Misses
by
Ben Lindbergh

05-08

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9

BP Announcements: Rest-of-Season PECOTA Now Available
by
Colin Wyers

03-20

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4

Preseason Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 3/20/12
by
Michael Street

03-08

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45

Reintroducing PECOTA: House of Cards
by
Colin Wyers

03-07

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7

Preseason Value Picks: Second, Short, and Third for 3/7/12
by
Michael Jong

03-06

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3

Preseason Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 3/6/12
by
Michael Street

02-28

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7

Preseason Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 2/28/12
by
Michael Street

02-21

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26

Preseason Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 2/21/12
by
Michael Street

02-14

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22

Preseason Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 2/14/12
by
Michael Street

02-08

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150

Reintroducing PECOTA: The Weighting is the Hardest Part
by
Colin Wyers

12-15

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6

The BP Wayback Machine: PECOTA Takes on Pitching Prospects and Left-Handed Pitchers
by
Nate Silver

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December 3, 2014 6:00 am

Moonshot: The Power of Projections

20

Robert Arthur

The error spectrum of projections shows the limitations of analysis, or the progress we can still make.

It’s around the time that projection engines are being tweaked, updated, and improved, in anticipation of the release of new predictions for the coming year. At Baseball Prospectus, Rob McQuown is hard at work ironing out the kinks for this year’s release of PECOTA. Given the present focus on predictions, the time is ripe for a retrospective look at how the projections fared last year.

There’s no better source for a large-scale comparison of projection algorithms than Will Larson’s Baseball Projection Project, which I will use for this article. Larson’s page houses the old predictions of as many different sources as he can get his hands on, including methods as diverse as Steamer, the Fan Projections a FanGraphs, and venerable old Marcel. It’s a rich storehouse of information concerning the ways in which we can fail to foresee baseball.

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Ben and Sam banter about seeing no-hitters and team philosophies, then discuss potential solutions for each contender's biggest need.

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June 19, 2014 10:05 am

Overthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has Missed

12

Ben Lindbergh

Hitters and pitchers who've defied their preseason PECOTAs, and players who've changed the projection system's mind.

Among the things a Baseball Prospectus subscriber might like to know, as we approach the midway point of the season, are the names of the players who’ve roundly beaten (or fallen fall short of) their preseason PECOTA projections, and the names of the players who will continue to do so. The first list of names is much easier to provide than the second. In Russell Carleton’s article today, he alludes to some relevant research by Mitchel Lichtman, who recently studied the subject of breakouts. Here’s how Russell explains what Lichtman did:

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Ben and Sam identify the players who've most overperformed or underperformed their PECOTAs and discuss what they'll do next.

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June 18, 2014 6:00 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

16

Andrew Koo

Reviewing the prospects whom positional adjustments don't help.

Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Third Base | Shortstop


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June 6, 2014 6:04 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

14

Andrew Koo

Bring on the elite infield athletes.

Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Third Base


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May 22, 2014 6:00 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

8

Andrew Koo

What does PECOTA make of Joey Gallo, Miguel Sano, and the rest of the hot-corner crop?

Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base | Second Base

Onward (and left-ward) we go.



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May 16, 2014 6:00 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

14

Andrew Koo

PECOTA tackles a position where the offensive bar is set significantly lower than it was in last week's installment.

Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher | First Base

Here’s a chart of production by position in 2013:

Position

PA

TAv

WARP

1B

20581

.281

63.6

2B

20638

.261

63.0

Last week, I talked about the offense required from first basemen to offset their negative positional adjustment. This week, we explore second base, whose occupants hit 20 points of True Average worse last season but produced the same total WARP. This demonstrates the defensive gap we’re familiar with while also illustrating the low offensive bar for second basemen. One needed to produce a TAv of only .261 while playing average defense to be a “league average” second baseman last year (league-average TAv is always scaled to be .260). Gregor Blanco personified the league average hitter in 2013—and he had the 114th-best TAv out of 141 qualified batters.

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May 8, 2014 6:00 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

5

Andrew Koo

There was only one first baseman on BP's top 101 prospects list. Which players at the position does PECOTA like?

Series introduction and methodology
Previous positions: Catcher

First base is the safe haven of offense-only players who need a position. Of the league’s 30 current first basemen (the team leaders of PAs at the position), eight primarily played different positions in the minor leagues. They’re the usual bat-first players whose gloves demanded a move: Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds, etc. For prospects, relegation to first base means they have nowhere else to go. If their hitting drops off in the slightest, they’ll have nothing else to compensate with, and they’ll be out of baseball.


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May 1, 2014 6:00 am

PECOTA Takes on Prospects

8

Andrew Koo

Does PECOTA love catching prospects? And if so, which ones?

Does PECOTA love catchers?

After we released the PECOTA Top 100 prospects list last week, a few commenters remarked on PECOTA’s apparent catcher leanings. Eleven of them appeared on the list, some higher than nationally beloved prospects. How dare PECOTA! In comparison, Jason Parkstop 101 featured eight catchers, suggesting a small discrepancy in the position distribution of PECOTA’s rankings.

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PECOTA appears at MLB.com, and BP publishes new stat reports and updates to PITCHf/x products and player cards.

Often, the content on the Baseball Prospectus website is driven by data collected during the research leading to an article. And readers can now benefit from some recent research on a daily basis, as six new reports have been added to the sortable statistics page, all of which will be updated daily throughout the season.

Player Pace Reports

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A statistical take on top prospects.

When I reread Nate Silver’s PECOTA Takes on Prospects series, three themes emerged. One, minor-league statistics are pretty damn good at predicting future performance. Two, so many factors can derail a prediction, particularly for young prospects. Three—which doubles as a disclaimer for this series—I’m not Nate Silver. Apologies in advance.

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