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The Blue Jays came very close to exceeding their bonus allotment for amateur draft picks.

Under the terms of the new CBA, teams that exceed their annual allotment for amateur draft picks signing bonuses by more than five percent forfeit their first-round pick for the following year. That's a pretty harsh penalty. Up to five percent, though, they simply pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. That might come to a few hundred thousand dollars, which isn't insignificant, but it's nothing compared to the expected value of a first-round pick. So, to recap: going over by less than five percent: potentially costly. Going over by more than five percent: potentially really​ costly.

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We promised we'd make it up to you and we did. We have the usual great emails, and two weeks of prospect lists to catch up on, but the special guests are the highlights. First, we're joined by both Jim Callis of Baseball America and Keith Law of ESPN to discuss the process of making a Top 100 (or 101) prospect list, as well as some differences we have and how the public reacts that lists. Then, in light of this week's big news, Mark Fainaru-Wada joins me to talk about the process that went into breaking the Ryan Braun in December as well as the righteous indignation that has come with the reaction. Then it's a bit of the goofy stuff and we're all done. As always, we hope you enjoy.

We promised we'd make it up to you and we did. We have the usual great emails, and two weeks of prospect lists to catch up on, but the special guests are the highlights. First, we're joined by both Jim Callis of Baseball America and Keith Law of ESPN to discuss the process of making a Top 100 (or 101) prospect list, as well as some differences we have and how the public reacts that lists. Then, in light of this week's big news, Mark Fainaru-Wada joins me to talk about the process that went into breaking the Ryan Braun story in December as well as the righteous indignation that has come with the reaction. Then it's a bit of the goofy stuff and we're all done. As always, we hope you enjoy.

Note: We do alert you to the presence of the occasional adult language and subject matter. Don't say we didn't warn you.

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Jason returns to the show and establishes his presence with authority with tales from the bodega, specially Juan Deli. But before the goofy stuff, we talk about why Logan Morrison's demotion really isn't that big of a deal, discuss Jim Thome's tremendous face and get into a long bit on outfield prospects. Then we are joined by special guest Jim Callis of Baseball America to discuss what happened and what didn't at Monday's signing deadline, and if there is any way to fix it, or if it even needs fixing. As always, we hope you enjoy.

Jason returns to the show and establishes his presence with authority with tales from the bodega, specially Juan Deli. But before the goofy stuff, we talk about why Logan Morrison's demotion really isn't that big of a deal, discuss Jim Thome's tremendous face and get into a long bit on outfield prospects. Then we are joined by special guest Jim Callis of Baseball America to discuss what happened and what didn't at Monday's signing deadline, and if there is any way to fix it, or if it even needs fixing. As always, we hope you enjoy.

Reminder: Jason and I will be hosting a drinking event for podcast listeners this Friday at Lunasa on the lower east side (that's New York City, folks) beginning at 8:30 pm, and we hope to see you there.

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Draft preview, Jim Callis of Baseball America and a call for an expert in the field of thermodynamics. What else can we really do at this point?

Draft preview, Jim Callis of Baseball America and a call for an expert in the field of thermodynamics. What else can we really do at this point?

Note: We do alert you to the presence of the occasional adult language and subject matter. Don't say we didn't warn you.

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Jim Callis of Baseball America joins us to talk about Monday's draft signing deadline and the future of the draft itself. Also, what minor league numbers do and do not mean, Kevin's adventures in morning television, and we cook a recipe from a listener.

I know we say this often, but in listening back through the editing process, this might be my favorite episode ever -- it just had that vibe.  Our special guest is Jim Callis, the Executive Editor of Baseball America, who gives us nearly an hour to discuss what happened on Monday's draft signing deadline, as well as speculating on the future of the draft.  It's a fascinating discussion filled with insight and information that you may not of heard before.  Before than, Jason and I talk about the concept of being over-matched, as well as what minor league numbers can and can not mean when projecting future performance.  Of course, we end with hijinks, including a discussion of my morning television adventures and we actually prepared a recipe sent in by a listener.  As always, we hope you enjoy, and we've been absolutely flattered by all the great emails we get, so keep 'em coming.

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June 2, 2005 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Four

0

Rany Jazayerli

Having established that there is no longer any difference between high schoolers and collegians in the draft, the question now is, "why not?"

Reader after reader responded with their own theory as to what could cause teams to do a significantly better job of drafting high-school talent, even as they drafted more high-school players. And each response looked frighteningly liked the last: it's the signing bonuses, stupid.

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May 25, 2005 12:00 am

Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Three

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Rany Jazayerli

Rany Jazayerli has more on draft history, including a conclusion that may surprise you.

  • College players taken in the first three rounds are about 50% more likely to reach the majors than high school players;
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    May 19, 2005 12:00 am

    Doctoring The Numbers: The Draft, Part Two

    0

    Rany Jazayerli

    What pool of players to emphasize at the draft table--college or high-school--is one of the game's ongoing debates. The data indicates that one group has a decisive edge in value.

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    For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:

    Can a "can't-miss prospect" miss?

    Will young pitchers really break your heart?

    Last year, in a highly entertaining Baseball Prospectus roundtable Joe Sheehan remarked:

    I would submit that there are no circumstances in which a pitcher is the best prospect in baseball.

    To which Derek Zumsteg replied:

    If a pitcher can't be the best prospect in baseball, can he be the #2? Can he be the #3?

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    Will young pitchers really break your heart?

    Last year, in a highly entertaining Baseball Prospectus roundtable Joe Sheehan remarked:

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