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Articles Tagged PECOTA 

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02-24

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6

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Pitchers
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-23

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6

Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-22

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6

Rubbing Mud: Carlos Martinez, Tunnels, and PECOTA
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-21

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2

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA's Breakout Bets: Hitters
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-16

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10

Banjo Hitter: PECOTA and the Twins, Sitting in a Tree
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-13

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0

2017 Prospects: PECOTA Takes on The 101
by
Wilson Karaman

02-10

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3

Rubbing Mud: Miguel Sano Through PECOTA's Eyes
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-09

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4

Rubbing Mud: Yadier Molina Through PECOTA's Eyes
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-07

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10

Banjo Hitter: Age-Old Questions
by
Aaron Gleeman

02-07

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1

Cold Takes: Cole Hamels Is Not Being Honest
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-07

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16

Flu-Like Symptoms: PECOTA and Moving Markets
by
Rob Mains

09-22

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8

Pebble Hunting: The Great Big 'Beat PECOTA' Wrap
by
Sam Miller

04-12

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7

Pebble Hunting: How You Tried To Beat PECOTA
by
Sam Miller

03-31

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0

BP Wrigleyville
by
Henry Druschel

03-22

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10

Pebble Hunting: Sim City 1000000
by
Sam Miller

02-23

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6

Fifth Column: PECOTA Picks Philies to Win NL East
by
Michael Baumann

02-22

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7

Cold Takes: On PECOTA's Breakout Champ
by
Patrick Dubuque

02-19

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2

2016 Prospects: PECOTA Takes on The 101
by
Wilson Karaman

02-19

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8

Fifth Column: How to Project Julio Urias
by
Michael Baumann

02-18

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11

Life at the Margins: The NL's Gut-Punchiest Team Projection
by
Rian Watt

02-18

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1

Rubbing Mud: Between Now and the Free Agent Superclass
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-18

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3

Painting the Black: PECOTA and Seeing Red(s)
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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0

Painting the Black: The Cincinnati Reds Are the Anti-Royals
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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32

Players Prefer Presentation: Finding and Fixing Baseball's Worst Positions
by
Meg Rowley

02-17

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6

Prospectus Feature: The Way-Too-Early Baseball Awards Breakdown
by
Bryan Grosnick

02-17

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4

Outta Left Field: The PECOTA Comp Romp
by
Dustin Palmateer

02-17

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5

The Lineup Card: Our Favorite PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

02-16

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7

Baseball Therapy: Do Bad PECOTA Projections Make Teams Mad?
by
Russell A. Carleton

02-16

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39

Pebble Hunting: PECOTA Hates the Royals, Part II
by
Sam Miller

02-16

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0

Fifth Column: How To Make Money Betting on PECOTA
by
Michael Baumann

12-18

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9

Rubbing Mud: The Best Position To Buy
by
Matthew Trueblood

10-29

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1

BP Unfiltered: On PECOTA, the Royals, and 72 Wins
by
Sam Miller

10-15

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1

Playoff Prospectus: NLDS Game 5 Preview and PECOTA Odds
by
Jeffrey Paternostro

07-24

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10

Sometimes They Surprise You
by
Rian Watt

07-16

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9

PECOTA Day 2.0
by
Mike Gianella

03-12

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5

Rubbing Mud: The Rotation That Might Do Almost Anything
by
Matthew Trueblood

02-26

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0

Painting the Black: The Other Side of PECOTA's Crush on the Rays
by
R.J. Anderson

02-18

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7

Daisy Cutter: PECOTA vs. the White Sox, Take 12
by
Sahadev Sharma

02-13

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5

Pebble Hunting: Testing PECOTA's Memory
by
Sam Miller

01-29

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41

Prospectus Feature: The PECOTA Release
by
Mike Gianella and Rob McQuown

01-29

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: The Science of Forecasting
by
Nate Silver

01-28

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16

Skewed Left: Favorite PECOTA Comps
by
Zachary Levine

01-26

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2

Daisy Cutter: (A)nother (S)eason (T)hreatening (R)ecords (O)f (S)trikeouts
by
Sahadev Sharma

01-23

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14

The Lineup Card: Eight Intriguing PECOTA Projections
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-23

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15

Pebble Hunting: The Pitchers Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-19

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13

Pebble Hunting: The Hitters Who Changed PECOTA's Mind
by
Sam Miller

01-16

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10

Moonshot: Projecting Uncertainty
by
Robert Arthur and Will Larson

12-03

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21

Moonshot: The Power of Projections
by
Robert Arthur

06-26

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0

BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 479: A Move Each Contender Should Make
by
Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller

06-19

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12

Overthinking It: The Players PECOTA Has Missed
by
Ben Lindbergh

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Which young pitchers does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

PECOTA assigns each player a “breakout rate” for the upcoming season based on their odds of beating their established level of recent performance by at least 20 percent, with historical player comps serving as an important factor. Because the entire system is based on regressed-to-the-mean, 50th percentile projections, breakout rate identifies the players most likely to leave that in the dust for their 70th, 80th, and 90th percentile upsides.

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February 23, 2017 6:00 am

Cold Takes: A Single Ray of Hope

6

Patrick Dubuque

Tampa Bay may feel like a bad team, but is PECOTA nuts to think the Rays are decent?

