Running down the recent draftees who could have the greatest fantasy impact.
In some ways, it’s a chicken or the egg argument as to whether the growing popularity of the MLB draft is leading to the boom in dynasty leagues, or whether the boom in dynasty leagues is leading to increased interest in the draft. Either way, it is much more common today for fantasy owners to pay attention on draft day, to get a glimpse of the players they are either going to be drafting later this month, this off season or throwing out at auctions in three-to-five years.
There has been much talk over the last year or so about the quality of this draft class, and while it certainly is great for major league organizations, it’s not ideal for those fantasy owners picking at the top of dynasty drafts. What this class makes up for in incredible depth, it lacks in potentially elite fantasy talent at the top. This means that instead of 2014 being a great year to be picking at the top of draft (sorry, those of you who were tanking to get Rodon last year), it is a great year to have multiple selections. Last year, Kris Bryant was the slam-dunk no. 1 option among Rule 4 draftees, but this year offers no such clarity. It also didn’t help that a few choice players in the top-10 went to organizations that are big detractors from their fantasy value. Just taking two examples, if Alex Jackson had gone to Colorado and Kyle Freeland to Seattle, there would be more net fantasy value in the draft. However, the opposite happened and we are now left in the balance by a combination of those rough home parks and the organizations’ abilities to develop those types of players in recent history.
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26. Inexact Science: Part I,I
Being drafted in the first round is no guarantee of future major-league stardom, much less even reaching the promised land. Among 1,198 players selected in the first round (June, regular phase only) from 1965-2009, only 827—or 69.0 percent—had ascended to the big leagues by the start of the 2014 season (no provision has been made for first-rounders drafted from 2010-13). Understandably, the success rate for first-round draft picks has climbed through the years as baseball scouting has become more sophisticated. From 1965-74, in the first decade of the draft’s existence, the success rate of first-rounders was only 62.9 percent; in the five-year period from 2005-09, it had jumped to 76.3 percent. But it has not been a steady, upward trend, as 75.2 percent of first-rounders reached the big leagues in the decade from 1985-94, while only 67.7 percent were successful from 1995-2004.
Breaking down the players who could most benefit their future fantasy owners in the 5x5 categories.
If you’ve been hanging around Baseball Prospectus over the past few weeks, you’ve certainly noticed the heavy draft content that we’ve had, driven by our draft guru Nick Faleris. Just about all of that information has been from a real-life baseball perspective, so now that these players have teams (and contracts hopefully soon), we can finally start digging into them from a fantasy perspective. Next week, I’m going to be releasing a top 50 list of 2014 draftees from a dynasty league perspective, but for now, we’re going to do something a little more high-level and fun.
With the first round now in the books (and analyzed by Faleris), it’s time to take a fun look at the players who are most likely to make a fantasy impact in each of the ten standard categories. We’re obviously a long way from knowing what these players are going to be (especially the ones at the prep ranks), but based on what we know now, here’s a quick run through out where some of the standout categorical contributions could come from this very deep draft class:
Continually updated video library of 2014 First-Year Player Draft prospects.
Welcome to the 2014 MLB Draft Video Library -- this space will feature periodic uploads of videos of 2014 MLB draft prospects from now through June. It will be updated every single day and the new videos for a particular week will be featured at the top of this page with the archived videos directly below. Chances are if you are looking for a draft prospect you will find some video of him on this page between now and June.
In the first of a two-part series, Allan takes you through 25 of the most notable moments and events in draft history.
Major League Baseball is conducting its 50th first-year player draft this week, and we thought it would be a golden opportunity to take a 50-year retrospective on the baseball draft as part of our general preview coverage of this year’s proceedings.
Naturally, we’ve enlisted our resident draft historian, Allan Simpson, to take a look back at some of the highlights—and lowlights—of the draft through the years and shed some of his own perspective on how the draft has evolved, and the impact it has had on the game.
If MLB teams made their draft decisions based on fantasy gamers' wishes, here's how the first round would unfold.
The 2014 MLB Draft is just two days away, and with this date comes a host of new fantasy prospects for dynasty leaguers to covet, debate, and decry. While this year’s crop of prep and college talent isn’t quite as impressive as some of what we’ve seen in the recent past, there’s still a bevy of young talent you can use to bolster your MiLB rosters or use as trade chips in an attempt to win now.
With the draft just around the corner, Craig and I were looking for a way to deliver original content to our readers. And then we hit on this idea: What if we created a format in which we assigned each team one player, then explained our reasoning for why each player should end up with said team? It would be like a draft mock-up. A mock draft, if you will. Groundbreaking, we know.
Join Jason Parks and Joe Hamrahi for a night of food, drinks, and draft analysis
Join Jason Parks, Joe Hamrahi, and other baseball friends and colleagues this Thursday, June 5th for a special Baseball Prospectus MLB Draft party at Foley's NYC. There will be plenty of food, drinks, #analysis and #want in a nice informal setting. Festivities should begin around 6:30 PM. Hope to see you there!
Please note that the players are ranked on the basis of raw talent, with minor consideration given to any signability issues—or, in more cases, possible injuries—that might impact a player’s standing in the draft.