Jason Giambi and Ken Griffey Jr. won the Comeback Player of the Year Award in their leagues as voted by the fans. Is there a more objective way of handing out the award?
This bounceback comes in three steps: the first peak, the valley and the second peak. In order for a player to qualify for our 2005 Objective Rebound Award (or ORA, because we love acronyms and we're hoping that the winner has that special something about him), the second peak should come in 2005. For the initial run, we're only going to consider players whose first peak came in 2003 and valley came in 2004. Later, we'll open it up to look at larger windows, up to five years from peak to peak. Although the subjective Comeback Awards are given out by league, we'll make no such distinction here, to avoid having to split playing time across leagues.
Overall, the level of the rebound is measured by the distance dropped plus the distance gained back, or (Peak 1 VORP - Valley VORP) + (Peak 2 VORP - Valley VORP). Although this method would leave us open to having some rebounds that appeared large because of one large peak on either end, there are so many seasons in question that the highest rebounds end up having large peaks on each end. Once we start to limit the sample sizes down to three consecutive years ending in 2005, you get some interesting "rebounds." Although we could place limits on these, it would take arbitrary cut-offs, and since it's an inexact science and simply a toy at this point, we can eliminate these by sight as they come up.
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Notebook catches up with the latest news out of Baltimore, and takes a look at Ken Griffey Jr.'s resurgent--and historic--season in Cincy.
W-L ERA RA G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
22-20 4.44 4.90 163 68 501 8.5 1.6 3.8 7.8
The hurler, Bruce Chen, pitched those 163 games with eight different major-league squads. The implication of such frequent movement from team to team is that something is wrong with Chen, but there's really nothing too terrible in that career line. The results (ERA/RA) are average, most probably due to the combination of an above average strikeout rate and a below-average HR rate.
Our view of the season would be very different if it had played out exactly in reverse to reality. James rewinds the year, and shows us how.
The length of the baseball season can easily obscure some important trends that are developing. Teams like the A's get noticed because their rise from the depths has been so dramatic that it breaks free of the mass of information built before its arrival. But there are may other trends that can easily escape our eyes because so much of the season has already passed.
The Red Sox have a glut of starting pitchers--and may need all of them. The Reds have a glut of outfielders--and may need all of them. The Padres' offense looks similar to the 2004 version--they need more.
While the average player peaks between the ages of 26 and 28, individuals have a great variety of career paths. Chaim Bloom takes a look at what happens to players who have big seasons before turning 24.
This crucial knowledge informs every team's player moves, and when it does not, leads us to question them. For instance:
Will Carroll chimes in with a UTK Sunday Extra, reporting on Ken Griffey's latest injury, plus status reports on Derek Jeter, Kevin Millwood, and more.
For those of you not on Premium … well, what's your excuse? … this is an opportunity to see what you're missing. I hope you'll like this glance behind the curtain. Remember that Joe Sheehan, the amazing PECOTA system, and a regular roll call of BP's authors also show up on BP Premium.
Before we proceed further, know that I take no joy in watching an All-Century Team player's career so ruthlessly derailed.
Long-time readers of my columns will remember the scathing denunciations I leveled on Junior for trying to screw his old team on
his way out of Seattle. Griffey said straight out that he'd use his 10-and-5 rights to veto a trade to Cincinnati if the Reds
had to give up too much to get him.
However, we're all guilty of occasionally giving in to our darker sides, so why should Griffey be any different? We should cut
him the same slack that we hope for when we lapse into the less-than-noble, selfish half of our personality.
On Thursday, three months of speculation came to an end as the Seattle
Mariners traded Ken Griffey Jr. to the Cincinnati Reds for Mike
Cameron, Brett Tomko, shortstop prospect Antonio Perez
and relief prospect Jake Meyer. For more information on Perez and
take a look at their Davenport Translations.