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July 19, 2013 6:00 am

Mid-Season Outliers

2

Baseball Prospectus

Summing up the seasons of some of the catchers, DHs, and relievers who've surprised so far.

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July 18, 2013 6:06 am

Mid-Season Outliers

0

Baseball Prospectus

Summing up the seasons of some of the outfielders who've surprised so far.

Over the All-Star break, we'll be highlighting some of the players who've overperformed or underperformed their projections during the first half by imagining what we might write about them if the Baseball Prospectus annual were updated today.

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July 17, 2013 5:00 am

Mid-Season Outliers

9

Baseball Prospectus

Summing up the seasons of some of the starting pitchers who've surprised so far.

Over the All-Star break, we'll be highlighting some of the players who've overperformed or underperformed their projections during the first half by imagining what we might write about them if the Baseball Prospectus annual were updated today.

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July 16, 2013 5:00 am

Mid-Season Outliers

7

Baseball Prospectus

Summing up the seasons of some of the first and third basemen who've surprised so far.

Over the All-Star break, we'll be highlighting some of the players who've overperformed or underperformed their projections during the first half by imagining what we might write about them if the Baseball Prospectus annual were updated today.

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July 15, 2013 5:00 am

Mid-Season Outliers

9

Baseball Prospectus

Summing up the seasons of some of the middle men who've surprised so far.

Over the All-Star break, we'll be highlighting some of the players who've overperformed or underperformed their projections during the first half by imagining what we might write about them if the Baseball Prospectus annual were updated today.


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March 20, 2012 3:00 am

Painting the Black: Naming the Next Breakout Team

10

R.J. Anderson

R.J. peers into his clouded crystal ball and selects the likeliest successor to the Diamondbacks' title as most surprisingly successful team.

We may not be wiser than projection systems, but we like to pretend we are anyway, especially when it comes to bold predictions. Make your bold prediction in the spring, forget about it in the summer, remember it in the fall, and spend the winter disowning it. Then do it all again next year. My chat from last week yielded this exchange and reminded me that the new prediction season is underway:

mdthomp (ILSTU): R.J, Which team do you expect to post the largest improvement on wins from last season? Also, who is going to be the opposite? My money is on the D-Backs to fall and the Nats to improve the most? What you think?

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September 8, 2010 8:00 am

Manufactured Runs: Solving the Mays Problem

12

Colin Wyers

What do you do when the peerless have peers?

So, we’ve been talking about revising the metrics we use here at Baseball Prospectus—I’ve described a fielding metric and a complementary batting metric. So now let’s go about discussing some of the ways they fit together.

One of the big things we need to do when we build all-encompassing metrics is adjust for position. That’s because of the way we construct our metrics—we have offensive metrics that compare players to all other players, but defensive metrics that compare players only to other players at that position.

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February 8, 2006 12:00 am

Developing Pitchers

0

Will Carroll

Will proposes a new system of developing young pitchers that marries science and coaching.

Johnny Sain and Leo Mazzone are simple folk wisdom passed down from guru to student, with the student eventually becoming the new guru. Of course, this wisdom does stand up to many of the tests science throws at it. With newer pitching coaches, science is entering the picture with

Tom House, Rick Peterson, and Glenn Fleisig leading the way. Still, we're leaving something on the table and leaving far too many pitchers headed to the table--the operating table.

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April 21, 2005 12:00 am

Crooked Numbers: April Fools

0

James Click

While April performances have to be regarded with a dose of skepticism, they shouldn't be dismissed entirely.

As an exercise in restraint, here are the Best and Worst hitters on April 30, 2004 as ranked by MLVr (min 50 PAs in April and 300 on the year):

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October 22, 2003 12:00 am

Getting PADE, Redux

0

James Click

Last time, we cooked up a way to remove park effects when looking at Bill James' Defensive Efficiency, a stat that measures the percentage of balls in play fielded by a team's defense. The new metric, tentatively called PADE, ranked teams on a zero-centered scale, showing how well a team performed against the league average with their given schedule. The intent was to more fairly judge defenses against each other rather than punish teams like Colorado and Boston for having to play in more difficult venues. As stated before, defense can be broken down into many facets, but the three most prevalent parts are park factors, pitching, and actual defensive performance. Since we've already figured out how to remove the first one--park factors--the next logical step is attempting to correct for pitching, leaving us closer to a metric that measures only defensive performance. To do this, we'll take a similar approach to the first version of PADE, but instead of defensive park factors, we'll use defensive pitcher factors. The first step is to determine an expected defensive efficiency for every pitcher, based on their career history.

As stated before, defense can be broken down into many facets, but the three most prevalent parts are park factors, pitching, and actual defensive performance. Since we've already figured out how to remove the first one--park factors--the next logical step is attempting to correct for pitching, leaving us closer to a metric that measures only defensive performance.

To do this, we'll take a similar approach to the first version of PADE, but instead of defensive park factors, we'll use defensive pitcher factors. The first step is to determine an expected defensive efficiency for every pitcher, based on their career history.

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