The head of our stats team dives into his favorite gems within this new world of data.
As we prepared for Catchella, I spent a fair amount of time sifting through the data—65 years of it, to be exact. There are many stories and analyses to run, but there are just a bunch of fun things that I noticed while playing in the sandbox.
Brad Ausmus is one of the most durable and valuable receivers on record: 1st in blocking runs, 2nd in framing runs, 11th in throwing runs, 1st in total runs...suddenly on the fringe of the Hall of Fame. Is he more Mark Belanger or Ozzie Smith? Either way, the man managing the Tigers these days hasn’t completely given up the tools of ignorance.
The Brewer is on the verge of being a bona fide stud at the catcher position.
In early August 2014, Jonathan Lucroy was the top-producing fantasy catcher, and it wasn’t exactly close. He was so far clear of second place that it took an otherworldly performance from Buster Posey over the final two months to surpass the 28-year-old backstop. Still, Lucroy established himself as an elite fantasy option at the catcher position. Owners who drafted him, on average, did so outside the top-five catchers– and those owners were collecting massive surplus value throughout the entire year.
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The Brewers backstop has emerged as a darkhorse MVP candidate, but his is improvement at the plate sustainable?
Approach at the plate has been on my mind in recent weeks. I’ve been specifically ruminating on the learned aspect of plate discipline; for example, how gifted 20-something hitters who have otherworldly hand-eye coordination can learn to eschew a simple bat-to-ball approach and focus on quality pitches to hit. That is to say, how can hitters develop the inner filter to discern between pitches they can hit and pitches they should hit, or which pitches they can merely hit and which pitches they can drive.
Obviously, such a development would be desirable for any player, and it can happen for many different reasons. Maybe it’s a maturation process. Maybe it’s a new pitching coach who presents the information in a different way. Maybe it’s trial and error. Maybe it’s studying the numbers. But I’ve been more convinced that most big-league hitters are only able to carve out sustained success over multiple seasons if they can adjust and refine their approach at the plate, at least to some degree.
The Royals score 11 runs off a defending Cy Young winner for the second straight day, the A's continue to trouble Yu Darvish, and much more action from Tuesday.
The Tuesday Takeaway
For much of Angels starter Matt Shoemaker’s career, the odds have been stacked against him. Shoemaker went undrafted out of Eastern Michigan—where he had a 4.83 ERA and 1.36 strikeout-to-walk ratio in three seasons—and spent parts of the next seven years in the Angels’ minor league system before making his major league debut last September. On Tuesday night, Shoemaker toed the rubber against the Indians for what turned out to be the best outing of his short big league career, and he was well on his way to a complete game before a short rain delay in the ninth inning brought a premature end to his night.
On a per-game basis, Sale has arguably been the best starting pitcher in baseball this season, but it was Scherzer who stole the show with a complete-game shutout to bust himself out of a string of shaky starts. The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner had been knocked around in his previous four outings, serving up at least eights hits, a home run, and four runs in each of them.
From Buster Posey to Christian Bethancourt, this list is loaded with both big leaguers and high-upside prospects.
Because dynasty league rankings are relatively league dependent, I set up parameters for ranking the players below (and the ones who will follow at other positions). The list here presupposes a 16-team standard dynasty format, in which there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever, and owners have minor-league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. Feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2014 ETAs down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or league–only formats.
The catcher position is a tricky one, as there are a lot of players at or near the top of the list who may be playing another position in three or so years. That, plus with most leagues using one active catcher, prospects are featured a little more prominently due to both the major-league depth right now and the fact that there are diminishing returns to carrying too many backstops.
This showdown between 27-year-old catchers might be closer than you think.
Today’s “Tale of the Tape” focuses on a pair of 27-year-old catchers from a pair of midwestern cities: Cleveland’s Carlos Santana and Milwaukee’s Jonathan Lucroy. Both finished 2013 as top-five catchers sans Victor Martinez, with the Brewer getting the better of the Indian (no. 3 to no. 5). While that might surprise some people given Santana’s pedigree as a top-flight prospect and Lucroy’s quiet ascent to the top, that doesn’t mean one is overrated and one is underrated. Both catchers are in their primes and should continue to provide top-five upside in 2014; today’s exercise examines who has a better chance of finishing the season on top. Mike Gianella lists Santana and Lucroy as four-star players and ranks them back-to-back at no. 4 and no. 5, respectively, so choosing between the two on draft day could come down to a matter of personal preference.
One look at the career batting averages of Lucroy and Santana makes it clear: Lucroy holds the decisive edge. Lucroy’s .279 career BA dwarfs Santana’s .254, albeit in 410 fewer plate appearances. Dragging Santana’s career average down is a .239 showing in 2011; he rebounded with a .252 mark the following season and even more so with a .268 average in 2013. Lucroy, meanwhile, added 55 points to his .265 in 2011, hitting .320 in 2012 before coming down to earth with a .280 average last year. Lucroy also holds a decisive advantage with a career .306 BABIP (compared to .281 for Santana), and his contact rates are far superior. Additionally, there’s a clear edge among the duo’s strikeout rates—especially when it comes to last season (11.9 percent for Lucroy, 17.1 percent for Santana). Lucroy’s batting average is his greatest advantage.
Notes from the fantasy staff on several backstops you should consider selecting in your drafts this spring.
As our eminent leader Bret Sayre outlined in the Baseball Prospectus draft prep guide, the fantasy staff here at BP is aiming to bring you a comprehensive look at each and every position on a weekly basis. From prospects to veterans, superstars to scrubs and sleepers to potential busts, we want you to have a thorough understanding of every player at every position when you hit your drafts this winter and next spring.
With that in mind, we’ve polled the fantasy staff here for a player to target and a player to avoid for each position, to run every Monday and Friday, respectively. We don’t always agree on every player, which is why you’ll see some names pop up more than once, but we hope those debates give you even more insight as to who you should or shouldn’t select on draft day.
A fantasy-oriented look at the present and future behind the dish.
The beginning of each week of pre-season positional coverage here at BP is going to kick off with a high-level view of that position before we start diving too deeply into rankings, individual players and the like. And as a reminder, here is what the rest of the week’s schedule will look like:
You might have missed these 10 players' fine fantasy campaigns, but don't let them sneak up on you in 2014.
Are you running out the clock on a title run? Fighting off a team or two nipping at your heels to hold onto said title? Are you the nipper? Perhaps your season was over in August when a rash of injuries made that comeback just too far-fetched.
I certainly hope the majority of you are taking part in one of the first three scenarios, but regardless of where you fall on this spectrum, you likely missed some nice seasons in 2013. I don’t just mean those by players who weren’t on your fantasy team. You may have missed them altogether, because they weren’t on a competitor’s team or playing a lot of games against your hometown team. Here is a closer look at 10 solid fantasy seasons from sub-.500 clubs, which may have missed your radar in 2013.
The best and worst receivers of the week(s) and year, with end-of-season minor-league stats.
2013 League Leaders
Welcome back. We’re going to start things off a little differently this time. These are the top five framers of 2013, according to Max Marchi’s model, through the end of August (it takes time to run, so it’s updated monthly). Negative numbers are runs saved, and numbers inside parentheses are called pitches.