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Articles Tagged PECOTA 

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06-16

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2

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 12
by
Mark Barry

06-02

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0

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 10
by
Mark Barry

05-26

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2

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 9
by
Mark Barry

05-12

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4

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 7
by
Mark Barry

05-10

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1

Banjo Hitter: Beyond the 90th Percentile
by
Aaron Gleeman

04-28

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13

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 5
by
Mark Barry

03-03

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7

Fantasy Freestyle: PECOTA, the PFM, My Bid Limits, and You
by
Mike Gianella

03-02

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1

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA vs. Vegas
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-24

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6

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Pitchers
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-23

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6

Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-22

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6

Rubbing Mud: Carlos Martinez, Tunnels, and PECOTA
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-21

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2

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Hitters
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-16

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10

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA and the Twins, Sitting in a Tree
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-13

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0

2017 Prospects: PECOTA Takes on The 101
by
Wilson Karaman

02-10

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3

Rubbing Mud: Miguel Sano Through PECOTA's Eyes
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-09

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4

Rubbing Mud: Yadier Molina Through PECOTA's Eyes
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-07

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10

Banjo Hitter: Age-Old Questions
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-07

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1

Cold Takes: Cole Hamels Is Not Being Honest
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-07

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16

Flu-Like Symptoms: PECOTA and Moving Markets
by
Rob Mains

09-22

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Great Big 'Beat PECOTA' Wrap
by
Sam Miller

04-12

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7

Pebble Hunting: How You Tried To Beat PECOTA
by
Sam Miller

03-31

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0

BP Wrigleyville
by
Henry Druschel

03-22

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10

Pebble Hunting: Sim City 1000000
by
Sam Miller

02-23

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6

Fifth Column: PECOTA Picks Philies to Win NL East
by
Michael Baumann

02-22

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7

Cold Takes: On PECOTA's Breakout Champ
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-19

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2

2016 Prospects: PECOTA Takes on The 101
by
Wilson Karaman

02-19

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8

Fifth Column: How to Project Julio Urias
by
Michael Baumann

02-18

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11

Life at the Margins: The NL's Gut-Punchiest Team Projection
by
Rian Watt

02-18

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1

Rubbing Mud: Between Now and the Free Agent Superclass
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-18

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3

Painting the Black: PECOTA and Seeing Red(s)
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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0

Painting the Black: The Cincinnati Reds Are the Anti-Royals
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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32

Players Prefer Presentation: Finding and Fixing Baseball's Worst Positions
by
Meg Rowley

02-17

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6

Prospectus Feature: The Way-Too-Early Baseball Awards Breakdown
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-17

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4

Outta Left Field: The PECOTA Comp Romp
by
Dustin Palmateer

02-17

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5

The Lineup Card: Our Favorite PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-16

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7

Baseball Therapy: Do Bad PECOTA Projections Make Teams Mad?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-16

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39

Pebble Hunting: PECOTA Hates the Royals, Part II
by
Sam Miller

02-16

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0

Fifth Column: How To Make Money Betting on PECOTA
by
Michael Baumann

12-18

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9

Rubbing Mud: The Best Position To Buy
by
Matthew Trueblood

10-29

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1

BP Unfiltered: On PECOTA, the Royals, and 72 Wins
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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1

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 5 Preview and PECOTA Odds
by
Jeffrey Paternostro

07-24

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10

Sometimes They Surprise You
by
Rian Watt

07-16

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9

PECOTA Day 2.0
by
Mike Gianella

03-12

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5

Rubbing Mud: The Rotation That Might Do Almost Anything
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-26

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0

Painting the Black: The Other Side of PECOTA's Crush on the Rays
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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7

Daisy Cutter: PECOTA vs. the White Sox, Take 12
by
Sahadev Sharma

02-13

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5

Pebble Hunting: Testing PECOTA's Memory
by
Sam Miller

01-29

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41

Prospectus Feature: The PECOTA Release
by
Mike Gianella and Rob McQuown

01-29

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Science of Forecasting
by
Nate Silver

01-28

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16

Skewed Left: Favorite PECOTA Comps
by
Zachary Levine

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June 16, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 12

2

Mark Barry

Corey Kluber is described as robot-like for several reasons, including his dependability. So start him twice. The same goes for Clayton Kershaw and Jon Lester.

It's time to preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. As the old wrestling promoters would always say: “Card Subject to Change,” because injuries and tinkering managers can make this less than a science. Should new information present itself, we can go over it in the comments.

Most of these recommendations are based on a combination of ADP/auction price and PECOTA projections for opponent strength. As the season progresses and we get more concrete data points for how the pitchers and their opponents perform, the formula will evolve into a performance-based projection. For more information on some key terms—Auto-Start, Start, Consider and Sit—click here.

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June 2, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 10

0

Mark Barry

Carlos Martinez, Max Scherzer, Chris Archer and Justin Verlander (yes, even him)—your table is ready.

It's time to preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. As the old wrestling promoters would always say: “Card Subject to Change,” because injuries and tinkering managers can make this less than a science. Should new information present itself, we can go over it in the comments.

Most of these recommendations are based on a combination of ADP/auction price and PECOTA projections for opponent strength. As the season progresses and we get more concrete data points for how the pitchers and their opponents perform, the formula will evolve into a performance-based projection. For more information on some key terms—Auto-Start, Start, Consider and Sit—click here.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 26, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 9

2

Mark Barry

It's a rough week in the NL, where no one with two scheduled outings is worthy of automatic, fore-sure, consecutive starts. Carlos Carrasco and Chris Sale, conversely, are ready to pitch two.

