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Articles Tagged One-run Games 

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08-27

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27

Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or Lucky?
by
Russell A. Carleton

08-22

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3

BP Unfiltered: If One-Run Games Were All That Mattered
by
Ben Lindbergh

02-20

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19

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview
by
R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

12-30

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0

The BP Wayback Machine: Pitching to the Score
by
Greg Spira

11-03

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2

The Lineup Card: 9 World Series Heroes: The Year After
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-31

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11

Baseball ProGUESTus: Silly Goose: Mariano Rivera and the Myth of the Seven-Out Save
by
Kevin Baker

10-06

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4

The BP Wayback Machine: Is the Best of Five the Worst of Series?
by
Mike Carminati

10-05

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24

The Lineup Card: 10 Players Whose Careers Were Defined by Big Postseason Moments
by
Baseball Prospectus

09-28

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11

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Night in the Life of Team Entropy
by
Jay Jaffe

09-14

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47

The Lineup Card: Commissioner for a Day
by
Baseball Prospectus

07-26

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3

Divide and Conquer, NL West: Bochy Wins the Close Ones
by
Geoff Young

07-14

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20

Painting the Black: Mid-season Heroes and Goats, Part 2
by
R.J. Anderson

10-27

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16

World Series Prospectus: Fall Classic Memories
by
Baseball Prospectus

10-14

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17

Playoff Prospectus: ALCS Preview: Rangers vs. Yankees
by
Jay Jaffe

10-06

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46

Prospectus Hit List: The Finale
by
Jay Jaffe

11-01

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8

You Could Look It Up: He Should Have Picked Lee
by
Steven Goldman

10-29

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: From One to the Other
by
Jay Jaffe

10-28

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25

World Series Prospectus: Yankees versus Phillies Preview
by
Jay Jaffe

10-20

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67

Prospectus Today: Putting the Drama in Drama Season
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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42

Prospectus Today: A Triple Play of Division Series Post Mortems
by
Joe Sheehan

09-23

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6

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Underachieving Class of 2009
by
Jay Jaffe

07-31

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14

Prospectus Hit List: Deadline Drama
by
Jay Jaffe

07-10

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11

Prospectus Hit List: Back in the Saddle Again
by
Jay Jaffe

05-29

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10

Prospectus Hit List: Going Places
by
Marc Normandin

05-17

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12

Prospectus Q&A: Jim Palmer
by
David Laurila

05-01

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12

Prospectus Hit List: Back to Earth
by
Jay Jaffe

10-15

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4

You Could Look It Up: Drowning in Drama
by
Steven Goldman

10-08

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12

Playoff Prospectus: Dodgers versus Phillies
by
Jay Jaffe

09-21

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2

Every Given Sunday: Winding Down
by
John Perrotto

09-12

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Top to Bottom
by
Jay Jaffe

06-09

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0

Prospectus Today: Brave New Problems
by
Joe Sheehan

11-12

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0

You Could Look It Up: Sweepers, Part 3
by
Steven Goldman

10-12

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0

Playoff Prospectus: Indians versus Red Sox
by
Jay Jaffe

10-07

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Season Wrap-up
by
Jay Jaffe

10-04

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0

Playoff Prospectus: Yankees versus Indians
by
Jay Jaffe

10-04

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0

Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

07-11

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0

Looking Ahead
by
John Perrotto

06-08

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0

Prospectus Hit List: Padres Riding High
by
Jay Jaffe

11-02

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0

Is the Best of Five the Worst of Series?
by
Mike Carminati

10-21

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0

Prospectus Matchups: The 10 Biggest Mismatchups in World Series History
by
Jim Baker

10-16

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0

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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0

Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

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August 27, 2012 5:00 am

Baseball Therapy: One-Run Winners: Good or Lucky?

27

Russell A. Carleton

Do teams like the Orioles that excel in one-run games do so out of skill, or have they just gotten lucky?

A few weeks ago, the topic for the BP Lineup Card was "Unanswered questions for the second half." I noted that at the time, the Cardinals were several games behind both the Pirates and the Reds in the NL Central standings, despite the fact that they had a better Pythagorean record than either. In theory, the Cardinals should have been atop the NL Central.

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What would the standings look like if the only wins that counted were the ones in one-run games?

On Monday, reader "Kreylix" left this comment:

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February 20, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Preview: AL East 2012 Preseason Preview

19

R.J. Anderson and Jason Collette

Roundtable discussion of the most pressing issues facing each AL East team entering Spring Training

PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4







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We honor the memory of the late Greg Spira by republishing one of his best pieces as Jack Morris' Hall of Fame case returns to the spotlight.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

The late Greg Spira tackled the notion that certain hurlers "pitch to the score" in the following piece, which was originally published in Baseball Prospectus 1997.


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A look at how World Series icons performed after their October heroics

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Is Goose Gossage right to say that Mariano Rivera has it "easy?"

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Kevin Baker is a novelist and historian who is currently at work on a social history of New York City baseball, to be published by Pantheon.


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As three series head to Game Fives, we dig up an investigation of the five-game format's fairness.

While looking toward the future with our comprehensive slate of current content, we'd also like to recognize our rich past by drawing upon our extensive (and mostly free) online archive of work dating back to 1997. In an effort to highlight the best of what's gone before, we'll be bringing you a weekly blast from BP's past, introducing or re-introducing you to some of the most informative and entertaining authors who have passed through our virtual halls. If you have fond recollections of a BP piece that you'd like to nominate for re-exposure to a wider audiencesend us your suggestion.

As we prepare for the three remaining Division Series to be decided, revisit Mike Carminati's case for switching to a longer series format, which originally ran on November 2, 2006.


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10 players who, regardless of how well or poorly they played during the regular season, experienced career-defining moments in the playoffs

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September 28, 2011 5:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: A Night in the Life of Team Entropy

11

Jay Jaffe

The playoff races have been de-zombified, and Team Entropy was on the prowl, looking for meaningful baseball going into the final game.

Welcome to Team Entropy! Grab a seat on the couch, and here, have a beer. You've been invited to this party because after almost exactly six months and 160 games of regular-season baseball, you've suspended the need to root for a specific team and are working for the greater good, more interested in maximizing the amount of end-of-season chaos the remaining schedule can produce. The amount of season, even, if it comes to a 163rd game—or two.

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What would the BP team do if they were appointed commissioner for a day?

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When offense is difficult to come by, the Giants stand tall, but how do they stack up against history?

When the Giants lost to Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw, 1-0 last Wednesday, it was an unusual occurrence for the defending champs. No, not getting blanked by Kershaw; he is a great pitcher, and that will happen. It’s unusual that the Giants lost a one-run game. Even after falling to Kershaw, they are 27-13 in such contests this year (all statistics are through games of July 24), which helps explain why the team is doing so well (59-43 vs. 53-49 Pythagorean record) despite a pedestrian run differential. Their record in one-run games is tops in the big leagues, besting Philadelphia's 17-9.

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Concluding the two-part series by reviewing the best and worst first-half pitchers for each team.

To recap my methodology, here is what I wrote in the positional players’ piece earlier this week:

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