The Tigers look to Doug Fister in their bid to even the series.
Boston was able to snag a victory from Justin Verlander and the Tigers behind a phenomenal performance from John Lackey and a solo home run by Mike Napoli. Here are the projected lineups and PECOTA odds as Boston looks to put a stranglehold on the series with a win in Game Four:
The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.
Not a subscriber?
Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.
Boston gets ready to host its first ALCS in five years while Tampa Bay prepares to possibly wave good-bye to David Price.
A fascinating series filled with late drama, unexpected defensive meltdowns, an unlikely walkoff, and a season’s worth of managerial decisions ended in the worst possible way Tuesday night—with Mike Napoli dancing shirtless.
Will the Rays make good on Joe Maddon's promise to return to "lovely" Boston?
With the Rays having staved off elimination yet again at the hands of unlikely hero Jose Lobaton, the two division rivals will continue their series for one more game in Tampa Bay. Here is a look at the PECOTA odds and projected lineups for Game Four:
A special trade deadline edition of the watch list, in which Mike and Bret recap the fantasy impact of every salient deal.
Welcome to a very special episode of Baseball ProspectusFree Agent Watch. We have decided to don our tuxedos and tails and present a trade deadline edition for your general amusement and edification. So sit back, enjoy this brief montage of classic bloopers and exciting plays, and then join us on the other side as we take a look at the players traded at the deadline and the fantasy impact these trades will have on your league.
Sam plays GM and auctions off Chicago's most valuable trade bait to the highest bidder.
Around this time of year, we hear plenty of trade offers that are offered, and demands that are demanded. It’s wise to take all of these with loads of salt. Sometimes rumors get leaked because they are self-serving; sometimes they get leaked once they’ve been passed around and distorted; sometimes by the time they get leaked they’re outdated. And, of course, there are many, many more offers/discussions/demands that don’t get reported. Without the full range of context, it’s hard to really evaluate what we do hear.
What we wanted to do here is conduct an experiment to see what sort of range of offers really would develop when a dozen or so teams are kicking the tires on a hot trade deadline piece. We declared Jake Peavy available to the highest bidder. And we assigned 11 contending teams to 11 writers; each writer, playing the role of GM, fashioned a bid for Peavy. Unlike mock trades that purport to balance both sides’ interest (but rarely do), these are purely calculated: they reflect only the self-interested desires of GMs who really want a player but really don’t want to give up any more talent, or take on any more money, than they have to.
Justin Verlander has looked mortal lately, and on Thursday he was hit hard again by the AL's worst offense.
The Thursday Takeaway
The series finale between the White Sox and Tigers may have been the league’s main attraction yesterday afternoon, drawing fans of both teams and those eager to see the pitching matchup of Justin Verlander and Jake Peavy, as well as scouts evaluating the latter for prospective trade-deadline buyers.
Peavy held serve for those eyeing his services, tossing seven-plus innings of four-run ball, over which he permitted only four hits and two walks while striking out seven. The 32-year-old’s outing might have looked better had manager Robin Ventura turned to his bullpen to begin the eighth inning. But the skipper let Peavy—whose pitch count was well into the triple digits—return to the bump, and he promptly served up a home run by Brayan Pena, the third long ball authored against him on the afternoon. With 118 pitches, 74 of them strikes, on the counter, Ventura finally took the ball from his workhorse no. 2 starter and handed it to Matt Lindstrom, who combined with closer Addison Reed to protect the 7-4 lead.
Can you tell which pitches will leads to hits and which will lead to outs without seeing the results?
If we want to evaluate a pitch, there are few things we can focus on. We can look at the qualities of the pitch itself as it moves toward home plate, including movement, pitch type, and location. We can look at the catcher's glove, to see how much it moves from its target. We can look at the batter, to see how balanced he is as he swings at it. And we can look at the result: hit, out, stung, dribbled. I have a theory, which is that we (non-scouts) are mostly unable to make much of the first, second and third ways. That, mostly, we only remember the fourth.
So what follows is an experiment. I don't know what the point of this experiment is or what it will show. I don't know the best way to conduct this experiment. This might be an experiment I revisit in a better form someday in the future. But the experiment is simple, and I think it will be interesting, and I can't wait.
Pleasant 2012 surprises James McDonald and Jake Peavy are among this week's top two-start pitchers.
This is what happens when I trust Clay Buchholz. He faced Miami in back-to-back starts and initially demolished them at home, running his streak to four straight great games (which is why he got the seal of approval as a “start”), but the Fish smashed him for five runs on nine hits in six innings in their rematch. The silver lining is that he managed to get the win since Ricky Nolasco was even worse.
Of the three other AL “starts,” all of whom were relative no-names, it was actually Scott Diamond facing the Pirates in Pittsburgh who did the worst, surprisingly enough. After seven straight starts of three earned runs or fewer, he has allowed four in back-to-back outings against the Phillies and Pirates. Matt Harrisonand Tommy Milone were excellent in their initial starts of the week, including a complete game from Milone.