Every Friday, we preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Hopefully that gives enough insight to make educated lineup moves and FAAB decisions over the weekend. As the old wrestling promoters would always say, “Card Subject to Change," because lots can happen between the time this goes up and first pitch. Unfortunately—weather, injuries, and tinkering managers make this less than a science. I’ll do my best, though, and should new information present itself after this posts, we can go over it in the comments. We’ll crowdsource this as well, so if you hear anything, feel free to comment and we all can offer our takes, hot or not.

Here’s how this works. The pitchers will be split by league using these categories:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

May 12, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 7

4

Mark Barry

You might be uncertain as to whom to start, but Dirty Harry, Zack Morris, Pete Campbell and Slim Shady know.

On Fridays, we preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Hopefully that gives enough insight to make educated lineup decisions and FAAB decisions over the weekend. As the old wrestling promoters would always say “Card Subject to Change"—because lots can happen between the time this post goes up and first pitch. Unfortunately, weather, injuries, and tinkering managers make this less than a science. I’ll do my best, though, and should new information present itself after this gets posted, we can go over it in the comments. We’ll crowdsource it as well, so if you hear anything, feel free to comment and we all can offer our takes, hot or not.

Here’s how this works. The pitchers will be split by league using these categories:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This season is old enough to know better, but some early hitting performances really stand out.

I know it’s still too early in the season to draw meaningful conclusions about much of anything because my beloved Twins have a winning record, but we are far enough along that only seven hitters with 100 or more plate appearances are beating their 90th percentile PECOTA projections by at least 200 points of OPS. Two of those seven, Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman, are great hitters off to especially strong starts, leaving five genuine, out-of-nowhere surprises among full-time position players. By the end of the season they may all have turned back into pumpkins, but in the meantime my curiosity is piqued.

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April 28, 2017 6:00 am

Fantasy Starting Pitcher Planner: Week 5

13

Mark Barry

Noah Syndergaard is an auto-start (unless he's not). So it's going to be one of those kind of weeks.

Every Friday we preview the hurlers scheduled for two starts in the upcoming week. Hopefully that will give enough insight to make educated lineup moves and FAAB decisions over the weekend. As the old wrestling promoters would always say “Card Subject to Change," because lots can happen between the time this goes up and first pitch. Unfortunately, weather, injuries, and tinkering managers make this less than a science. I’ll do my best, though, and should new information present itself after this posts, we can go over it in the comments. We’ll crowdsource this as well, so if you hear anything, feel free to comment and we all can offer our takes, hot or not.

The pitchers are split by league using these categories:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

A look at how to make the most of BP's offerings in tandem with Mike's bid limits.

This column is designed to address the questions I commonly get about my published bid limits here at Baseball Prospectus, how they’re different from the prices in our Player Forecast Manager (PFM), and most importantly why they are useful. It would be impossible to address every question our readers have had about my pricing modeling versus what the PFM is and what it does, so I’ll start with a few of the most common questions our readers have had about both.

Are you planning on using the awful Q&A format for this article?

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Projection systems and oddsmakers have a lot more in common than you might think.

Picture a veteran oddsmaker grinding away in a smoke-filled backroom, sweating over stacks of scribbled notes between puffs from a cigar. He knows all and trusts his gut feeling to come up with the casino’s lines for each day. That’s a romantic notion we’ve all seen portrayed in movies and on television, but it’s very far from reality these days. If there is a backroom, it’s more likely to be smoke-free and filled with computer monitors and advanced degrees. Analytics, not guts, drive sports-betting lines.

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Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.

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February 23, 2017 6:00 am

Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope

6

Patrick Dubuque

Tampa Bay may feel like a bad team, but is PECOTA nuts to think the Rays are decent?

Though they aren’t mentioned in the same breath as the Royals and the Orioles, the Rays have revealed a bit of a weakness deep in the cog-spinning heart of PECOTA. Last year our robotic pal picked the plucky, underpowered Boys in Columbia Blue to win the AL East, ahead of the favored Red Sox and Blue Jays. Needless to say, it wasn’t the system’s finest moment, as they finished tied for the second-worst record in baseball, ahead of only the Twins.

Computers know neither love nor regret, however, so PECOTA has returned in 2017 to slot the Rays in at a healthy (if more cautious) 84 wins, a total that places them a single game out of the playoff picture. If there’s something projections hate about the Orioles, something in their bullpen management or their pluck that hides amongst the numbers, cynics claim that the opposite is true of the Rays. Look only at the Steven Souza trade, a prospect adored by the system at near-Wieters levels, as aligning with some priority the team itself places, to find the natural flaws.

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Taking a deep dive into the Cardinals right-hander's repertoire, sequencing, tunnels, and overall approach.

In one sense, Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is an easy pitcher to understand. He can touch 100 miles per hour with his fastball. He throws both a four-seamer and a sinker, has a slider and a changeup to go with them, and all four pitches could be counted as above average. He’s fiercely competitive and a great athlete. Bob Gibson was a bigger guy than Martinez at a time when everyone else on the field was smaller. Gibson had only two dominant pitches, and rarely even bothered with others. He’s also a Hall of Famer. Still, it’s really hard not to compare Martinez to Gibson.

In another sense, though, there’s a whole lot we don’t know about Martinez. No, that’s not true. We know a ton about Martinez, far more than we would have known 10 years ago. Yet, we would have been much more confident in our assessments of Martinez then than we are now. Sometimes, even valuable new information only makes the essential truth about something feel further beyond our reach.

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Which young hitters does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

Read the full article...

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