Though they aren’t mentioned in the same breath as the Royals and the Orioles, the Rays have revealed a bit of a weakness deep in the cog-spinning heart of PECOTA. Last year our robotic pal picked the plucky, underpowered Boys in Columbia Blue to win the AL East, ahead of the favored Red Sox and Blue Jays. Needless to say, it wasn’t the system’s finest moment, as they finished tied for the second-worst record in baseball, ahead of only the Twins.

Computers know neither love nor regret, however, so PECOTA has returned in 2017 to slot the Rays in at a healthy (if more cautious) 84 wins, a total that places them a single game out of the playoff picture. If there’s something projections hate about the Orioles, something in their bullpen management or their pluck that hides amongst the numbers, cynics claim that the opposite is true of the Rays. Look only at the Steven Souza trade, a prospect adored by the system at near-Wieters levels, as aligning with some priority the team itself places, to find the natural flaws.

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Taking a deep dive into the Cardinals right-hander's repertoire, sequencing, tunnels, and overall approach.

In one sense, Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is an easy pitcher to understand. He can touch 100 miles per hour with his fastball. He throws both a four-seamer and a sinker, has a slider and a changeup to go with them, and all four pitches could be counted as above average. He’s fiercely competitive and a great athlete. Bob Gibson was a bigger guy than Martinez at a time when everyone else on the field was smaller. Gibson had only two dominant pitches, and rarely even bothered with others. He’s also a Hall of Famer. Still, it’s really hard not to compare Martinez to Gibson.

In another sense, though, there’s a whole lot we don’t know about Martinez. No, that’s not true. We know a ton about Martinez, far more than we would have known 10 years ago. Yet, we would have been much more confident in our assessments of Martinez then than we are now. Sometimes, even valuable new information only makes the essential truth about something feel further beyond our reach.

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Which young hitters does PECOTA see as having breakout potential in 2017?

“Breakout” can mean different things to different people. It can mean a prospect or untested young big leaguer establishing himself as a valuable regular. It can mean a relative unknown becoming an impact player. It can mean a well-known star making the leap to full-blown superstar, perhaps even following up a “breakout” one year with an even bigger “breakout” the next. Your own definition may vary, but in PECOTA’s case “breakout” is all about out-performing track records.

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PECOTA projects Minnesota to improve by an MLB-high 21 games. How?

Every year around this time Baseball Prospectus releases the full slate of PECOTA projections for players and teams. And every year around this time those projections upset a handful of fan bases that feel disrespected or overlooked by the numbers that were crunched. Some fan bases are briefly annoyed and then brush it off, while others—and especially those like the Orioles and Royals who’ve been through this same dance with PECOTA several times before—take serious offense. Such is the life of a system designed to predict (or at least project) the future.

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What the projections say about the immediate contributions of the top close-to-the-majors prospects.

I’ll start my look at how PECOTA is treating this year’s crop of top prospects from the BP 101 by regurgitating my introductory warning from last year:

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PECOTA loves Miguel Sano, but that might be because it doesn't know any better.

You are perfectly entitled to be optimistic about Miguel Sano. That’s the most important thing to say. Sano was a huge prospect when he signed out of the Dominican Republic. Everyone believed he would eventually hit for enormous power, retain some thick-bodied athleticism, and generally display a natural gift for baseball that would help him overcome his considerable deficiencies. That remains a possible outcome, and indeed the fact that he’s risen all the way through the minors and played a bit more than a year’s worth of big-league games while making unbelievably hard contact has only boosted the odds of that.

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Are the Cardinals and their long-sturdy catcher starting to show some cracks?

All winter, Isaac Bennett (whose work you’ve seen at BP Wrigleyville) and I have carried on baseball talk via Google Hangouts. We agree on more things than not, which is something neither of us can say about most of the other people with whom we get to consistently converse about this kind of stuff, so the conversations are usually easy. Two things divide us pretty sharply, though, at least at the moment. They are:

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PECOTA helps pick the best player in baseball for every age, from Julio Urias to Bartolo Colon and all the superstars in between.

I have a vivid memory from my little league days of sitting in the dugout after practice and listening intently as a teammate read Baseball America’s rankings of the best players in the country by age. The best player on our team, who later went on to play Division I ball, was annoyed by the notion of a 13-year-old somewhere else getting so much attention for what couldn’t possibly be (he figured) superior talent. The sixth-best player on our team, who later went on to write this article, found it fascinating that there was a 13-year-old so good at baseball that they were being written about in magazines.

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Cole Hamels says he focuses on throwing strikes and PECOTA says he's due for a decline, but maybe they're both lying.

A good introduction for articles like this is a descriptive paragraph. The reader gets a nice little piece of prose, maybe a good simile or two before you drown them in heat maps, while potential critics get warned that the author does, when absolutely necessary, watch the games. Maybe there’s a Bradbury sentence about the sunshine, some flecks of historical context. A reference to the living crowd. The author picks a particular play or scene that transitions well into his or her narrative, applies paint to the brush, and has at it.

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PECOTA and Las Vegas don't always see eye to eye, but what if one is watching the other?

You shouldn’t bet on baseball.

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The results of our preseason experiment in expectations and perception.

Earlier this year, we released PECOTA projections for every major-league baseball player, and then I asked you to beat those projections. The instructions were simple: Find players you thought PECOTA was too optimistic on, and bet the under; find players you thought PECOTA was too pessimistic on, and bet the over. We called it a game and I promised to learn something from it. Here we are nearing the end of the season, so I’ll fulfill my obligation presently.

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