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Rereading a classic Nate Silver article.

In which BP debuts a new column, called Lies, Damned Lies.

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Reading one of many classic Nate Silver pieces.

In which everybody comes down on Boston.

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Reading one of Nate Silver's many classic articles.

We skip over Projected American League Dollar Values for 2003 and Projected National League Dollar Values for 2003 and How PECOTA Fared At Tout Wars, but do stop to spend a little time with Nate's final PECOTA piece of the spring.

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Rereading a classic Nate Silver article.

In which PECOTA says some things and Nate Silver says some other things...

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Rereading one of many classic Nate Silver articles.

In which Nate Silver invents Three True Outcome Percentage right before our very eyes. In which Nate Silver provides us a way of ranking Vin Mazzaro ahead of Aroldis Chapman in something.

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November 12, 2013 6:00 am

Pebble Hunting: Rereading Nate Silver: 5. The Colorado Effect


Sam Miller

Are the Rockies passig up a substantial advantage?

Note: This winter, I'm rereading and reviewing Nate Silver's entire archive here at BP. Today will be a longer one.

5. PECOTA at Altitude: A Review of Major League Hitters in Colorado
February 21, 2003

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July 30, 2012 5:00 am

Pebble Hunting: The Oakland A's and Getting Past Windows


Sam Miller

Should teams that aren't expected to contend really always be sellers?

In a three-week period last December, the A’s traded the only two starting pitchers who had thrown 200 innings for them in the previous year, and the team’s closer. The moves left the A's with a starting rotation of Brandon McCarthy, one empty spot, and three pitchers who had a) combined for 17 starts in their careers and b) had never appeared on a Baseball America top 100.

The state of the team’s rotation, though, didn’t seem to matter. The A’s were not playing for this year, and with three trades in three weeks they made that very clear. Rather than criticize the A’s for failing to put a competitive team on the field, it was safe to applaud Billy Beane for putting Oakland in a position to someday put a competitive team on the field, someday in the future, someday after 2012. They punted. A prudent move.

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Our latest book project combines some of the best work from BP's past and present, and it's coming soon.

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A look at our article aging curve and the most prolific authors of BP's past and present.

Baseball Prospectus rests on a foundation laid in large part by dissecting baseball numbers, but we’ve rarely turned the same inquisitive statistical eye inward. That’s as it should be, since despite our occasional delusions of grandeur, we know that you come here to consume the sausage, not to see it made (the sausage, in this case, being baseball writing). Still, in light of our recent roster additions and ongoing Wayback Machine series, I thought it might be fun to see how far we—and by "we," I mean the site, since I haven’t been around all that long—have come by looking back at our article publication trends and most prolific authors since our online incarnation went live in 1997.

All told, we’ve published 12,500 pieces of writing on the site—a number that will have been eclipsed by the time you read this sentence. The discrepancy between that total and the recent article ID numbers that show up in our URLs can be attributed almost entirely to unpublished drafts. (For those of you hoping for a Great Lost BP Album, forget it—most of them are blank.) At last count, 195 souls have gone far enough wrong somewhere in life to receive their own Baseball Prospectus bylines (most recently Alan M. Nathan, who by all accounts is quite a respectable fellow in other respects).

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To set up PECOTA week, here's a look back at how the sausage was made.

Welcome to PECOTA week here at Baseball Prospectus. All week, we'll be running content on the state of our projection system, covering where we're at and where we're going. To kick things off, let's pull back the curtain and have a look at the history of PECOTA production, which should answer a lot of questions readers have asked.

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To read Tim Kniker's Unfiltered post following up on one of the audience's suggested topics, surf here.

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We're deep into the stretch drive, with some races still being run, and some seemingly done. How do we model our in-season prediction of how things will wind up?

September is the month where the great pennant races happen. In the current three divisions plus a Wild Card set-up, baseball's focus gets placed on the playoff games in October, but it's easy to forget that once upon a time, and for a very long time, the year-long drama of the regular season was often more compelling than what happened during a week or two of World Series action.

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