CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

Articles Tagged Nick Swisher 

Articles Tagged Nick Swisher

Open to all BP staff, One-Hoppers is the grab bag of anything baseball-related that anyone's seen or thought about. It can be something from an individual game, a splash of snark, breaking news or a reaction to same, tidbits of research, and more.

Search BP Articles

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives
No Previous Tag Entries Next Tag Entries >>

Should Nick Swisher's change in stance make us more willing to label his improvement in performance sustainable?

Over 6 weeks ago, Craig Brown wrote about Nick Swisher's unlikely batting average. At the time, Swisher was hitting .299. Craig crunched the numbers, and concluded that "Swisher’s days as a .300 hitter are likely in the rearview mirror as his BABIP and line drive rate normalize." Fast-forward to the present. After going 1-for-5 with a double last night against Mitch Talbot and friends, Swisher's average currently stands at—drumroll, please—.299. Contrary to Craig's expectations, the jovial right fielder with the .251 lifetime average remained a .300 hitter as recently as this time yesterday.

Read the full article...

The right fielder has slumped through the second half and the first two rounds of the playoffs, but can he bounce back?

Nick Swisher was a valuable member of the division-winning Yankees during the regular season. He has not been a valuable member of the now World Series-bound Bombers though, thanks to a line of .083/.083/.167 against the lowly Twins in the Division Series and a .152/.292/.150 showing against the Angels in the Championship round. Anyone is capable of two bad weeks, though (or a whole month, given the way playoff scheduling works these days), and with the Phillies and Yankees evenly matched in many ways, having Swisher at his best would be a big boost to the boys from the Bronx.

Read the full article...

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

November 14, 2008 4:02 pm

Transaction Analysis: Windy City Double Date

3

Christina Kahrl

Chicago's pair of division-winning clubs can't sit still, contributing to a very busy week of transactions.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

January 8, 2008 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: Breaking in the New Year

0

Christina Kahrl

The Swisher deal, Cardinal risks, and say Nomo forever.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

October 12, 2006 12:00 am

Player Profile

0

Marc Normandin

The A's second-best hitter showed considerable improvement in his second full season in the majors.

\nMathematically, leverage is based on the win expectancy work done by Keith Woolner in BP 2005, and is defined as the change in the probability of winning the game from scoring (or allowing) one additional run in the current game situation divided by the change in probability from scoring\n(or allowing) one run at the start of the game.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_18 = 'Adjusted Pitcher Wins. Thorn and Palmers method for calculating a starters value in wins. Included for comparison with SNVA. APW values here calculated using runs instead of earned runs.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_19 = 'Support Neutral Lineup-adjusted Value Added (SNVA adjusted for the MLVr of batters faced) per game pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_20 = 'The number of double play opportunities (defined as less than two outs with runner(s) on first, first and second, or first second and third).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_21 = 'The percentage of double play opportunities turned into actual double plays by a pitcher or hitter.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_22 = 'Winning percentage. For teams, Win% is determined by dividing wins by games played. For pitchers, Win% is determined by dividing wins by total decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_23 = 'Expected winning percentage for the pitcher, based on how often\na pitcher with the same innings pitched and runs allowed in each individual\ngame earned a win or loss historically in the modern era (1972-present).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_24 = 'Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitters plate appearances or a pitchers opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_25 = 'Batting average (hitters) or batting average allowed (pitchers).'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_26 = 'Average number of pitches per start.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_27 = 'Average Pitcher Abuse Points per game started.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_28 = 'Singles or singles allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_29 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_30 = 'Percentage of pitches thrown for balls.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_31 = 'The Baseline forecast, although it does not appear here, is a crucial intermediate step in creating a players forecast. The Baseline developed based on the players previous three seasons of performance. Both major league and (translated) minor league performances are considered.

The Baseline forecast is also significant in that it attempts to remove luck from a forecast line. For example, a player who hit .310, but with a poor batting eye and unimpressive speed indicators, is probably not really a .310 hitter. Its more likely that hes a .290 hitter who had a few balls bounce his way, and the Baseline attempts to correct for this.

\nSimilarly, a pitcher with an unusually low EqHR9 rate, but a high flyball rate, is likely to have achieved the low EqHR9 partly as a result of luck. In addition, the Baseline corrects for large disparities between a pitchers ERA and his PERA, and an unusually high or low hit rate on balls in play, which are highly subject to luck. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_32 = 'Approximate number of batting outs made while playing this position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_33 = 'Batting average; hits divided by at-bats. In PECOTA, Batting Average is one of five primary production metrics used in identifying a hitters comparables. It is defined as H/AB. '; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_34 = 'Bases on Balls, or bases on balls allowed.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_35 = 'Bases on balls allowed per 9 innings pitched.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_36 = 'Batters faced pitching.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_37 = 'Balks. Not recorded 1876-1880.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_38 = 'Batting Runs Above Replacement. The number of runs better than a hitter with a .230 EQA and the same number of outs; EQR - 5 * OUT * .230^2.5.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_39 = 'Batting runs above a replacement at the same position. A replacement position player is one with an EQA equal to (230/260) times the average EqA for that position.'; xxxpxxxxx1160675573_40 = 'Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitters EqR/27 or a pitchers EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

September 17, 2004 12:00 am

Transaction Analysis: August 30-September 15

0

Christina Kahrl

Chris Kahrl has all the roster expansion and early-September movings and shakings in this supersized edition of Transaction Analysis.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

No Previous Tag Entries Next Tag Entries >>